Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Not much data to support it yet, although studies are ongoing, but the health and pharma social media platforms are mumbling and grumbling that our (UK) experience is very much an AZ experience and that Pfizer may well be shown to be less effective in the long term, T cell response and all that.

You would expect that narrative from UK health and pharma, but it is interesting that the noise is definitely increasing.

Do we know which other countries used mostly AZ - was it Spain that continued to use it mid clot controversy??

That’s interesting BigWoolly

Im wondering if a sustained Delta wave over summer and autumn play a part?

Wasn't it France that made the decision on vaccination that if you'd already had Covid then you only needed one dose and not two to be fully vaccinated?

I don’t know re Europe and az but I do know South Africa didn’t at all after finding it didn’t work against beta, there less serve omicron wave must be down to previous infection or pfzar vaccine as they had no az at all

BigWoollyJumpers isn't the thing with "T-Cell" though, is that it's not that effective against infection, so it would swing in well post infection and prevent serious and even non serious symptoms, but you'd still test positive for some time. Perhaps a sufficiently shorter time that it's not picked up on LFT's?

If this is the case, wouldn't we see a higher proportion of infection produced antibodies than implied by the case figures in subsequent antibody sampling?

And also, wouldn't we see more stark age stratification both here and elsewhere between those who could get AZ and those who couldn't?

Have any countries followed Belgium yet on suspending Moderna for younger people too? Also wasn't J&J's more similar to AZ in its response, so where would that fall in the theory?

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway

Wasn't it France that made the decision on vaccination that if you'd already had Covid then you only needed one dose and not two to be fully vaccinated?

I think Italy too. I have a colleague who at one point was fully vaccinated with one dose.

I think Boosters and previous infections are the difference in the UK.

The UK made the right decision to not suppress Delta. I think things would be much worse if we didn't have a summer of high cases.

Also much of EU was vaccinated with Pfizer, and later than UK.

Pfizer did a better job of preventing infections and many would still have had protection when UK was having lots of Delta infections.

@Ohsofedupwiththis

I think Boosters and previous infections are the difference in the UK.

The UK made the right decision to not suppress Delta. I think things would be much worse if we didn't have a summer of high cases.

I think it’s these two as well

We are highest for boosters aren’t we? And delta was a high rate but level

We are highest for boosters aren’t we?

no, Denmark is higher.

Ok not that then re Denmark

Higher previous infection…

What do you think? (You may have already said)

Denmark I would've said it's mostly fewer previous infection and an insanely high detection rate which has prolonged the peaking time (detection isolates more people, reduces spread a little bit) but that theory doesn't really work for france, as I don't think the "Nordic faith in government, civil co-operation etc." works as an example for the French. Unless they are so many non vaccinated that they need the positive tests to go with their covid passes, and I just don't think that tallies either, although I do suspect it has some impact.

So no idea!

.

Just had a look at the Denmark booster rate - they are now (a little) ahead of us, but were well behind a few weeks ago so their infection rates may have kept growing over the last few weeks more than ours as they weren't as well protected by boosters in December. If that's the case you'd expect their case rate to start falling sharply very soon.

But they're also ahead of us on two doses within the previous 3 months, who didn't need boosted, so that would've made up the difference in December wouldn't it?

Looking at today's UKHSA data on outbreaks in educational settings and posivity rates in children, I wonder what data the government looked at when they decided to get rid of masks in secondary schools.

@lonelyplanet

Looking at today's UKHSA data on outbreaks in educational settings and posivity rates in children, I wonder what data the government looked at when they decided to get rid of masks in secondary schools.

I sense irony in that comment lonely. Then again they may have looked but chosen to ignore. Although I must have a truly wild imagination to make such a bizarre suggestion. And some call me a cynic

Perhaps because the outbreaks and positivity show that masks are an ineffective intervention? If they were effective, there wouldn't be outbreaks?

Exactly - effectiveness of masks at school has always been a question mark.

It is likely masks have got marginal benefits (e.g. 10% - based on the Bangladesh RCT for general population), but the impact will not be sufficient to change the direction of pandemic.

At the same time, there are very clear downsides, e.g.:
mobile.twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1483923977223348224

One dose plus Proof of recovery is commonly accepted in Europe as “fully vaccinated “ for covid passes , inter Europe travel etc and their booster roll out is underway but slower off the starting blocks. Austria have some of the strictest measures in Europe currently

Perhaps because the outbreaks and positivity show that masks are an ineffective intervention? If they were effective, there wouldn't be outbreaks?
Well we'll see what happens to the orange section of my first graph above in the next couple of weeks. Maybe it is so much smaller because of vaccinations, but maybe not. It will also be interesting to see the effect on staff absence.

Coming into play will be second doses for 12- 15 year olds. 29% now done in Scotland. First doses only got to 67%.
I wonder whether flu will increase with the dropping of various restrictions.

@lonelyplanet that graph absolutely reflects what is happening where I am. I work in a nursery school, we have previously been barely affected by Covid - but we're currently closed because virtually all of the staff (and many many children) have tested positive. Same story at my dc's primary school (not yet closed, but multiple cases in every class) and very similar situation at most other local nurseries & primaries. But I also have 3 older dc at secondaries, and things have been very quiet there recently compared to before Christmas. It's either a) herd immunity (although I don't think Omicron had really hit here before Christmas, so most of those cases were more likely Delta) b) 12-15 vaccinations c) masks or d) all of the above. But there is definitely a big difference. I guess we'll find out over the next few weeks.

[quote wintertravel1980]Exactly - effectiveness of masks at school has always been a question mark.

It is likely masks have got marginal benefits (e.g. 10% - based on the Bangladesh RCT for general population), but the impact will not be sufficient to change the direction of pandemic.

At the same time, there are very clear downsides, e.g.:
mobile.twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1483923977223348224[/quote]
Well, that young woman started to get really upset when she was talking about what the government did with respect to cancelling exams, and I would completely agree that this was handled really badly.

However, having enough mitigations to keep infections down in schools would have helped keep students in school and helped them to continue getting an education.

Masks can help towards that.

But then, I'm speaking as someone whose immunosuppressed teenager is choosing to continue wearing a FFP2 in school. And is desperately keen to keep going to school and keep wearing a quite protective mask.

However, having enough mitigations to keep infections down in schools would have helped keep students in school and helped them to continue getting an education.

It could have been the case before Delta. Both Delta and Omicron are so transmissible that we are unlikely to keep it out of schools forever.

In the endemic state, I am afraid we have to accept all of us (or nearly all of us) will eventually get Covid. Yes, there will be outbreaks in schools, students and teachers will have to isolate but it will be a short term disruption. Eventually people will recover and get back to school/work.

Of course, the big question is around CEV population but people boosted before Christmas should now be at their peak immunity. At an individual level, people infected in January might have a better health outcome than if they catch Covid 3 months later. Of course, it is not a straight forward decision and there are other considerations (e.g. availability of antivirals, etc) but on balance for many of us getting Omicron now (vs Delta earlier or a different variant later) might reduce the overall risk.