Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

With the ONS reporting that nearly twice as many people died of flu or pneumonia than Covid last month despite over 1 million Covid tests being performed per day, maybe the logistics of testing for Covid, but nothing else, should be reconsidered.

Have any other countries provided free-on-demand Covid tests for the asymptomatic? Have those that haven't had worse Covid outcomes than the UK?

No one seems to be suggesting that tests should be either stopped for the obviously sick, nor that they should be banned for those that want them. But at £2bn a month perhaps we should expect a much greater reduction in transmission from the freely available testing we have at present, specially if we look at transmission rates over the last 3 months.

With the ONS reporting that nearly twice as many people died of flu or pneumonia than Covid last month

Do you have a link for this please? I could only find UKSHE hospital and ICU admissions data and that shows covid much higher than flu.

@lonelyplanet

With the ONS reporting that nearly twice as many people died of flu or pneumonia than Covid last month

Do you have a link for this please? I could only find UKSHE hospital and ICU admissions data and that shows covid much higher than flu.

ONS. Sheet 3. Weekly provisional figures on death registrations in England and Wales for selected causes of death, registered 2022.

Deaths involving Covid: 6415, deaths involving influenza and pneumonia: 11067.

BTW, 'died with' or 'died of' or 'due to' or 'involving', all show different things, but the if the last 2 years on MN has taught me anything it is that, here at least, any death involving Covid is a Covid death, so I daren't pick any other category.

Remember that is almost certainly mostly pneumonia deaths, not influenza ones, bacterial infections, sometimes secondary infections from a respiratory virus - although pre-omicron rare that it was a secondary to covid, but I imagine that could've changed with symptom change.

The influenza survey is still showing very low rates of influenza, but there's no specific data on the causes of the pneumonia deaths to know exactly what the causes are.

[quote containsnuts]More booster for CEV and over 75s.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fourth-jab-within-weeks-for-over-75s-as-coronavirus-restrictions-dropped-r2jmjv7qt

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-booster-vaccine-vulnerable-uk-latest-b2018190.html[/quote]
That just the Spring "top-up jab". There's another planned for Autumn.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60465983

Listening to what’s going on Feb 24th

Won’t list as too hard but it seems to be most

ONS staying

ONS staying but on scaled down version.

England v. NI - any ideas why the difference?

twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1495759763380084737

[quote lonelyplanet]England v. NI - any ideas why the difference?

twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1495759763380084737[/quote]
Two possibilities:

1. Young people in NI have herd immunity. Older people were more protected in some previous waves, so there are more of them still to reach the incredibly high "herd" levels. Theory being even the most protected are exposed eventually through hospital, care home, home support workers etc .
2. Earlier vaccination. Trouble is that the dates suggest it was their first and second dose that was earlier than England, not third. So perhaps it's a factor of those who declined the third dose and have immunity waning further.

Sorry, last was me in my AIBU username (only just retiring it post Xmas!).

Santa - I'm not sure there is any evidence of herd immunity in any community particularly unvaccinated children. The graph shows a positivity rate in NI of 20% in young children that's 1 in 5. Some older age groups look to be increasing. It maybe that they're a bit behind us in coming down but looking at the cases graph they seem to have peaked at a similar time to us.

The variant make ups for the last 30 days are different though, left NI, right England.

Here is the new living with covid guidance for anyone interested:

t.co/q3ozT4mpNW

Attached are the key changes.

@lonelyplanet

Here is the new living with covid guidance for anyone interested:

t.co/q3ozT4mpNW

Attached are the key changes.

Why is LEGAL in bold?

If there's no testing and no contact tracing, how will anyone know they have covid in order to "minimise contact with other people"?

@lonelyplanet

Santa - I'm not sure there is any evidence of herd immunity in any community particularly unvaccinated children. The graph shows a positivity rate in NI of 20% in young children that's 1 in 5. Some older age groups look to be increasing. It maybe that they're a bit behind us in coming down but looking at the cases graph they seem to have peaked at a similar time to us.

A highball positivity rate simply means that Covid is prevalent compared to other infections that would warrant a test, and there's not much by way of precautionary testing. I wouldn't expect positivity to relate much with the level of population susceptibility.

@Halloweenrainbow - non-legally binding restrictions can still exist. Employers can ask someone to "isolate" by not going into work. Same as companies, transport, healthcare providers and others can continue to require masks.

There's still free testing for all for the next five weeks, some other settings will have free testing after that, and some people will be prepared to pay for private testing after that. So legally non-binding recommendations for what you should do if you test positive are still of interest.

I'm sure I read somewhere that a box of 7 LFTs costs the NHS about £8. So assume they'll be available in pharmacies for around £10-£15 a box. Affordable to most people if they just want to test to be sure whether it's a cold or covid, or check if still infectious after 5-7 days, or to test before visiting a vulnerable person. My main concern would be around those at high-ish risk of serious illness but who don't qualify for free tests, or don't realise they qualify, and can't afford to pay for tests. I worry we'll see more poorer people out the habit of ever testing and only diagnosed when they get really ill and go to hospital, too late my then to benefit from the new drugs.

A highball positivity rate simply means that Covid is prevalent compared to other infections that would warrant a test, and there's not much by way of precautionary testing. I wouldn't expect positivity to relate much with the level of population susceptibility

A high positivity rate from random sampling means prevalence is high, nothing to do with other infections. From ons (random sampling) approximately 20% of young children in NI last week tested positive for covid.

So assume they'll be available in pharmacies for around £10-£15 a box. Affordable to most people if they just want to test to be sure whether it's a cold or covid, or check if still infectious after 5-7 days, or to test before visiting a vulnerable person

I'm not sure many people would pay that kind of money to test (unless they had a seriously vulnerable relative).

I saw an article earlier sorry can't remember where), saying LFTs would be £3-5 each or £20 for a box of 7. These prices have to be considered in the context of the massive rises in energy and food costs happening currently.

@lonelyplanet

A highball positivity rate simply means that Covid is prevalent compared to other infections that would warrant a test, and there's not much by way of precautionary testing. I wouldn't expect positivity to relate much with the level of population susceptibility

A high positivity rate from random sampling means prevalence is high, nothing to do with other infections. From ons (random sampling) approximately 20% of young children in NI last week tested positive for covid.

A high positivity rate from random sampling means prevalence is high, nothing to do with other infections. From ons (random sampling) approximately 20% of young children in NI last week tested positive for covid.

If that's from random sampling then you're right. Positivity is normally derived from dividing the total number of infections by the total number of tests rather than random statistical sampling.

If it really was the case that 20% of school children in NI tested positive last week, that is a phenomenally high percentage and eclipses the highest point in the most effected areas at the height of Omicron. Also, at that rate, a considerable degree of herd immunity would be kicking in very shortly.

Should have put a "However" before "positivity" in my last post for it to make sense; sorry.