Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

No, I do not remotely believe that most people are aware of the risks of isolation. If they were, they would have taken steps to mitigate them during lockdowns etc.

Yet, all the evidence is that the population failed to mitigate lots of those risks - the childhood obesity figures, the weight surveys, the fitness surveys etc.

@sirfredfredgeorge

No, I do not remotely believe that most people are aware of the risks of isolation. If they were, they would have taken steps to mitigate them during lockdowns etc.

Yet, all the evidence is that the population failed to mitigate lots of those risks - the childhood obesity figures, the weight surveys, the fitness surveys etc.

But a few people deciding not to go to the cinema one weekend because of a local outbreak is unlilely to result in catastrophic levels of childhood obesity.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/16/scotland-to-offer-covid-jab-to-all-children-aged-five-to-11-says-sturgeon

People may have modified their behaviour over Christmas - office parties etc were certainly cancelled a lot. But are they still doing so? And if they're not doing so now, was it (with hindsight) actually necessary for them to have modified their behaviour previously? It might have flattened the peak a bit I guess, which will have taken the pressure off the NHS a bit, through both patient numbers and staff shortages. But we do seem, finally, now to have reached the stage we always needed to get to where behaviour is pretty much normal, and hospital numbers manageable.

Some people have such short memories! It's just weeks from when you couldnt get into a hospital for hours and sat in an ambulance, no beds available for you. Frankly it's not a lot better now, it's just not news any more. So yes, with hindsight it was necessary and everyone who is still being careful is still helping others get treatment when they need it.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/02/20220210-AQI-Stats-Note.pdf

BBC News - England to offer Covid jab to five to 11-year-olds
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60406155

@alreadytaken

Some people have such short memories! It's just weeks from when you couldnt get into a hospital for hours and sat in an ambulance, no beds available for you. Frankly it's not a lot better now, it's just not news any more. So yes, with hindsight it was necessary and everyone who is still being careful is still helping others get treatment when they need it.

I don't think that's primarily due to covid. The numbers of people in hospital with covid are far lower than previously, especially in ICU. Hospitals are under a lot of strain for to underfunding and having a backlog of care to catch up on. But we can't dictate how people live their lives up fit the level of NHS care the government has managed to fund. The government must fund the level of care that's needed.

I found this really interesting:

thetyee.ca/News/2022/02/14/Pandemic-Ghost-Russian-Flu/

Breakdown of key points on Friday's variant report:

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1494100137882308615

[quote milkyaqua]I found this really interesting:

thetyee.ca/News/2022/02/14/Pandemic-Ghost-Russian-Flu/[/quote]
Thank you, very interesting!

US study into MRNA vaccine effectiveness against Delt and Omicron.

www.news-medical.net/news/20220212/CDC-study-first-to-show-waning-immunity-after-third-dose-of-mRNA-COVID-19-vaccine.aspx

Uniquely, it distinguished between people with severe disease requiring hospital admission, and people presumably unwell enough to seek medical attention at the ER or Urgent Care but not needing admitted to hospital.

"During the Omicron-predominant period (late fall 2021/winter 2021-22), vaccine effectiveness against ED/UC visits was 87 percent during the first two months after a third dose, decreasing to 66 percent at four months after a third dose".

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/17/cabinet-splits-emerge-over-living-with-covid-strategy-and-free-testing

Many (most of current?) UKHSA staff May lost jobs in 6 weeks' time, of general PCR testing, and contact tracing end:

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/17/cabinet-splits-emerge-over-living-with-covid-strategy-and-free-testing

Hope you've all done the Dashboard survey (still open)!

[quote milkyaqua]I found this really interesting:

thetyee.ca/News/2022/02/14/Pandemic-Ghost-Russian-Flu/[/quote]
I've been interested in this for a while. The Leuven group's theory doesn't seem to be supported elsewhere, nor has it been rejected AFAIK.

I was interested, early on in Covid pandemic, to hear a doctor on Radio 4 saying that there had been a lot of OC43 about in the winter of 2019-20. I myself went down with a nasty fluey thing (I didn't notice smell or tested affected) in December 2019, and rather hoped I'd had OC43 and had some cross immunity to Covid. I doubt I shall ever know, but, AFAIK, I haven't had Covid.

Interesting stats on child deaths due to covid and also the (quite big) reduction in child deaths from other causes caused by lockdown twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1494213621013962752?t=FOIUE0ygEDtD2dyWHkMZYw&s=19

Data on Denmark
twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1494319879394148354

What's happening to case rates in Scotland currently? Seem to be growing fast in dashboard data

@Firefliess

What's happening to case rates in Scotland currently? Seem to be growing fast in dashboard data

Increasing on Zoe too.

Seems to be in older age groups with hospitalisations creeping up a bit (vaccines waning?)

ICU still falling though.

Here's a better screenshot of the graph

Possible explanation as to why 5-11 vaxx aren't starting until April - low supplies of paed doses?

twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1494381186621353985?s=21

www.heraldscotland.com/news/19932323.public-health-scotland-pulls-covid-case-rate-data-claims-demonstrates-conclusively-vaccines-not-working/

Nervtag latest published report - NERVTAG: Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-10-february-2022

@containsnuts

www.heraldscotland.com/news/19932323.public-health-scotland-pulls-covid-case-rate-data-claims-demonstrates-conclusively-vaccines-not-working/

Terrible headline but otherwise really thorough reporting from the Herald. NHS England need to do the same: frankly they needed to do it several months ago.

Covid has happened at the absolute worst time in the census cycle when we have only the vaguest idea how many people live anywhere.

[quote Firefliess]Interesting stats on child deaths due to covid and also the (quite big) reduction in child deaths from other causes caused by lockdown twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1494213621013962752?t=FOIUE0ygEDtD2dyWHkMZYw&s=19[/quote]
Yes the significant decrease in child deaths (especially the under ones) has been visible in the raw numbers for a year now. I wondered why it was and had loads of hypotheses but it seems (from the More Or less report, I haven't yet read the original actuaries' report) that it's largely down to a reduction in respiratory diseases which makes perfect sense.

The near-disappearance of seasonal flu over the last two years is well known so of course that would result in fewer deaths in the one group for whom Covid actually is less dangerous than the flu.

It would be nice if we could learn something about how to keep flu levels low without taking drastic pandemic level action: hand washing might help a bit.

It would be nice if we could learn something about how to keep flu levels low without taking drastic pandemic level action: hand washing might help a bit.

I had a look the other day at the national flu surveillance reports, and flu rates are extremely low... higher than the virtually non-existent flu levels of last year, but far, far lower than in 2019 and prior years. The predictions of a duel influenza-Covid fuelled crisis hasn't come to pass.

Given that restrictions in schools and other places have been lax through the autumn I'm surprised...

I wonder whether most of the flu cases are picked up when they become serious.... and that tends to be those in care homes and the vulnerable in the community, both of which have been far more diligent at reducing infection than they were pre-2020.