Deaths from Covid alone in 2020 = 9,400

[Whydidimarryhim]

There has been a freedom of information release from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) - Jan 7th 22
There data show that total deaths from Covid in 2020 - this is the number of deaths from adults who had NO underlying issues ie heart disease/diabetes etc - the total No is 9400.
From Jan 2021 to Sept 2021 the total deaths from Covid alone - was 0-64 age range = 2225 and 65+ 5746. All this is for England and Wales
This information is on utube from Dr John Campbell - He has been covering Covid since late 2019.
What is interesting is that this info hasn’t been on the news.

@Flyonawalk

We get ‘one of these threads’ regularly because this is enormous news.

We shut down the world in 2020 for a mortality rate no higher than in 2008, 2007, 2006 and every other year since reliable recording began.

This should be a huge story leading to widespread investigation and a change to future planning.

As a poster pointed out to you on just the page before (and on other threads) what is shocking is that we've lost over a decade of progress regarding reducing mortality in the UK.

Rates have been steadily decreasing in the UK until now.

Another classic misuse of statistics to serve an agenda.

How would you do this with our borders?

South Korea managed.

I heard a British journalist based in South Korea describing his journey back from the UK winter 2020. Arriving in the UK, he just got off the plane and onto the tube to go home, was in lockdow with restaurants, pubs, schools etc closed. Firstly he needed a negative covid test before he could board the plane. When the plane landed before being allowed off the plane everyone had a temperature check. They were then all taken to an open aircraft hanger sort of building and tested for covid. They all had to wait there hours for the results. Everyone was negative despite this a random 10% were kept back for retesting. After this he was taken to a cap with a sealed off back, separating him from the driver to take him to his flat were he lived alone (don't know what the do for families). He had to stay in his flat for two weeks and had to have an app on his phone and tape on his door. He was checked on repeatedly during this time. When his time was done and more negative tests were done he could come out and the streets were packed, the restaurants were packed cinema was open, life was normal.

On the radio people said we would never put up with sure restrictions here but the way I see it we had much more restrictions on us because of lockdowns.

Getting to zero covid would be difficult because of road freight, but not impossible. Plus it would count on the rest of the world going for zero covid, not impossible when it was only in a handful of countries and it was the first strain. I think China is going for zero covid, unfortunately I don't think its realistic now with omicron being more infectious and becoming endemic in other countries.

As a poster pointed out to you on just the page before (and on other threads) what is shocking is that we've lost over a decade of progress regarding reducing mortality in the UK.

Not true.
Life expectancy was actually falling amongst the poorest communities in the UK (pre covid) due to austerity.

We shut down the world in 2020 for a mortality rate no higher than in 2008, 2007, 2006 and every other year since reliable recording began.

Not true.

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Getting to zero covid would be difficult because of road freight, but not impossible.

What would your solution be for road freight?

I think some of these ideas are fanciful. I don’t think any experts have suggested eradication is possible either at any stage. Or said how U.K. would solve the porous borders.

But if you do have articles etc I’d be interested.

@Kendodd

As a poster pointed out to you on just the page before (and on other threads) what is shocking is that we've lost over a decade of progress regarding reducing mortality in the UK.

Not true.
Life expectancy was actually falling amongst the poorest communities in the UK (pre covid) due to austerity.

Population level mortality was increasing in the UK @Kendodd, I don't disagree that this wasn't true when stratifying on difference demographic groups

It is incorrect as the previous poster implied that the pandemic has not had led to increases in mortality comapared to trends across the last decade.

I thought it was 28 days from a positive test and not actually from covid?

@CovidCurious my mum died 7 weeks ago. Hers has only one. Is that unusual?

It was a good strategy before omicron and still might be after

France had half a million cases the other day plus restrictions whereas London which is ahead of the curve is definitely falling, others will follow

Our peak was lower. Maybe boosters helped too but fine. Better all round

But specifically regarding omicron, all the reports I’ve seen say that previous infections have very little impact on an individual level; indeed people appear more likely to suffer a repeat infection sooner which, as long as it remains mild, isn’t really an issue in itself but does have an impact whilst isolation requirements remain.

This might change as more is studied but the official line is that a previous infection has no bearing on the spread of omicron. I suppose India might offer a clearer answer on the effects of a previous infection regarding omicron.

Ultimately though, explaining why we’ve had a lower case rate than France in this wave isn’t clear enough to be conclusive at this point. It’s certainly to early to attribute the summer/autumn strategy to it, especially when other evidence points to it being unlikely.

@Cornettoninja

It was a good strategy before omicron and still might be after

France had half a million cases the other day plus restrictions whereas London which is ahead of the curve is definitely falling, others will follow

Our peak was lower. Maybe boosters helped too but fine. Better all round

But specifically regarding omicron, all the reports I’ve seen say that previous infections have very little impact on an individual level; indeed people appear more likely to suffer a repeat infection sooner which, as long as it remains mild, isn’t really an issue in itself but does have an impact whilst isolation requirements remain.

This might change as more is studied but the official line is that a previous infection has no bearing on the spread of omicron. I suppose India might offer a clearer answer on the effects of a previous infection regarding omicron.

Ultimately though, explaining why we’ve had a lower case rate than France in this wave isn’t clear enough to be conclusive at this point. It’s certainly to early to attribute the summer/autumn strategy to it, especially when other evidence points to it being unlikely.

