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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

996 replies

boys3 · 18/01/2022 22:17

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
411
JanglyBeads · 14/02/2022 06:10

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/?utmterm=Autofeed&utmmmedium=Social&utmsource=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3yUWWd09xpMxOluGAUyTe1xrTBpjWy5xbeJunoUN9YQ4UsiakSFdrkh54#

Notmulan · 14/02/2022 23:49

I joined the statistics today with a positive test . After two years escaping it I was secretly hoping I might have some super power immunity and would
Be a marvel of science ... but alas it wasn’t to be Wink feel ok though. Glad to see cases go down

containsnuts · 15/02/2022 07:45

So Deltacron is real after all!

I tried to find a better source but there just seems to be this one article repeated in several UK and Indian news outlets (not sure what's going on there Confused).

NB - I don't think it's necessarily a problem just an interesting discussion point.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10502843/Health-chiefs-officially-keeping-tabs-variant-thats-Omicron-Delta-merger.html

www.gov.uk/government/publications/sars-cov-2-variants-of-public-health-interest/sars-cov-2-variants-of-public-health-interest-11-february-2022#sars-cov-2-variants-of-public-health-interest-variants-detected-in-the-uk

lonelyplanet · 15/02/2022 12:00

Tom Peacock is investigating this. There appear to be 2 (different, I think) clusters. One looks like a recombinant between the AY.4 x BA.1 but doesn't have a name yet
github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/441

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022
lonelyplanet · 15/02/2022 12:09

I've been watching the growth of the BA.2 across the country. Out of interest, I was hoping to compare it with case rates changes in different regions but I'm not sure how accurate the dashboard is any more for case numbers.

Here are the maps for 17/1, 24/1 and 31/1

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022
lonelyplanet · 15/02/2022 12:11

7/2 and 14/2

Note the colour scale changes as cases grow.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022
JanglyBeads · 15/02/2022 15:51

LBC says all free testing to end next week (even in healthcare!):

www.lbc.co.uk/news/free-covid-tests-pcr-scrapped/

JanglyBeads · 15/02/2022 15:54

SPI B on why this shouldn't happen (published prior to today):

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/1054362/S15144SPI-Bnoteeonliftingg_restrictions.pdf

JanglyBeads · 15/02/2022 17:02

Would that mean the only free testing would be on admission to hospital for suspected Covid?

Or would organisations pay - healthcare, care homes, schools?? This has been mentioned as a possibility in the past.

lonelyplanet · 15/02/2022 17:36

BBC News - Covid in Wales: All five to 11-year olds offered jabs
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-60394709

containsnuts · 15/02/2022 19:29

@JanglyBeads

Would that mean the only free testing would be on admission to hospital for suspected Covid?

Or would organisations pay - healthcare, care homes, schools?? This has been mentioned as a possibility in the past.

There's certainly a lot less demand for the PCRs. I was at a walk in clinic today with DD and there was nobody else there! Staff said they had been quiet. I would have thought they could continue to fund testing for those who still want or need it. I suspect people who don't see the need won't be going anyway and those still testing will have a good reason (for us it's to protect CV relatives).
JanglyBeads · 16/02/2022 09:16

Dashboard Questionnaire!

Available til 20th. Link at top of Dashboard.

Might help ensure we still have data after the 24th?!

MarshaBradyo · 16/02/2022 09:18

More or Less good today on how much lower we were on actual figures v SAGE modelling

MarshaBradyo · 16/02/2022 09:21

A few factors - lower severity, vaccines worked etc but thought strange we didn’t take more notice of SA data which showed similar (expert’s view)

Easier in hindsight but it’s good we didn’t act on those figures with heavier lockdowns

JanglyBeads · 16/02/2022 11:16

But the population did act on those figures, some locking themselves down, many, many cancelling events and outings pre-Christmas.

It's just the govt who didn't act!

I only have listened this morning and will re listen, esp to the part re child deaths and hospitalisations.

containsnuts · 16/02/2022 12:19

@JanglyBeads

But the population did act on those figures, some locking themselves down, many, many cancelling events and outings pre-Christmas.

It's just the govt who didn't act!

I only have listened this morning and will re listen, esp to the part re child deaths and hospitalisations.

This is a key point. When reported cases are sky-high people change their behaviour to lower risk of exposure. Cases fall as a result. The problem going forward with testing and reporting being dropped is that nobody will know what's happening or know how or when to change their behaviour.
MarshaBradyo · 16/02/2022 12:31

It did cost over £1bn with that messaging as demand dropped

Hard to know the difference without it in figures

MarshaBradyo · 16/02/2022 12:56

It was t just case numbers either it was the nature of the messaging

Nabarro and the this is serious broadcast, Whitty and reduce your contacts and early on string rebuttal of decrease in severity

It was interesting to compare with o/s country where they led with it’s mild

MarshaBradyo · 16/02/2022 12:56

Wasn’t..

sirfredfredgeorge · 16/02/2022 13:23

I guess "people changed their behaviour anyway, so we might as well have had restrictions", I guess breaks down on who and how those behaviour changes hit.

Isolation and similar behaviour change does have significant health costs itself but like any it's not spread evenly between individuals. So if the messaging was wrong and people vulnerable to isolation isolated themselves then that's bad. But if it was only people who are less vulnerable to isolation then it doesn't matter so much.

It's been the same utterly failed communication from Whitty and public health england (and specifically them because that's their remit, specifically about public health so everything needs covering and not just covid harm) that lockdown and isolation is immune from harm, rather than a balance of harms.

containsnuts · 16/02/2022 14:17

I guess "people changed their behaviour anyway, so we might as well have had restrictions", I guess breaks down on who and how those behaviour changes hit.

Not sure if you were directly replying to my comment, but my point was more that restrictions are arguably NOT necessary because people change their own behaviour when cases are high. However, in order to do that they will need the relevant information. People can't make 'sensible' decisions about social mixing, mask wearing etc if kept in the dark about what's going on locally in terms outbreaks/hospital capacity etc. Agree with your point that self modifying behaviour still has consequences. For example it's difficult for restuarants when people cancel bookings.

sirfredfredgeorge · 16/02/2022 14:46

But I don't agree that people choosing to isolate themselves when "cases are high" is good, and giving "relevant information" to make "sensible" decisions is not possible, because there's no information provided on the risk of isolating yourself, on the risk to not going out etc.

If you believe that staying home has no negative health consequences, then choosing to not leave the house 'cos "cases are high" would appear a considerably more "sensible" decision than the reality where staying home carries a risk of other harms. Until Whitty provides that information as well as "case" information then you cannot argue that just give case information allows people to assess risk.

It's not assessing risk when you're only focusing on one outcome.

MarshaBradyo · 16/02/2022 14:55

I agree re harms but also a lot of behaviour change is due to messaging which heightens risks - we are not left to decide with the reality of it being very low risk for most

All the campaigns heightened this fear factor as it was the way to get compliance

I’m glad to see it go

JanglyBeads · 16/02/2022 15:21

But Fred you could argue that most people are pretty aware of the risks to MH etc of staying home.? Whereas Covid is something we needed/need educating about.

containsnuts · 16/02/2022 15:24

@sirfredfredgeorge

I'm not talking about people never leaving the house! I'm saying some people may choose not to do certain higher-risk activities such as going a concert or crowded indoor gathering when cases are sky high. Anyone choosing to do that will likely have good reason and feel themselves that the benefits of missing an activity outweigh the risks of engaging in it. That's what "living with covid" is going to be about - people making decisions for themselves based on information available to them at the time.

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