Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Sir David Spiegelhalter was good this morning on death rates being of lower use and should really be halved to be meaningful. And questioned on whether it should still be reported as makes it seem worse

But also on surveillance - it makes sense to have something in place, not necessarily community testing. How do we do flu surveillance?

Will Google..

Morning, oracle of Covid information!

I’ve caught it from my kids after trying to be careful not to. But now they’re both testing negative, can I pass it back to them or can we just go about business as usual (at home)?

The flu vaccination drive was hugely boosted this year.

I think on the death stats we're at an interesting stage where people who are wedded to one approach are saying "Look! The daily deaths are still really high!" and people who are wedded to another approach are saying "we have no proof that any of these people ever died "of" covid, they were probably all run over by buses" and people who are wedded to the data are walking the tightrope of saying "The 28-day figures originally greatly understated covid deaths and then they became a very reliable benchmark that was pretty close to the true figures and now they're much too high" and are getting shouted at by both sides for "minimising" or "moving the goalposts".

@SecretKeeper1

Morning, oracle of Covid information!

I’ve caught it from my kids after trying to be careful not to. But now they’re both testing negative, can I pass it back to them or can we just go about business as usual (at home)?

No, you can't pass it back to them. After a few months their antibodies may start to wane a bit so it's possible then for them to pick it up again (though still very unlikely), or if a new strain appears they could catch that. But they won't catch the strain they just gave to you straight back. Their immune systems have this one sussed currently - that's how they've managed to get better and test negative. Hope you get better soon too

More booster for CEV and over 75s.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fourth-jab-within-weeks-for-over-75s-as-coronavirus-restrictions-dropped-r2jmjv7qt

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-booster-vaccine-vulnerable-uk-latest-b2018190.html

Wonder whether that means those CEV and their households who've had four jabs will get a fifth?

Also just googling recalled the stats in early Dec about thousands of housebound people who hadn't had their boosters thus far. I wonder if they've all had them by now?

Also saw yesterday that there are areas where only 70% of adults have had boosters.

There are going to be a lot of vulnerable folk left when isolation ends.

JanglyBeads

"Wonder whether that means those CEV and their households who've had four jabs will get a fifth?"

Yes, it'll be the 5th jab for some people

Thank you so much @Firefliess I really appreciate it. Hugs all round it is!!

[quote containsnuts]More booster for CEV and over 75s.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fourth-jab-within-weeks-for-over-75s-as-coronavirus-restrictions-dropped-r2jmjv7qt

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-booster-vaccine-vulnerable-uk-latest-b2018190.html[/quote]
I'm going to be volunteering in a windswept carpark or marquee for the rest of my life at this rate! :)) (Not complaining, I do enjoy it.)

Yes, it'll be the 5th jab for some people

Possibility for even more if you were in a trial and live with vulnerable.

I’m so glad to see the stats thread still running even though things appear to be getting quieter in the covid board.

Apparently tomorrow press conference will be the last ever Covid one:

twitter.com/johnjcrace/status/1495536046372708352?s=21

Hello all!

Quick question, as the news is talking about removing "final" restrictions; what happens to all the other non-mandated restrictions in place? I don't mean individual businesses putting out anti-bac and requesting masks, but public services. Only one visitor for 1 hour in hospital, only one parent allowed to accompany a child to a doctor appointment, bags to be put in boxes at the dentist (not sure I ever understood why everyone touching a plastic box was "safer" than leaving handbag on the chair), requests to test for school, fewer people allowed at children's centre sessions etc.

@MRex

Hello all!

Quick question, as the news is talking about removing "final" restrictions; what happens to all the other non-mandated restrictions in place? I don't mean individual businesses putting out anti-bac and requesting masks, but public services. Only one visitor for 1 hour in hospital, only one parent allowed to accompany a child to a doctor appointment, bags to be put in boxes at the dentist (not sure I ever understood why everyone touching a plastic box was "safer" than leaving handbag on the chair), requests to test for school, fewer people allowed at children's centre sessions etc.

I believe individual settings will be able to still put restrictions in place if they deem necessary. However, nothing will be legally enforceable.

I do suspect medical settings will continue their current COVID policies, especially hospitals and most likely care settings.

Community centres, assuming they are council run, could possibly maintain some restrictions however will probably relax/ not enforce as much/ for as long as medical settings.

It’s going to be a bit of a minefield really, and variation in different areas will become even more widespread.

Testing is due to be ‘scaled back’, not really sure what that means.

I believe the Government have already stopped providing tests to universities.

@SpringRainbow The Telegraph (who have always been spot on with leaks) reports:

The Telegraph understands those aged 80 and above are likely to continue to be offered free tests, along with staff and patients in hospitals and other high-risk settings such as care homess_.

Details of the plans were still being finalised on Sunday after wrangling between Rishi Sunak's Treasury, seeking to rein in the £2 billion a month cost of testingg_, and Sajid Javid's Department of Health and Social Care, which has been arguing that more protections for the vulnerable need to be maintained.
It was unclear on Sunday night whether the extension of free tests would apply to the 1.3 million vulnerable people who are eligible for antiviral drugs if they contract Covid.

It says further up the article that access to LFT and PCR will be scrapped.

Im supportive of some changes to testing but I'd like to know how they will monitor the virus without testing.

Yes I can't see how they can rely on the antivirals that need to be taken quickly if you catch covid if they don't test at least the people who are eligible for them. They could move to (much cheaper) LFTs for most people though, I guess.

@LemonCake79

It says further up the article that access to LFT and PCR will be scrapped.

Im supportive of some changes to testing but I'd like to know how they will monitor the virus without testing.

I think they're saying the will go on testing in hospitals, so I guess that works reasonably well for monitoring any big changes. We monitor flu rates that way. You could sequence those cases too.

Interesting question @MRex, there are so many 'because of Covid' rules still in place that make no sense whatsoever but don't inconvenience the organisation that put them in place e.g. I can't use the viewing gallery to watch children swim despite the fact parents and children are all in the changing rooms together.

I can't see that changing quickly because there is no incentive for the pool to change their rules. So many of these rules are difficult, inconvenient and (in some cases such as hospitals) heartless but don't compromise service delivery so there is no pressure to rapidly reverse them.

I feel for public facing staff in these environments as they will get the brunt of people's displeasure. I went for an eye test recently and they rang the day before to confirm it is their policy to require everyone to wear masks. The lady was relieved when I said 'ok' and didn't 'kick off'.

That's true @Firefliess, you're right.

Thanks @LemonCake79 that is very scaled back

So, we really will be back to ‘normal’ then.

I appreciate the desire to cut back on the colossal scale and cost of testing, but is it shortsighted to completely remove it to save money in the short term? I would have thought a person taking an LFT test before meeting a vulnerable relative to prevent infection was cheaper in the long run than that vulnerable relative developing symptoms, requiring a PCR, medical consultation, antivirals, admission to hospital etc etc. What happened to prevention being better than a cure?

containsnuts Then it's a simple number needed to treat calculation, and I don't think it's likely obvious that it would be cheaper, not least because we've had testing and it's failed to prevent millions of cases, including hundreds of thousands in vulnerable people. It's failed even to protect the queen, let alone people who need to go out.

The number of tests required to prevent a case is simply too large, and will prevent too few cases.