Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

If that's from random sampling then you're right. Positivity is normally derived from dividing the total number of infections by the total number of tests rather than random statistical sampling.

If it really was the case that 20% of school children in NI tested positive last week, that is a phenomenally high percentage and eclipses the highest point in the most effected areas at the height of Omicron. Also, at that rate, a considerable degree of herd immunity would be kicking in very shortly.

It is from random sampling, see this report:
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18february2022

As for herd immunity, given that BA.2 is growing quickly here, you might like to read the findings on reinfections from Denmark, seemingly occurring more frequently in the unvaccinated (yes children again):

twitter.com/kakape/status/1496082108867125255

inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-dashboard-no-longer-update-weekends-uk-government-plans-live-with-virus-1475483

JanglyBeads

Makes sense since not all the nations report over the weekend it's just partial information anyway.

I'm sure they'll scrap it altogether soon - it's totally unreliable and we'll have the ONS for a bit longer which is good.

@JanglyBeads

I saw an article earlier sorry can't remember where), saying LFTs would be £3-5 each or £20 for a box of 7. These prices have to be considered in the context of the massive rises in energy and food costs happening currently.

BBC News - Boots to sell £6 Covid tests ahead of rule change www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60486323

Yes I did think not having the weekend figures wasn't going to be a huge loss.

Yes I did think not having the weekend figures wasn't going to be a huge loss

Monday's "100,000 cases reported today" headlines will get misused again though...

It's encouraging to see on the dashboard that London has fewer than 100 people on ventilators 'for Covid' now. I haven't kept track, but it's been a while since that's been the case.

Healthcare metrics in England update.

Starting with patients in ventilator beds. Almost 7 times lower than at the same point last year, with the seven day average dropping below 300 for the first time since early July last year.

Around 1/3 of the total is accounted for by London - home to around 15% of England's population and with a younger demographic.

patients in hospital

admissions , close to exceeding levels at the same point in 2021 - although needs to be seen in the wider context of number in hospital, patients on ventilator beds, and deaths.

deaths within 28 days by date of death

Yesterday's press conf slides also worth a look www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

regional NHS admissions and number in hospital; starting with East of England. As usual these just cover the period since start of January.

London

Midlands

North East and Yorkshire

North West

South East

South West; likely to be the first region with numbers in hospital this year exceeding those at the same point last year - probably within the next week.

SW number in hospital graph with a limited x-axis scale, so starting mid Feb

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparingtheriskofdeathinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19byvariantengland/december2021

ONS study comparing risk of death from Delta and Omicron after adjusting for other factors such as age and vax status. It concludes that on average, risk of death is 67% lower for Omicron.

This may explain Scotland's rising cases and hospitalisations. BA.2 rising there faster than BA.1 is going down.

@lonelyplanet

This may explain Scotland's rising cases and hospitalisations. BA.2 rising there faster than BA.1 is going down.

It's spreading in the upper age groups which probably explains the hospital situation in Scotland.

lonely do we think though that it's really just higher detection of cases in Scotland due to the difference in policies etc. ?

@sirfredfredgeorge

lonely do we think though that it's really just higher detection of cases in Scotland due to the difference in policies etc. ?

It is from ons infection survey, so no.

It's spreading in the upper age groups which probably explains the hospital situation in Scotland.

I guess boosters might be starting to wane. Did Scotland boost at the same time as England?