Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Well, over 100k people just tested positive yesterday - and those were the ones who know about it

The latest ONS figures estimate that over 3m people had covid in the UK last week, around 1 in 20

Getting cases lower than that, by relatively mild mitigations and avoiding lockdown, is not unreasonable suppression.

Were the figures of 20-60k based on the actual numbers of people with infections or on the smaller number who have taken a test, had it come back positive and recorded it?

We had a drop from 4.3m to 3.5 (iirc) according to ONS

The idea that plan B wouldn’t be enough to avoid lockdown surely must be defunct by now.

Every country is talking about omicron peak then expecting subsequent fall.

also, the 7 day figure for deaths is 266 and tending upwards.

That is hundreds of deaths per day and still growing in anyone's reckoning, surely?

20k was the number of cases. 60k was the number of infections.

These were high level estimates - they need to be adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, etc.

Re: deaths - I think someone here has already referenced the BBC article that highlights the issue of “incidental deaths”:

www.bbc.com/news/health-60000391

This is something that has been laboured by “lockdown skeptics” throughout the pandemic but it has never been true… up until now.

@MarshaBradyo

We had a drop from 4.3m to 3.5 (iirc) according to ONS

The idea that plan B wouldn’t be enough to avoid lockdown surely must be defunct by now.

Every country is talking about omicron peak then expecting subsequent fall.

No one is talking about lockdown?

I think there is an issue about a lumpy bumpy plateau at a relatively high number of cases rather than significant fall, if we dump all mitigations and pretend all these cases aren't happening.

Reinfections (England) to be daily counted imminently, if that's what someone was talking about (haven't caught up properly yet) The new lead on the dashboard referred to this on Twitter yesterday.

No one is pretending. It is a significant fall.

Hopefully the tall, sharp peak will continue to fall as sharply and a similar shape to my area and other London areas. Mitigations bring very slow decline and this is a natural peak which looks sharper.

You did just mention avoiding lockdown in pp not sure why

@wintertravel1980

Re: deaths - I think someone here has already referenced the BBC article that highlights the issue of “incidental deaths”:

www.bbc.com/news/health-60000391

This is something that has been laboured by “lockdown skeptics” throughout the pandemic but it has never been true… up until now.

So even if 55 people were to die coincidentally with a covid positive test (from the numbers in that article),

-that is still 210 approx people dying of covid, within 28 days, every day

• and has doubled since before Christmas from about 110 deaths per day (according to the article)

• and that still ignores all the people who die of covid after 28 days

• and possibly also people who had covid and then had complications directly related to that illness, like a stroke, and then died later for associated reasons

266 - or 210 - deaths is still better than we had last year, even with a lockdown, and the vaccines are in large part responsible for that which is great.

Covid infections & deaths are still an appreciable issue though.

Ie the old argument that we need mitigations to avoid lockdown is no longer relevant

Compare the fall here (London, which is earlier in curve) to France to see the difference in post peak v mitigations

@MarshaBradyo

Oh right, I just meant that the plan B restrictions were relatively mild (compared to lockdown) and that it would have been reasonable to continue with them.

Possibly we were even agreeing regarding the lack of need for a lockdown with plan B

I haven't been following what is going on in France very closely.

However, looking at the graphs for the whole of the UK, the curve for patients admitted looks to be plateauing, as do deaths.

The number of positive cases is lower than last week overall, but I guess the question remains, at what point will it level off, with attendant hospital admissions and deaths.

I hope the most at risk are offered second boosters ahead of March. Seems cruel to put so much emphasis on the life saving nature of boosters, then announce they'll likely stop working after 10 weeks before delaring the end of ALL protection measures just as many pass the 10 week mark

I think there has been a decision not to go for second boosters at this stage.

It would be good if the arrangements for antivirals in the community were made clearer, as people are reporting they can't always access them easily, even if immunosuppressed / CEV.

Again, it's great that we have them, of course.

Tom Peacock doesn't seem too concerned about BA.2

mobile.twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1483768659420094464

Also with regards to slowing spread, please bear in mind medically vulnerable 5-11 vaccinations are still not underway. Yet this age group is where cases are increasing.

@herecomesthsun

also, the 7 day figure for deaths is 266 and tending upwards.

That is hundreds of deaths per day and still growing in anyone's reckoning, surely?

No. You have to look at the ONS. For week ending 7th, ONS have a figure of 1023, government dashboard shows 1396.

Yes, ONS figures are going up, but not by as much as government dashboard.

January is also always a top month for deaths. Being completely brutal (and don't forget both my parents died last Jan of Covid), but most deaths are still in the elderly bracket, and in Winter, somethings going to get you in the end whether it be Covid, Flu or Pneumonia.

Just looking at England today - with health being devolved, plan B and related lifting being specific just to England.

Number in hospital dropped below 15,000 to 14865. Compared with 16218 in 18th and 17120 on 10th. Same day last January 33886. Though to retain perspective 1st December just past was just below 6,000.

Cases however have been largely flat since middle / end of last week. The seven day average by spec date in England 78218 up to 15th January 78891 as of 19th January. London though down slightly still 11276 v 10757 for the same measure and dates.

90% of cases reported today in England for spec dates yesterday or day before, rising to near 96% by the third day.

Intriguing little cameo with 1256 cases added to 2nd to 4th November. Might have a look later to see where they were. Yesterday of course almost 2000 of the cases added were spread across December 2021 spec dates.

10 child deaths added to the stats for December today.

@BigWoollyJumpers condolences re your parents' loss, the first anniversary

I just looked at the government website re deaths

"There were 288 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test for coronavirus reported on 21 January 2022, and 1,878 people in the last 7 days. This shows an increase of 9 compared to the previous 7 days."

I would completely agree though that there is room for confusion!

Intriguing little cameo with 1256 cases added to 2nd to 4th November. Might have a look later to see where they were. Yesterday of course almost 2000 of the cases added were spread across December 2021 spec dates

Very intriguing. Does that tie in with the West Country/Woverhampton testing fiasco I wonder. That came to light towards the end of October.

I agree actually January is brutal we have 3 anniversary in January (2 grandparents and MIL) lots of things going around

Our cameo had a fairly widespread addition of cases, although West Mids the least affected.

By region additions

East. 200

East Mids 198

South East 185

South West 168

London 163

Yorks and Humber 127

North West 86

North East 63

West Mids 59

The most impacted council relative to population would appear to be Lincoln, although only talking about 32 cases being added there.

I completely agree that there are particular issues for health management in mid winter.

It's exactly because January is a bugger for respiratory disease that it is a shame we chose just this point to ditch some of the mitigation measures.

Testing lab scandal was early October iirc.