Why then were the previous waves in SA mentioned as a positive?

If you go to the graphs thread others have suggested the same. This thread probably isn’t as good for analysis, and posters there are good at dissecting information.

@joydivisionovengloves71

I thought it was 28 days from a positive test and not actually from covid?

OK, one more time for the people at the back.

We have three methods of calculating deaths from Covid.

1. deaths of people who tested positive for Covid in the prior 28 days. Very quick and automated, which is important if you're using it to inform policy decisions. Overcounts people who may have died from random causes shortly after recovering from Covid. Undercounts people who weren't tested especially in early 2020 and people who die of the effects of Covid after a long period.
2. deaths marked in their death certificate as being due to Covid i the opinion of the attending doctor. Reliable but slow. Probably undercounts in early 2020.
3. Excess deaths over previous years. Easily comparable across nations which may report Covid deaths in different ways. Requires some slightly sophisticated calculations to adjust completely for ageing population but the raw data is still informative.

All three have their pros and cons which is why we look at all three to see if they tell the same story...which they do.

[quote AlDanvers]@CovidCurious my mum died 7 weeks ago. Hers has only one. Is that unusual?[/quote]
@AlDanvers I'm sorry for your loss. In my experience, yes, it is very unusual.

@hamstersarse

I don’t know how accurate this is but on the back of this a stat has been produced that the average life lost is 7 weeks.

Extremely inaccurate I would say.

More like 10 years @hamstersarse

@Sunnyd71 that report has been discredited. I will try to find a source.

It hinged on the assumption that if someone reaches a particular age, say 82, they will likely reach 90. In the case of care home residents, for example, that is false. The average stay in a care home is about two years as residents are usually frail. So an 82 year old care home resident is very unlikely to reach 90. Obviously a tragic number of care home residents were lost to covid.

There have also been analyses done of years of life lost to lockdowns, eg a 30 year old whose illness is now untreatable may have lost 50 or 60 years. We know that education is strongly related to health and longevity. Damage to education will have shortened many lives. More will become known about this in coming years.

It has been clear to some of us for a long time that years of life lost to lockdown will dwarf years of life lost to covid.

@CovidCurious thank you. I do have a few concerns about what happened and the explanation.

I will try and figure out who I need to talk to. But thank you

Also sorry for the derail.

"And if the excess deaths were caused by lockdown they wouldn't show the patterns they do. They track case numbers, not lockdowns. The tail end of each lockdown shows deaths below normal levels."

That is an excellent point

I think the point is that young/middle aged healthy people were made to feel terrified of Covid, as a form of control.

"Anyone can catch it, anyone can spread it, anyone can die of it" etc.

@Blubells

I suspect that if under 10s had been dying at the same rate as over 80s the world response would have been very different

Of course. As a society it's in our interest to protect the young who've got their whole lives ahead of them!

Well we've not done such a great job of that, with over 70,000 of them disabled with long covid, have we?

Just over 20% Covid deaths come from just under 1% of the population - the over 90s.

m.imgur.com/no96buC

@hestershaw1

Well thats acurate.... anyone can catch it. However there was alot of bull about children beingnunable to catch it which we now know anyone can catch it.

Ditto if you catch it you can spread. Not sure why this was a shock to you.

And ues anyone can die. Statistically some people are more at risk, others are less at risk but on an individual level know one can be sure they wouldnt die. Remember the shock deaths that were reported in 2020. People that on paper should have been low risk. So yes anyone can die.

Additiobally anyone could get longnc9vid complications

@HesterShaw1

I think the point is that young/middle aged healthy people were made to feel terrified of Covid, as a form of control.

"Anyone can catch it, anyone can spread it, anyone can die of it" etc.

Indeed - the overwhelming vast majority of people who catch covid will suffer only mild symptoms. This has been true all along - nothing has changed. Even among the most vulnerable groups you are more likely to survive than not.

Sadly, given the highly contagious nature of coronavirus, it was always inevitable that some people would die regardless of the efforts to control the disease.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Indeed - the overwhelming vast majority of people who catch covid will suffer only mild symptoms. This has been true all along - nothing has changed. Even among the most vulnerable groups you are more likely to survive than not.

Sadly, given the highly contagious nature of coronavirus, it was always inevitable that some people would die regardless of the efforts to control the disease.

Lots of assertions here. What is your medical definition of 'mild'? How can you possibly know how Covid will affect a vulnerable person - given the range of conditions?

And it isn't the contagious nature of the virus that leads to deaths; it is the virulence.

[quote Kendodd]We shut down the world in 2020 for a mortality rate no higher than in 2008, 2007, 2006 and every other year since reliable recording began.

Not true.

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates[/quote]
It is correct for the UK :
In 2008 the standardised mortality rate was 1091 per 100000 and so on down the years
In 2020 the standardised mortality rate was 1043 per 100000

2019 had a statistically significantly lower mortality rate compared to all other years at 925 per 100000. Some scientists said this explained some of the excess deaths in 2020 as there were more vulnerable elderly but they were ridiculed for that.

www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsintheukfrom1990to2020

Child mortality was lower in 2020 than 2019 according to a BMJ article I read which is interesting

@OperationRinka It wasn't 12 years of improvements as the mortality rate had started to climb back up from 978 in 2011 to 993 in 2015. Then it stayed static for 3 years. It was discussed quite a lot back then.