Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

It's exactly because January is a bugger for respiratory disease that it is a shame we chose just this point to ditch some of the mitigation measures.

It's a bloody stupid idea. Honestly, how inconvenient is wearing a bloody mask?! It's just such a tiny, trivial thing to do to protect your fellow commuters, colleagues, shoppers and friends.

The minimum they should have done is keep masks until they announce the next round of boosters for the 50+ (after they've jabbed the kids)

BigWoolly my family (close and extended) must be mutants...they've all died in July I hate summer

Masks drop is beyond ridiculous unless they do want us to surge now?

I doubt marks do that much to control surges otherwise Europe would look different

Masks..

8% in primary aged children. That's 1 in 12.5 infected. That's on average 2 to 3 children in every primary school class in the UK.

@MarshaBradyo

I doubt marks do that much to control surges otherwise Europe would look different

This is opinion. There are many more factors involved than masks alone. Feel free to add some facts.

Your other factors aren’t doing much either given France had half a million cases recently, Germany climbing

Countries are waiting for the peak. If someone wants to put up a chart which isn’t practically vertical growth despite mitigations go for it.

Lockdown, or less has still resulted in sharp increase

I’ve yet to see one that looks like London with sharp fall nearly to bottom

Apologies Marsha, my comment sounded harsher than intended. I'm frustrated at the removal of masks for secondary schools because I can see that they will have the same problem that primaries are currently facing, in a few weeks time. Large numbers off sick causes unbelievable disruption.

8% in primary aged children. That's 1 in 12.5 infected. That's on average 2 to 3 children in every primary school class in the UK.

Does that include re-infections? There are 14 positive cases in my DSs primary year group, 8 (including my DS) had it in Nov/Dec.

Lonely Apology accepted but I can’t believe it was deleted! Rudo isn’t that bad it’s just childhood slang (Aussie we put o on everything). I’ve seen much worse on here but fine I’m glad it doesn’t have to be combative on this thread.

Anyway I’m not sure that will be the case? Omicron is so transmissible if you look at Germany or France even with masks its growth is fast, then it peaks and drops equally fast.

Where is still rising? I just looked at random places Manchester, Bristol, York, Slough all falling.

I also heard that absences are now declining in hospital trusts, particularly London now down to 2% (iirc I’ll check) which is ahead of the curve.

Where is still rising?

In England at least nowhere as far as I can see is back to their peak, but 195 of 315 councils now have a seven day case rate that is increasing - nothing too dramatic though. I'll get to them shortly. Although the age breakdowns for the most recent days are not yet available at Council level I'm going to take a wild guess that it is school age driving growth.

First off around 75% of Councils saw their peak 7 day rate on 4th January. These tables show the others and when their peak was.

These are the pre-Christmas ones.

those that peaked after Christmas but before January 4th

Three Rivers is highlighted as it actually peaked twice (again on 4th Jan) - only a marginal dip in the day between.

and those after January 4th - with the latest January 8th.

The perfect person to answer that question!

hunder ONS numbers would include re-infections yes.

These are by region and show only those councils whose 7 day rate has increased by 10% or more as at 19th Jan spec date compared with 15th Jan.

The first thing to day that there are no graphs for the North East, the North West , Yorkshire and Humber or Inner London , as no councils in those regions meet the criteria and the majority of them are still falling.

Those that are shown largely had relatively lower peaks, in the main below the overall England peak - which is very much in contrast to councils in the regions not shown. So increases should be viewed in that context - no near vertical lines are going to appear!

Each graph has a relatively limited number of councils, with the sequencing being by highest recent percentage growth first, as opposed to absolute increase.

Therefore this is the first graph for the East of England with the biggest increase 36% in South Cambridgeshire, an increase though which still means its latest rate is still only (relatively of course) just past 1100 per 100,000 - as compared with a peak of 1435, and a low on 7th Jan of 747.

Bedford on this graph has the highest rate at 1469 up close to 25% since the 15th but again well below its peak of 1929, which in itself was still below - just - the overall England peak rate.

the delay in getting these posted is due to the distraction of Cheer Were I a decade I'd wonder of Coach Monica and I separated at birth.

From East Texas to the rest of the East of England with increases of 10% or more.

Peterborough on the first graph has the highest current rate in England at just past 1700 per 100,000 - and only a little below its absolute peak of around 1750 - so never got that high relatively, dipped by not a huge amount, down to around 1400 and now rising again.

Again for context the peak council on Jan 4th had a seven day rate of 3723 per 100,000 - Copeland in Cumbria

decade younger obviously

East Midlands on the first graph South Holland - bordering Peterborough has a similar profile - lower peak again, recent growth and current rate not far from its peak rate. Boston on the second graph is similar again - next door to South Holland isn't it. Any yellowbellies around?

Outer London had to lower the criteria to 9% just to make the first two a bit less lonely. Clearly the peaks for these councils were higher and occurred earlier so not shown on a graph starting from 1st Jan.

South East which has a lot of councils with a lot showing a recent increase.

This first graph has the biggest percentage increases - some such as Winchester a bit more pronounced rise.

Next set of three for the South East aside the final graph most peaking below the overall England level.

another three for the South East - increase lines getting shallower again and at relatively low rates still.

South West many again had a relatively low peak, fell back and are increasing from a lower starting point again

Finally the west Midlands the highest peak for any of these eight councils was 1428 around a third lower than the overall England peak.