Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Another consequence of community transmission being so high in Scotland

www.scotsman.com/health/lanarkshire-hospital-bans-non-essential-visits-as-covid-cases-rise-3597920

@Quarantino

Sorry that I'm popping in and out of these threads now but the SW hospital numbers (and the others, to a lesser extent) are surprising to me - is it that it's hitting more now than it was last year (with a more contagious variant)?

I'm in the SW and it feels like everyone I know only started getting it here in recent months. But I guess I'm surprised people are in hospital in such large numbers compared to the tail end of last winter's huge peak.

Maybe this is what we are being expected to live with now, for the indefinite future?

Omicron BA.1 numbers in South West have never reached the same levels as in other regions (e.g. London, NW, NE) so the SW susceptible pool must be higher than elsewhere. I suspect Scotland is in a similar position. As a result, both SW and Scotland might see a higher BA.2 peak (especially as compared to the BA.1 high watermark).

@wintertravel1980

Omicron BA.1 numbers in South West have never reached the same levels as in other regions (e.g. London, NW, NE) so the SW susceptible pool must be higher than elsewhere. I suspect Scotland is in a similar position. As a result, both SW and Scotland might see a higher BA.2 peak (especially as compared to the BA.1 high watermark).

Surprising as Scotland had a massive Delta wave to the extent of being crowned the Covid Capital of Europe at one point.

www.nationalworld.com/health/coronavirus/scotland-is-now-the-worst-affected-covid-region-in-europe-according-to-who-data-3368678

It seems high levels of infection from Delta have been credited with protecting South Africa from the Omicron wave but not Scotland?

Omicron BA.1 numbers in South West have never reached the same levels as in other regions (e.g. London, NW, NE) so the SW susceptible pool must be higher than elsewhere. I suspect Scotland is in a similar position. As a result, both SW and Scotland might see a higher BA.2 peak (especially as compared to the BA.1 high watermark).

Scotland numbers slightly lower than England but not a huge difference.

Looking at which variants were around, both England and Scotland had a similar BA.1 wave that followed from Delta. The difference is that for some reason BA.2 has hit Scotland sightly earlier and faster but also that the BA.1 is rising again. This is unusual because new variants have previously pushed the older ones out. Maybe the two different variants are prominant in different areas of Scotland but I don't know where to find a breakdown by Scottish regions.

Omicron BA.1 numbers in South West have never reached the same levels as in other regions (e.g. London, NW, NE) so the SW susceptible pool must be higher than elsewhere.

London is showing the biggest upturn in growth rates currently.
sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/extdata/vocgrowth/fit.omicron/fit_combinedgrowths.png

@lonelyplanet

"Maybe the two different variants are prominant in different areas of Scotland but I don't know where to find a breakdown by Scottish regions"

I don't think that data is available yet. I was watching the latest Indie Sage broadcast and Prof Pagel said it was assumed BA.2 was dominant in Scotland but couldn't confirm due to lack of data.

@wintertravel1980

Cases in England have gone up this week based on the dashboard data. Looks like the recent increase in hospitalisations might be a combination of the (i) general increase in prevalence and (ii) waning boosters.

Post half term and back to school?

I just got a +VE from an ONS PCR from Thursday but am testing -VE on LFT. No symptoms but I know false + are very rare. Don't know whether to avoid people now or if so, for how long?

Post half term and back to school?
Maybe this has caused case rises but not hospitalisations yet.

Looking at the case increase in England over the past few days - remembering of course the last dashboard update was Friday afternoon, so really just cases up to Wednesday just gone we know much about.

As the previous chart showed 28th Feb - 2nd Mar all just past the 30,000 per day mark - again bearing in mind testing levels need to be considered - so cases in England some 8,000 higher than the three equivalent days a week earlier, or around 9.5% higher.

and with some variation across regions - NW up nearly 17%, whereas London less than 3%. This of course based on actual data.

The table shows the percentage change by age band and for each region plus England overall.

and this shows the absolute case number increase

for those like me who prefer a graph to a table, this is the percentage change by age band for England - with graphs for each region to follow. All a bit of a mixed bag.

North West

South West

North East

South East

Yorks and Humber

West Mids

East of England

East Midlands

and finally London