Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Thanks @lonelyplanet - that seems pretty concerning.

@lonelyplanet

So it's official that people can be infected with BA.1 and then catch BA.2 a few weeks later. Let's hope it's rare and asymptomatic - a bit grim otherwise

It looks like it and although it has only been observed in small numbers, it is early days.

More on delacron, containsnuts. France has quite a few cases which are being monitored but nothing worrying at the moment.

twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1502726359096909825

A really interesting thread on the consequences of cutting testing:

twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1503012248352178176

Anecdotally I’ve had 2 friends this weekend test positive - both of which had covid a month or so ago. I’m assuming it’s the new omnicron variant

Current case fatality rate in Hong Kong is 1in 20!

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420660869214213?s=21

graphs showing the recent uptick of numbers in hospital in England

based on the seven day average NHS region figures per million population for hospital numbers. Going back to 1st Jan this year.

Then one just pulling out the South East and South West regions

then, again for numbers in hospital, daily figs and seven day average for each NHS England region comparing the current position with last year - just the mid-Feb to end March period.

Here are East, London and Midlands

North East and Yorkshire , North West and South East

and finally the South West seven day average 970 as compared with 260 at the same point last year

I think this is a new record on Zoe.

albeit with some reduction in testing using the two gender files numbers, most recent week movement and rates per 100,000 by age band in England for the past three weeks up to 12th March.

Growth across all age groups - most marked in the three youngest age band; lowest , although still c.25% in the two oldest groups. Highest rate in the last week in 30-44s

Three Omicron-related recombinants have been assigned Pango lineages, thread from Tom Peacock explaining the significance of them:

twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1504158873938272269

@lonelyplanet . I am not on Twitter so can't read links. Are you able to summarise briefly the testing thread you posted?

I am entirely a lay person but it does seem to me we are looking at an entirely predictable and fairly massive upsurge in cases, fuelled by the wholesale abandonment of restrictions by Johnson.

I'm now redoubling my own precautions. What do the data and public health experts on here think?

[quote Words]@lonelyplanet . I am not on Twitter so can't read links. Are you able to summarise briefly the testing thread you posted?

I am entirely a lay person but it does seem to me we are looking at an entirely predictable and fairly massive upsurge in cases, fuelled by the wholesale abandonment of restrictions by Johnson.

I'm now redoubling my own precautions. What do the data and public health experts on here think? [/quote]
The thread is a balanced discussion on how useful testing has been for epidemiological analysis the cost justification of it going forwards. Jeffrey Barrett thinks that it is being stopped rather abruptly and will be difficult to reboot again quickly. His conclusion is:

"I'm not confident that continuing to spend that money would've been the right choice, even as someone who worked on it for 2 years. But it is beginning to look like the time for a leap into the darkness isn't here just yet."

Thanks lonely.

… but it does seem to me we are looking at an entirely predictable and fairly massive upsurge in cases, fuelled by the wholesale abandonment of restrictions by Johnson…

The highest hospitalisation rates are currently in Scotland (36.3 patients in hospital/100,000 population). England is at 20/100,000.

Here is the latest summary from John Burn-Murdoch:

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1504497732039413765

The JBM thread is quite long and contains a lot of interesting info but in summary and with lots of caveats we should probably expecting to see something similar to this.

Some regions (e.g. SW) might be hit by BA.2 harder than others (e.g. London).

“We should probably be expecting…”

Fair point winter , thanks. The rates in Scotland are eye watering.

The Netherlands example is interesting. Rapid massive spike, then equally rapid decrease. Let's hope so. My local rates are currently looking very alarming. (Yorkshire)

From the ons survey today-

In England, Wales and Scotland the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus has increased, Northern Ireland is uncertain.
England 1 in 20 people
Wales 1 in 25 people
Northern Ireland 1 in 14 people
Scotland 1 in 14 people

It has increased in all regions and all age groups in England.

Does this seem odd to anyone?

Everywhere is reporting that the BA.2 variant is now dominant in the UK but this is from today's variant distribution of cases:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-18-march-2022

@lonelyplanet thanks.

11595 in hospital in England, whilst many not with c19 as their primary reason once identified they still create further pressure for the NHS. Today’s figure almost exactly double that for 18th March last year.

More positivity limited movement in ventilator bed numbers - still significantly lower.

I can't help with that @lonelyplanet, but I wish this thread was more active.

I feel very uneasy. I have escaped it so far and want to continue that way, and the discussion on here was very helpful in helping with rationalising and quantifying the risk.

There was a good piece on PM just now where the same comparison with the Netherlands was drawn.