Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

deaths within 28 days of a positive test by date of death and with a week's lag applied

number of patients in hospital - again just England

hospital admissions

for each NHS region - just mid-Feb or start March to end April. Start point dependent on when current year numbers exceeded their 2021 equivalent.

Worst first - South West

South East

East of England

and the rest alphabetically.

London

Midlands

North East and Yorkshire

North West

ONS infection survey - regional and age positivity percentages. All regions and all age groups have increased. South East is the highest at 7.5%. Age 2 to year 6 is back up to 8.3, that's 1 in 12!

England 1 in 16 people.

Wales 1 in 16 people.

Northern Ireland now decreasing 1 in 17 people.

Scotland looks to be slowing but 1 in 11 people!

Re: ONS

In my opinion, the most concerning number is prevalence in 70+. Looks like accelerated boosters deferred the infection from the BA.1 wave but they have not protected the higher risk population completely.

I feel that at this point the most pressing priority should be supply of antivirals. I know we are rolling out 2nd boosters but based on the Israel’s data the 4th dose of an mRNA vaccine might have a diminished impact.

The rate of case growth in England has slowed down so my half-educated guess is that this week might be a peak of the BA.2 wave. I may be wrong - we should know more next week.

I know we are rolling out 2nd boosters but based on the Israel’s data the 4th dose of an mRNA vaccine might have a diminished impact

I'm not convinced there was great data on the efficacy of the first booster against current strains, the change in behaviour due to that wave among groups who would or wouldn't get vaccinated confounds the data. Even the most optimistic data only had a relatively small risk reduction on infection.

What we really need is more data on protection against severe disease.

UKHSA have published a recent report on booster efficacy:

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1507039736426287111

Interestingly, recent boosters still provide a decent protection against Omicron (50-60%). It might not be the level we were hoping for but it is certainly very helpful.

Protection against hospitalisation is better but, unfortunately, it looks like it may also be waning. Of course, a drop from 90% to 85% VE increases hospital admissions by 50%.

BTW, England’s reported cases for today are lower that last Friday.

One day doesn’t set the trend but it makes me hopeful we might be very close to the peak (especially in London and SW).

The latest variant technical briefing is out:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings

There is lots of information on the recombinants. Meaghan Kall has a good thread summarising the information:
twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1507394806108069918

3 new recombinants have been designated

• XD: Delta x BA.1 (mostly in France but also Denmark, Belgium. None in UK.)
• XE: BA.1 x BA.2 (UK only)
• XF: Delta x BA.1 (UK only)

XD looks the most concerning but isn't yet in the UK. XF is the least concerning and isn't thriving. XE has a 10% growth advantage on the BA.2 and is increasing here.

In my opinion, the most concerning number is prevalence in 70+.

I agree with this, very concerning. Also a real worry is the continued disruption to education due to sick children and school staff.

www.scotsman.com/health/covid-scotland-240-scots-die-as-a-result-of-delays-at-ae-departments-3625821

“The number of patients waiting at A&E is at an all-time high … that is assuming you can get to A&E, if you can get your call answered by NHS 24, and if you can get an ambulance to show up"

Scotland is almost certainly on the way down. Cases must’ve peaked last week so, hopefully, the pressure on hospitals will reduce very soon.

Re: schools

I do not see what else can be done at this point. Scotland’s experience (until Feb 28) shows that masks in schools do not make any meaningful difference.

Vaccines for 5-11? The latest results from NYC show that the impact on transmission will be minimal. VE efficacy against symptomatic disease drops to 12% in 28-35 days. VE against hospitalisation is also pretty low (48%).

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.25.22271454v1.full.pdf

JCVI recommended non-urgent vaccinations of 5-11 to reduce the risk of PIMS-TS. This argument still stands but it does not help with reducing Covid transmission/school disruptions.

One of the things that concerns me is that lateral flow tests have been really hard to get hold of this week. I know a number of people this week who have a household member with covid, but they've not been able to get hold of a box to test other members. They haven't got the traditional symptoms so they don't feel justified in getting a pcr.

The other thing I've noticed on the last couple of days is Worldometer is putting the daily count by specimen date and then adding to it as more come in. That means I thought we had a huge reduction, then discovered it wasn't as good as I thought it was, which was a bit of a disappointment.

I think as it stands ONS and possibly Zoe are better ways of looking at the trends than the figures now.

Do you think we'll gets stats on 2nd boosters?

It'll be intetesting to see what the up-take is like given govenment efforts to downplay the extent of the current wave, and there being no sense of urgency about it any more.

Booster roll-out started a few weeks ago in Scotland but none of it features on the dashboard like with previous doses.

@MargaretThursday

"One of the things that concerns me is that lateral flow tests have been really hard to get hold of this week"

An issue for healthcare settings also -

www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/gps-cant-access-covid-tests-as-government-asks-public-not-to-order-them/

Do you think we'll gets stats on 2nd boosters?

Here's some from Israel where they started to administer 4th shots in December:
twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1507777523567915008
Original paper for those who don't do twitter:
www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1478439/v1

I lurk and I'm glad to see this thread ticking over.

Somehow I've still not had covid. Tested again today. Still the only person in the office in a mask and keeping my head down as I want my DD to go away with school at Easter.

Lateral flows seem to be totally out of stock now. Been trying for days.

@megletthesecond

I lurk and I'm glad to see this thread ticking over.

Somehow I've still not had covid. Tested again today. Still the only person in the office in a mask and keeping my head down as I want my DD to go away with school at Easter.

Lateral flows seem to be totally out of stock now. Been trying for days.

@megletthesecond try just after 8pm for lateral flow tests. That time's worked for me the last two times, couldn't get any for about a week/10 days before that.