Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

ventilator beds

deaths within 28 days by date of death

and back to number in hospital showing all regions rates per million - again just England NHS regions

Individual region graphs to follow later

Numbers are looking hopeful.

Just saw this ( tweeted by Bristol Oliver) on vaccine efficacy against hospitalisation for 2 AZ plus Pfizer, hopefully it doesn’t drop lower ( we’ve ended up in the odd position in the U.K. that the least at risk population (30s and under) have the most effective vaccine ( I assume this in itself isn’t affecting the figures)

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1490380672506249225

The VE graphs in the UK surveillance report is not looking at hosptialisations for COVID, but any hospitalisations isn't it? So will we not have some serious age stratification and timing stratification issues here with comparing different vaccines? The AZ+booster people will be quite different to the all Pfizer people due to the original vaccine roll out, and the associated hospitalisation risk for any cause will be very different in the groups, and we have AZ hospitalisation better than Pfizer but AZ symptomatic worse the Pfizer.

The different profiles of the groups as a whole need considering - especially as you also look at moderna as primary vaccine as more effective than either - but that's another decidedly different profile.

That’s what I was wondering fred unclearly with the bit in my brackets - I hadn’t realised it was the figures for any hospitalisation (as opposed to with covid).

numbers in hospital graphs by English NHS region

South East and South West both largely flat still

as compared with North East & Yorkshire and North West both on very clear downward trajectory

and varying levels of falls in the final three

progression of regional rates in England since the start of January.

and age rates for England

0-19 bands first

at the other end 80 and over age bands

20-39s

40-59s

Very pertinent to these threads - a Canadian healthcare journalist tweets:

"1) Two years into the #pandemic, something odd is now occurring worldwide in the #COVID19 crisis, with the number of global deaths surging while cases seem to be falling. This has not happened quite this way previously. In this thread, I will try to explain why this is occurring."

twitter.com/aaron_derfel/status/1490333949176041477?s=21

Explanation for why admissions seem so high in infants?

twitter.com/alastairgrant4/status/1490620321816322051?s=21

[quote JanglyBeads]Very pertinent to these threads - a Canadian healthcare journalist tweets:

"1) Two years into the #pandemic, something odd is now occurring worldwide in the #COVID19 crisis, with the number of global deaths surging while cases seem to be falling. This has not happened quite this way previously. In this thread, I will try to explain why this is occurring."

twitter.com/aaron_derfel/status/1490333949176041477?s=21[/quote]
That's an interesting theory. I was reading yesterday about hospitalisations in Isreal with the suggestion/explaination being that it must be because not enough over 60s are vaccinated. I found that surprising since I always thought of Isreal being ahead in terms of vaccines and some having 4th doses already.

@JanglyBeads

Might explain this too although could just be reporting backlog?

contains I think there are a lot more incidental deaths at the moment and this is playing more of a part than lack of testing. And Tuesday is always the highest day.

If you look at deaths where Covid is mentioned on Death Certificate, 15 Jan is the highest with 243 deaths (how many would be added now?)

There was 288 deaths on 15th Jan within 28 days of positive Covid test.

On 01/11/21 there were 177 deaths 28 days after positive test, but 188 deaths had Covid in death certificate.

Because of the sheer number of cases recently, there are more deaths that would have happened and the positive test is incidental.

I've just picked a couple of dates out at random - it may be possible to find other examples contrary to what I have said.

[quote containsnuts]@JanglyBeads

Might explain this too although could just be reporting backlog? [/quote]
It is, the 2 days that were under reported have dropped out of the weekly figure, but the bumper catch up day of over is still included.

@Ohsofedupwiththis

contains I think there are a lot more incidental deaths at the moment and this is playing more of a part than lack of testing. And Tuesday is always the highest day.

If you look at deaths where Covid is mentioned on Death Certificate, 15 Jan is the highest with 243 deaths (how many would be added now?)

There was 288 deaths on 15th Jan within 28 days of positive Covid test.

On 01/11/21 there were 177 deaths 28 days after positive test, but 188 deaths had Covid in death certificate.

Because of the sheer number of cases recently, there are more deaths that would have happened and the positive test is incidental.

I've just picked a couple of dates out at random - it may be possible to find other examples contrary to what I have said.

Yes, there seems to have been a divergence between the "within 28 days of a positive test" and "on the death certificate" measures since Omicron appeared. It's discussed in this thread

mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1491023480816832512

Yes, there seems to have been a divergence between the "within 28 days of a positive test" and "on the death certificate" measures since Omicron appeared

The BBC now include the disclaimer "although some of these would have died of other causes" after each daily death count.

I think it is now accepted that the daily covid death numbers can be quite misleading.

Do the stats back up a drop in all restrictions including isolation?

@Dirtystreetpie

Do the stats back up a drop in all restrictions including isolation?

…that’s what I would like to know. I would like to hear an uncensored interview with someone like JVT. Not BJ practicing sleight of hand…

Isolation is currently failing to prevent significant spread.

Therefore harm falls on those who isolate, without providing benefit to wider society because spreading still happens.

Whilst there may certainly be a strong case that isolation is slowing spread, there's little reason to see that slowing spread without turning it negative is a positive thing.

Therefore, the options should be remove the harm to the individuals who are isolating, or increase measures to actually prevent spread.

Given there certainly isn't evidence for increasing measures to prevent spread (especially as even a full lockdown does not appear to achieve that) then yes, I would say there is little evidence that maintaining the current status quo in isolation rules is worthwhile.