Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

twitter.com/robertcuffe/status/1500862741078319105?s=21

ONS to stay, but 25% smaller and less f2f questioning.

@InMySpareTime treat Thursday as day 0 (unless any symptoms started earlier?), so you can start testing to release from isolation on day 5, which is tomorrow. If neg tomorrow and Wednesday you can stop isolating straight away if no temperature, as per current guidance.

I never had any symptoms and wouldn't even have known had it not been time for the ONS swabs. I'm assuming the PCR picked up either the tail end of an asymptomatic infection or the remnants of dead virus from an infection I unknowingly contracted and successfully fought (or least likely a false positive).
There is no isolation period, Day 0 or test to release any more. I'm staying pragmatic and taking my two negative lateral flow tests on consecutive days as assurance that I'm not infectious.

REACT have just written to my teen asking them to take part in their study, so they are clearly still continuing their study too.

Many apologies out of date data on London. The Alex Selby graphs used to have daily live updates and I should have noticed that this has stopped. I hope I didn't mislead anyone. Thank you for the accurate updates boys!

@InMySpareTime isolation day 0 and test to release all still "exist", just not as legally binding. It's guidance.

I only got the ONS PCR result on Sunday from a Thursday swab, and got a negative LFT within an hour of receiving the positive notification.
Having unknowingly been out every day from Day 0 to Day 4 it seems nonsensical to start isolating at Day 5, the day after a negative test (with a second negative test added by then)

selected health metrics for England based on yesterday afternoon's update.

Upward drift for the last few days now in terms of admissions and numbers in hospital - both level or above the equivalent point in 2021; albeit with regional differences.

These are England admissions

numbers in hospital

then looking at numbers in a few stand out regions for hospital numbers - albeit all three on a per capita basis largely lower than others still.

This is East of England

South East

South West - both admissions and numbers in hospital

finally quick summary of age movement with the slight upward move in cases - 7 day rate to 5th March (based on dashboard gender files) 19% higher than previous week; but still 13% lower than the week prior to that.

Quite a few adjustments showing into today’s cases in England. Just over 2200 added for spec dates between start last November and end of this January.

15 added to 3rd February.

That would be 15 added to 3rd February 2020. They may well disappear tomorrow.

03/02/20 ?????

@JanglyBeads

03/02/20 ?????

It had been zero for many months occasionally increasing to 1 case, back at zero again at end of Jan, 3 cases appeared on Valentines Day and now 15 more today. Fascinating from an Uber geeky perspective. I ought to look at which councils they are.

But the upturn in hospital numbers - although still way off peak levels, and with ventilator numbers not rising at the moment - probably more of a concern.

I don't know how data can be tracked when positive LFTs aren't being recorded anywhere centrally? Anecdotally I know more people who have tested positive in last few days than since Delta wave last Summer (including my teen on round 2, having had probable Kent variant in April last year and escaping Delta which the rest of the family got in July). This is North West. Is it based on hospitalisations?

But the upturn in hospital numbers - although still way off peak levels, and with ventilator numbers not rising at the moment - probably more of a concern

We really need to know with/of even more now, as we don't have the background count of the general population percentage positive with the less testing. What's most risk I'd say is an increase in hospitalisation rate for covid, due to waning protection against hospitalisation or more dangerous variant etc. Although I do think that ventilation will show that up, unless the damage is of a different type.

Hope everyone's well on the thread - with less data to discuss, and obvious distractions, there's a lot less traffic. There's still nothing that's concerning me in any data, particularly as so many are now ignoring all NPI's.

Study into mild Covid and brain damage.

NB - I found this this quite depressing to read so please avoid if likely to be triggered by covid doom stories.

www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/10/brai-m10.html

The news the last few days seems to be hinting that numbers are going up again, but without proper testing it’s only going to be obvious once it’s too late. Ukraine is the main focus at the moment but Covid stories are still there, you just have to dig for them.

From ons infection survey
"In England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) increased in the week ending 5 March 2022. In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to increase in the week ending 6 March 2022. Our positivity estimates contain Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants and all other variants."

Ireland is particularly interesting because it looked like it had peaked 2 weeks ago, but it has jumped back up again.

Scotland too looks to be very different from the other nations.
twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1502295033134952449

Zoe estimate up at nearly 200,000 again.

Here is a clear summary of the main points from the variant technical briefing 38:
twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1502399816697061377

The full report is here:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings

Thanks for these updates.

Scotland's 7day per 100,000 positive cases is at 1298.8. What is particularly striking is that it seems pretty much the same across the whole of Scotland, apart from Na h-Eileanan Siar and Orkney, which are over 2000.
Maybe this is still the effects of lower previous infection rates.