Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@Words I think many contributors are just a bit data threaded out tbh. Understandable particularly for those active from the very early days. Bit of a slower starter myself still a couple of months off completing my initial two years. But I get where you are coming from.

Thanks for the validation and acknowledgment @boys3.

It just feels there is a danger that because it's not all over the news anymore and restrictions are lifted or minimal, people who don't keep themselves informed feel it's just 'gone away.' Despite the evidence of family and friends going down with it in similar numbers to previous waves. Less social pressure to do the sensible thing when infected too.

I have also never been convinced that the changes to the testing regime has not had its impact on the data, nor quite understood the arguments to the contrary. But I am not a data expert.

Anecdote:

It is roaring away now in my small town. Few masks to be seen. Because it feels more risky currently and my immunity from booster will be waning, I have adapted my behaviour as in previous surges, so shop and gym at quiet times and continue to wear a mask in indoor spaces, and don't attend any crowded indoor events. I seem to be in a weird minority with all this however!

Speculation :

I've noticed that the published rates seem currently lower in deprived areas in my region, higher in more affluent places, and I suspect that is because people aren't bothering to test at all, or don't report the LFT result if they do. Combined with some degree of immunity from previous potentially repeated infection perhaps.

People not bothering to test in the less affluent areas I mean.

My anecdata to add to yours is that I know about ten people who have it at the moment. They are primary school kids - some who have had it before (no vaccinations) or triple vaccinated teens and adults who have not previously had it. So I am going with your 2nd speculation. I think it’s more prevalent in the areas that haven’t seen huge numbers previously.

I am still here. Just too drained to comment!

I'm still following the thread with interest - it's just hard to comment sometimes because I'm genuinely not sure what to think anymore.

I went for lunch with DM today and we sat outside for the first time in a while - felt like a sensible thing to do since it's 1 in 14 here in Scotland and I'd rather not risk us getting heart and brain damage for the sake of a toastie! We were the only people to do that .

Anecdata I realise but I seem to know of an awful lot of ill people who are seemingly testing negative yet displaying classic symptoms at the moment. Quite a few positive cases in friendship circles and acquaintances too.

I’m convinced we’ll be back to restrictions of some type sooner rather than later, especially once it starts hitting the older age groups whom vaccine effectiveness may be dimming since their last boosters.

Lonely what does the title of that table mean by "new reports"?

Dr Dan Goyal's tweeted today:

“Update from the frontline:

Lots of Covid about.

Admissions high. About 20% of all patients.

With antiviral service, taking up about 1/3 of working time.

Cases presenting differently. Lots of gastro issues. Dizziness seems quite frequent. As with previous variants, confusion is a common presentation.”

@JanglyBeads

Lonely what does the title of that table mean by "new reports"?

"From 31 January 2022, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has reported episodes of infection in its coronavirus (COVID-19) surveillance. Previous surveillance of COVID-19 in England was based on positive samples from the same person grouped together, so that the person was only counted once and reported using the date of the first positive result.

The ‘episode’ definition introduced groups positive results up to and including 90 days apart into episodes. Positive test results which are more than 90 days apart will be classed as separate episodes.

The UKHSA methodology for reporting of COVID-19 cases varies between England and the devolved authorities. England and Scotland report 90-day infection episodes. Wales reports 42-day infection episodes. Northern Ireland reports data at individual level (only one infection episode is reported per person) but is working towards reporting 90-day infection episodes."

So I think new cases or reinfections over 90 days.

@JanglyBeads

Dr Dan Goyal's tweeted today: “Update from the frontline:Lots of Covid about. Admissions high. About 20% of all patients.With antiviral service, taking up about 1/3 of working time.Cases presenting differently. Lots of gastro issues. Dizziness seems quite frequent. As with previous variants, confusion is a common presentation.”

I keep reading about the gastro issues as apparently a new symptom but this was suspected from the early days. Anyone remember the analysis from China about unusually high Google searches re gastro symptoms just before Covid was officially recognised?

It was always a symptom wasn't it? But with EVERY new variant I've read it's MORE of a symptom! Not sure really. A lot at our school are off with gastro symptoms but not confirmed Covid (but I don't know if they're testing of course).

Christina Pagel's latest analyses:

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1504988503104446466?s=21

Gastro was my only Delta symptom (until vertigo and loss of smell kicked in).

Warwick modellers assess their 2021 models:

twitter.com/warwicksbider/status/1504919045384114179?s=21

@Words

Thanks for the validation and acknowledgment *@boys3*.

