Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@lonelyplanet

It's spreading in the upper age groups which probably explains the hospital situation in Scotland.

I guess boosters might be starting to wane. Did Scotland boost at the same time as England?

Yes, I think so. Most over 75s I know were boosted September/October time.

Fortnightly variant technical briefing was out yesterday. Mainly centred on the BA.2.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings

"Growth rate
BA.2 has demonstrated an increased growth rate compared to BA.1 in all regions of England. The growth rate estimated with data up to 21 February 2022 is 0.83 per week, compared to 1.03 using data up until 7 February 2022. Growth rates can be overestimates early in the emergence of a variant, and the growth advantage remains substantial.

Hospitalisation
Preliminary analysis finds no evidence of a greater risk of hospitalisation following infection with BA.2 compared to BA.1. These are early estimates which may change as data accrue.

Vaccine effectiveness
A test negative case control analysis continues to indicate no evidence of reduced vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with BA.2 compared to BA.1. Two weeks after a booster dose vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the BA.2 variant was 67%."

@lonelyplanet
Not much in the report on 'Deltacron' other than that it definitely exists and has the ability to spread. Presumably if it was a real problem we would know by now? It's been around a while.

[quote containsnuts]@lonelyplanet
Not much in the report on 'Deltacron' other than that it definitely exists and has the ability to spread. Presumably if it was a real problem we would know by now? It's been around a while.[/quote]
It is still listed as a variant under monitoring, but I can't find any numbers. I guess this means it is not a worry at the moment.

I read that 5 million doses of vaccine have been wasted (Astra zenca I think). It's a shame if there is any chance these could have been used to protect vulnerable people whose booster is waning (I don't know if that would have been possible) - or of course sent overseas.

Anyone know why there was no data for yesterday?

On dashboard

Thank you. I guess this is the start of them stopping giving us the figures.

According to the ONS infection survey on Friday, over 2 and a half million people in the UK were testing positive for covid and between 3.5 and 5% of children are positive. Presumably the government is happy with this state of affairs then, and expect quite a high level of infection to persist through the spring and summer, with a nothing-to-see here attitude?

Most children I know who were positive could be in school fine though so there will be little to see in that respect. Without them having to isolate for a week + school will seem far more normal!

@herecomesthsun

According to the ONS infection survey on Friday, over 2 and a half million people in the UK were testing positive for covid and between 3.5 and 5% of children are positive. Presumably the government is happy with this state of affairs then, and expect quite a high level of infection to persist through the spring and summer, with a nothing-to-see here attitude?

Here's the CDC plans for comparison -

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/cdc-to-relax-guidance-masking-hospital-capacity

"The CDC is also offering a color-coded map with counties designated orange, yellow or green to help guide local officials and residents. In green counties, local officials can drop any indoor masking rules. Yellow means people at high risk for severe disease should be cautious. Orange designates places where the CDC suggests masking should be universal.

How a county comes to be designated green, yellow or orange will depend on its rate of new hospital admissions, the share of staffed hospital beds occupied by Covid patients and the rate of new cases in the community"

The government always were interested in hospital capacity this level of infection means yes they are happy with it and there isn’t an obvious reason not to be. My kids only knew they had covid due to testing, so going forward would have been infected but continued in normal life. if hospitalisations rise we could look again but it’s not the just the government it’s hard to get the population behind continuing restrictions without an obvious threat to healthcare and at the moment I don’t think most people are convinced that is the case (we have about a quarter of the people in hospital we had in January 2020)

Without data, it wouldn't be clear what the risks are, so hard to tell whether we ought to be taking more measures or not.

Remember, there are millions of people who were shielding for months at a time and are now trying to manage their risks without much support.

we have about a quarter of the people in hospital we had in January 2020

Just to put the record straight - there was no one in hospital in Jan 2020. The first peak was April 2020 when there were about 22,000 in hospital. If you were referring to the Jan 2021 peak then there were just under 40,000 in hospital compared to approx 20,000 in Jan 2022. If you want to compare our situation now to last year, scroll down and look at boys graphs on this thread. They are very clear and break the situation down into areas.

Sorry January 2021 it was a typo but the point stands it’s a lot less now

Currently adding to the stats by being Covid positive ( for the second time in 3 months).
I work with children and think it is most likely I caught if off one of them!

Adding to the stats here too. DS2 testing positive for the first time, and me testing positive again despite 3 vax (booster in October) and COVID at the end of October.

I’ve just tested positive for (what I think) is the first time since this all began, 16 days after my daughter (7) tested positive, followed by my husband 7 days ago. I know more people now with it or who have had it in the last few weeks - than I have throughout the last 2 years - some having caught it for a second time within the last 4 months

Just to add that myself & husband are fully vaccinated having had our boosters in early December 21

Fully vaccinated here too!

It's to be expected that you might test positive despite being vaccinated.

Vaccines or having Covid don't set up a force field around you to stop Covid getting into your nose/throat.

The idea of having immunity is that your system is primed to despatch the antigen ASAP. So if you inhale Covid you can expect to test positive while your immune system is doing your stuff and there's some of the antigen in your nose/throat.

The idea of having immunity (from infection or vaccination, or both) is that, depending on how zippy your immune system is, you hopefully won't feel unwell with Covid and won't 'have' it (feel unwell to some degree or simply test positive) for long.

Are we not getting any daily stats at all now? The ones just published (which I expected to include weekend figures) just show a total for the past 7 days.

I was just coming to ask the same!

@SecretKeeper1

Are we not getting any daily stats at all now? The ones just published (which I expected to include weekend figures) just show a total for the past 7 days.

It's in the detail, at least for the cases data.

Worldometers hasn’t been updated either, it’s usually done soon after the gov stats at 4pm each day.