Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Margaret you were my lucky charm. The order went through!

I saw this map of case numbers and what jumped out at me was that for England the areas with lower cases tended to be the main urban centres and surrounding areas of Newcastle, Manchester/Liverpool, Birmingham and London.
In fact the same areas that 9-12 months ago had much higher case rates than less urban areas. In a perverse way it seems the best way not to catch Covid is to have already caught Covid.

It's always been the case that rates for new variants surge in urban areas first (as they have more international links) then spread out to the rest of the country. This is just the spreading out of the January urban peak combined with the final relaxation of restrictions and waning booster protection. That's not to say cities are "immune" though, the wave could well still slosh back into cities. Hopefully the Easter Break will be a firebreak for schools, though with the end of free testing the only way we'll be alerted to the next wave is when it hits hospitals and morgues.

In a perverse way it seems the best way not to catch Covid is to have already caught Covid.

Both recent studies and observational experience validate it is entirely accurate.

Countries with high levels of infection acquired immunity paid a very high price but they all had very muted BA.1/BA.2 waves. I’m thinking of India, Brazil, South Africa (who hardly noticed BA.2), etc.

All the “zero Covid” (including highly vaccinated) countries struggled.

Covid will end on 2 April as free testing ends on 1 April.

No tests, no cases, no Covid.

Trump logic in action.

Dido Harding T & T only provided two year scheme for the £37 billion

What’s everyone’s thoughts on no testing with the worldwide issues of BA2.2? Presumably, we won’t know how wide spread it will get here or if we get any sub variants until it’s too late. I know things need to relax and get back to ‘normal’ but I can’t help but think it’s short sighted to stop all testing etc and provide the message it’s all over. I can see the logic of no more legal isolation but not to offer testing seems silly when you’re telling people to exercise personal responsibility. How can people do this without testing ? I like the data on here and I just wondered if there’s any concerning data that shows that, actually, the govt should give more thought to this if variants are looking concerning and stats have never been higher.

I haven’t read enough on BA.2.2.. I think we have just passed the peak of the BA.2 wave. The drop in cases should hopefully be obvious by Friday. Hospital admissions and patients in hospitals should also follow. It is basically a repetition of the Netherlands scenario but with a higher burden on older population (perhaps, with boosters deferring infections from Dec-Jan).

I think we need to come up with a better early warning system for new variants/surges. Free LFTs are not a cost effective solution and, of course, they are not sustainable for much longer. A better alternative might be a combination of wastewater monitoring and genomic sequencing of most positive PCR tests in hospital settings. I do not think we are that good at monitoring wastewater though.

Why do we need an early warning system when any early indicators will be ignored until it is too late?

I am so glad this thread is still about, I checked the Worldometer page today and saw no case results for the last 3 days, so looked for this place.

I am lucky enough not to have caught COVID at all since it appeared in 2020, both my DS, my DD have had it and on of my DS fiancés has had it twice. I live with my DD and accidentally used her toothbrush (its the same colour as mine) the day before she tested positive, but still didn't catch it, I also have been at the same theatre with my DS fiancé (went on a joint birthday weekend to London) she caught it and I did not. I am just wondering if there is any data on people that never catch it despite lots of exposure.

My DS had COVID last week, he tested negative yesterday but his work required 2 negatives before he can go back. He popped into a chemist wearing a mask today and a man coughed in his face and called him a sheep! Part of me wished my DS shared the positive LFT he had a photo of on his phone with him as he took of his mask and breathed all over him. He didnt but that man didnt realise my DS was protecting him, or trying to.

Update on health metrics in England; usual format so full pandemic year on year comparisons for England totals - admissions, number in hospital, mechanical ventilators; and deaths within 28 days of a positive test by date of death; and the first two for each NHS region comparing just March and April this year and last year.

starting with admissions - England overall - seven day average close to the early Jan 2022 peak, but a way off the Jan 2021 peak. A lot higher than this time - eg late March - last year.

Current seven day average 2008 as opposed to 271 last year.

number in hospital

Latest daily number (this morning as reported this afternoon) 15411 as compared with 3466 a year ago.

Still below the early Jan peak, and a lot lower than the peak seen in Jan 2021.

mechanical ventilator beds

has risen over the past week, seven day average now just under 300, although same time last year it was still nearer 600, and at the worst of the pandemic over 3600. So a huge difference.

deaths within 28 days by date of death is rising slightly which is not surprising and will probably be back over a 100 seven day average within the next few days. Obviously now higher than this time last year.

moving on to NHS regions in England. These are number in hospital per million showing all regions.

Highest rate still in the North West but the South West not far behind now.

then the same for admissions where the South West is the clear highest - as compared with being lowest at start Jan (and indeed most of the pandemic prior to that).

Now actual numbers - both daily and on a seven day average basis - for each NHS region in England.

Starting with the South West

1662 patients in hospital this morning as compared with 125 last year.

Admissions running at 260 as compared with less than 20 a year ago.

East of England

1739 currently in hospital as compared with 279 a year ago.

seven day average for admissions 218 as compared with 24 - although showing signs perhaps of slowing, although noting that admit numbers are two days behind those for the number in hospital.

London

2324 in hospital vs 733 - so a lower order of magnitude

Midlands

2766 in hospital today vs 709 v this time last year

North East and Yorkshire

2482 vs 608

North West

2239 vs 648

finally South East

2199 vs 364 for number in hospital;

on a seven day average basis currently admissions 334 vs 26