It just feels there is a danger that because it's not all over the news anymore and restrictions are lifted or minimal, people who don't keep themselves informed feel it's just 'gone away.' Despite the evidence of family and friends going down with it in similar numbers to previous waves. Less social pressure to do the sensible thing when infected too.

I have also never been convinced that the changes to the testing regime has not had its impact on the data, nor quite understood the arguments to the contrary. But I am not a data expert.

Anecdote:

It is roaring away now in my small town. Few masks to be seen. Because it feels more risky currently and my immunity from booster will be waning, I have adapted my behaviour as in previous surges, so shop and gym at quiet times and continue to wear a mask in indoor spaces, and don't attend any crowded indoor events. I seem to be in a weird minority with all this however!

Speculation :

I've noticed that the published rates seem currently lower in deprived areas in my region, higher in more affluent places, and I suspect that is because people aren't bothering to test at all, or don't report the LFT result if they do. Combined with some degree of immunity from previous potentially repeated infection perhaps.

scatter graph showing latest seven day rate for reported cases at MSOA level plotted against deprivation, plus same graph for the week to 2nd Jan - close to overall seven day peak rate.

Colin Angus wrote a twitter thread on this change earlier in the week. Particularly noticeable in older age groups. But a trend across all ages.

twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1503481325231161346

Presumably because people in deprived areas are now much more likely to be forced into work while infectious?

Presumably because people in deprived areas are now much more likely to be forced into work while infectious

I'd suppose the numbers still testing (and ie being discovered) is heavily biased across the population.

I'd also suspect that this wave is more correlated with booster take up (since booster would've had a higher chance of preventing in last wave, and now it's waned to nothing in infection, still very high protection against severe outcomes)

Both of those things would result in boys graph changes. Of course not enough data.

jangly isn't the data showing the reverse, much lower prevalence in high deprivation areas, even more so compared to Jan when it was the reverse?

Long time data lurker popping in to say I have my own anecdata: 14 year old DS has pericarditis. Started 6 weeks to the day after second Pfizer. Doctors say this is too late to be a vaccine side effect but given he developed ITP after a flu vaccine a few years ago I am skeptical and don't think he will be boosted. He has had covid (delta, last Summer). Tempted to avoid all antiviral vaccines henceforth tbh....

Anyone have pericarditis stats in teen boys after vacc?

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/5m-people-in-england-to-be-offered-covid-booster-jabs

But it's a bit late for this wave - already 300,000 cases a day (Zoe), already infections in older people and spreading in care homes. How are they going to roll-it out as quickly as needed - use the GPs and close down routine care again? What a mess.

@Words

I can't help with that *@lonelyplanet*, but I wish this thread was more active.

I feel very uneasy. I have escaped it so far and want to continue that way, and the discussion on here was very helpful in helping with rationalising and quantifying the risk.

There was a good piece on PM just now where the same comparison with the Netherlands was drawn.

I lurk every so often. I have avoided covid so far but feel it's somewhat inevitable, and now I'm worrying it'd have been better to have gotten it a month or so ago. I feel I have to ignore how awful it is that everything's been abandoned. The spotlight's off. I'm still taking precautions but there's only so much you can do with family at school etc.

Also a lurker and grateful for this thread. I still check it daily - as I do the gov figures website to try and give me some kind of handle of where we really are. It's getting so much harder to gauge!

I'm in the SW where the numbers are very high at the moment. Can anyone tell me if there is any data re reinfection after Omicron with the new varient? I met up with my PIL at the weekend for a day out - they are elderly and vulnerable, but feeling completely invincible because they had Omicron mildly about 6 weeks ago. I don't know whether they do have reason to be completely unrestricted in what they do and where they go if they should still exercise some caution?

I did see something on Twitter a few days ago but can't remember where @Pebble21uk. Unfortunately I can't even remember what the conclusion was.

Omicron II probably responsible for a five fold increase in hospital acquired infections recently:

twitter.com/adelegroyer/status/1505948071242444800?s=21

Adolescents got pericarditis before covid www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6813188/ and covid can also present as pericarditis casereports.bmj.com/content/15/1/e243768 or can appear as a delayed complication of covid infection www.cureus.com/articles/56224-a-delayed-case-of-pericarditis-following-recovery-from-covid-19-infection

Reinfection after Delta happens, unfortunately.

The preprint suggesting a vaccination risk in teenage boys has been heavily criticised www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2251

latest comparator (2022 v 2021 v 2020) health metrics graphs for England.

Starting with mechanical ventilator beds - current year figure still well down on last year but the gap is beginning to close.