Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-prime-minister-saying-remaining-covid-restrictions-including-self-isolation-law-may-be-lifted-this-month/

Robert Peston has tweeted:

No one in or around SAGE and Nervtag is aware of any scientific advice given to the PM that the requirement to isolate for those infected with Covid19 should be terminated from end of the month. “It’s politics, isn’t it” is a typical reaction

Dropping the isolation requirement seems unlikely to have a huge impact on cases. 50% of infections are never diagnosed so no impact on them. At least a fifth of people who test positive admit in surveys that they didn't isolate as instructed, so that's another 10% of all infections that it'll have no impact on. The most infectious time is around about the time of first symptoms so possibly getting on for half of all transmission will already have occurred before the remaining 40% of infectious people start to isolate. A lot aren't able to isolate from family members so the risk of transmission wasn't zero even when they were isolating. Plus of course people who are actually sick will as always stay home and away from others anyway even when it's not legally required. So all in all, I'd estimate no more than 5-10% increase in transmission from dropping the legal requirement to isolate - not enough to cause a new wave, it'll just make the fall a bit more gradual.

I think that once people get used to it, it'll make a big difference to the fear of catching covid though, and really will make life seem back to normal.

My understanding of what he said -

No isolating or testing but if positive don't go into work. How will people know they are positive if no testing?

Avoid your own place of work but it's fine to go into somebody else's place of work - restaurant, gym, hairdresser etc.

@containsnuts

My understanding of what he said -

No isolating or testing but if positive don't go into work. How will people know they are positive if no testing?

Avoid your own place of work but it's fine to go into somebody else's place of work - restaurant, gym, hairdresser etc.

I think it must mean if you're sick don't go to work. Or anywhere else you wouldn't normally go when sick. Ie treat it just like flu.

twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1491407656724340736
www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/timing-plan-exposes-limits-claims-government-following-science/

"Who is such an approach optimal for? For parliament, for a governing party, for factions within a governing party, or for a Prime Minister?"

Diverging case rates

How did Zoe diverge so much in the other direction in Jan?

Is it possible that the average Zoe user was significantly less likely to test positive then, and thus now be more likely than average?

How did Zoe diverge so much in the other direction in Jan?

My suspicion, which is without any proof, is that 20-30s are under represented. See the divergence in July too.

This however distracts from the possibility - suggested by zoe and ons - that cases are rising or at best levelling and not continuing to reduce to the extent the dashboard suggests.

Seems the people reporting symptoms on Zoe (now and in July) must be for whatever reason less likely to need hospitalisation since the official hospital/ICU figures don't rise along with rising numbers.

@containsnuts

Seems the people reporting symptoms on Zoe (now and in July) must be for whatever reason less likely to need hospitalisation since the official hospital/ICU figures don't rise along with rising numbers.

You might well be right about what's happening now - although remember the lag. However hospitalisations did rise in July.

This however distracts from the possibility - suggested by zoe and ons - that cases are rising or at best levelling and not continuing to reduce to the extent the dashboard suggests

But how is the area under the curve so much less in Zoe - they're saying there have been significantly less infections than either ONS or case rates imply? What's the mechanism, it cannot simply be 20-30 year olds, not least because the peak in 20-30 year old infection was earlier than others so the peak zoe and the peak general cases should've been different - but they are in the same place.

btw, I don't think cases are falling, I just don't think Zoe is very representative of the general population by its massive self selection, so it will under-report at times when people are most "aware" of covid as the groups who use zoe behave differently, and then over-report when there are no restrictions since more of other groups will have recent infection.

I think it's possible that cases are not falling, but fewer people are testing or reporting tests because the message we're increasingly getting is that we should start learning to live with covid by treating it more like flu. Hospitalisations and deaths could well be falling due to the new medicines that are now being prescribed to those most at risk.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Isolation is currently failing to prevent significant spread.

Therefore harm falls on those who isolate, without providing benefit to wider society because spreading still happens.

Whilst there may certainly be a strong case that isolation is slowing spread, there's little reason to see that slowing spread without turning it negative is a positive thing.

Therefore, the options should be remove the harm to the individuals who are isolating, or increase measures to actually prevent spread.

Given there certainly isn't evidence for increasing measures to prevent spread (especially as even a full lockdown does not appear to achieve that) then yes, I would say there is little evidence that maintaining the current status quo in isolation rules is worthwhile.

Very much agree with this

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/1052629/S14955SAGE1044minutes_.pdf

Highlights importance of ONS in the future.

inews reporting that ONS likely to be scrapped in April, along with the study of covid in care homes....

It will be a big mistake to scrap the ONS survey.

However, it makes sense to try and reduce its costs. I think many people do not realise that the program costs £390 million a year (I certainly did not). It is not a trivial amount:

www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/annualcostofthecovid19infectionsurvey

In reality, there is usually a middle ground. If we can halve the costs (e.g. by reducing the sample) and merge ONS with genomic sequencing, it will be pretty good value for money.

Do we need both the ONS and the React study? Wouldn't one or the other suffice? I suppose the other way you could monitor overall rates of infection would be the number of hospital admissions with covid, which would give you some sense of whether rates are rising or falling, and could also be used for sequencing to keep a look out for any new variants.

@Firefliess

Do we need both the ONS and the React study? Wouldn't one or the other suffice? I suppose the other way you could monitor overall rates of infection would be the number of hospital admissions with covid, which would give you some sense of whether rates are rising or falling, and could also be used for sequencing to keep a look out for any new variants.

This makes sense to me - use hospital data for both

The case numbers acted as a pre warning for measures so if that’s not required it becomes less needed in the community

The ONS study costs so much partly because they bumped up the sample size quite considerably in summer 2020 when case rates were very low and it became a bit useless at accurately measuring them. If you've now given up on ever eliminating covid and only really want to watch out for really high case numbers you could probably do that with a much lower sample size.

*This makes sense to me - use hospital data for both

The case numbers acted as a pre warning for measures so if that’s not required it becomes less needed in the community*

How would we know whether a pre warning was required? Surely that's the point of an early warning!

Great thread from Professor Pagel:

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1492042711771324416

"THREAD: I keep being asked when we can go "back to normal" or "like it was before". My personal thoughts:

We've added a new disease to our population, more infectious and more severe than flu.

The world pre 2020 no longer exists - we may want it to, but it just doesn't"

@lonelyplanet

*This makes sense to me - use hospital data for both

The case numbers acted as a pre warning for measures so if that’s not required it becomes less needed in the community*

How would we know whether a pre warning was required? Surely that's the point of an early warning!

It won’t be as necessary as it was.

We know that omicron peak hasn’t met the expected numbers that were modelled last year so past the natural peak numbers will fall

@lonelyplanet

Great thread from Professor Pagel:

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1492042711771324416

"THREAD: I keep being asked when we can go "back to normal" or "like it was before". My personal thoughts:

We've added a new disease to our population, more infectious and more severe than flu.

The world pre 2020 no longer exists - we may want it to, but it just doesn't"

I know people live this kind of thing on here but it’s typical scaremongering.

I know people live this kind of thing on here but it’s typical scaremongering.

Did you read the thread? There was no scaremongering involved. The thread was entirely about learning to live with a new normal. I can't believe Marsha, that anyone interested enough in the data to be following this thread would also try to pretend that it is all over.