Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

[boys3]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

I don't think it makes any difference if the kids are ill enough to not be in school or not, although it's pretty unlikely that the majority of them are ill enough for 10 days isolation, and the associated health loss.

What matters is that it's not proving to be an effective intervention, it's not working, there's high levels of transmission. So it's pointless, either the high level of transmission is okay, in which case there's no need for the measures, or the high levels of transmission is not okay, so we need to bring in more measures that work.

The one thing that is pointless is measures which achieve nothing, they cause (a small amount of harm) and make it harder to put in place meaningful measures when they might be required.

Omicron is a cold to children and healthy adults.

And back to data:
mobile.twitter.com/danielgoyal/status/1489495650630832130

From the Friday report: covidactuaries.org/2022/02/04/the-friday-report-issue-60/

"Last week, the UKHSA designated BA.2 as a Variant Under Investigation (link), and disclosed that 3.4% of variants sequenced as at 16 January were BA.2. In addition, preliminary data confirmed that BA.2 spreads more extensively in households, with a secondary attack rate of 13.4% compared with 10.3%
for Omicron .
However, even this data is becoming rapidly out of date. Denmark is a leading indicator of trends, with extensive up-to-date sequencing. The latest data suggests that BA.2 represents 85% of all variants sequenced in Denmark. A further study of viral transmission in Danish households released this week (link) estimated secondary attack rates of 39% for BA.2 as compared to 29% for Omicron and further concluded that
• BA.2 is significantly more transmissible than Omicron
• Full and booster vaccinations are less effective in reducing susceptibility to BA.2 than for Omicron
• Vaccination is still effective in reducing the likelihood of transmission with BA.2
There is no evidence that BA.2 is more virulent that Omicron. However, its ability to evade the immune response, higher transmission rate and greater lags in detection increase the likelihood of a further surge in infections. BA.2 will very likely soon be the dominant variant in the UK and other countries such as South Africa (it may already be so), and will achieve global dominance in coming weeks."

It is not yet known whether BA.1 will give enough immunity to prevent people being reinfected from BA.2

@sirfredfredgeorge

I don't think it makes any difference if the kids are ill enough to not be in school or not, although it's pretty unlikely that the majority of them are ill enough for 10 days isolation, and the associated health loss.

What matters is that it's not proving to be an effective intervention, it's not working, there's high levels of transmission. So it's pointless, either the high level of transmission is okay, in which case there's no need for the measures, or the high levels of transmission is not okay, so we need to bring in more measures that work.

The one thing that is pointless is measures which achieve nothing, they cause (a small amount of harm) and make it harder to put in place meaningful measures when they might be required.

I agree with you here about the need for meaningful measures. I'm not sure what these would look like though.

[quote lonelyplanet]Omicron is a cold to children and healthy adults.

And back to data:
mobile.twitter.com/danielgoyal/status/1489495650630832130[/quote]
Thanks for this. It isn't helpful at all. It's almost become something to be ashamed of if you are hit hard by covid.

In addition, preliminary data confirmed that BA.2 spreads more extensively in households, with a secondary attack rate of 13.4% compared with 10.3% for Omicron

Yes, but erm Delta:

The SAR in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18–33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24–53) in unvaccinated individuals

researchportal.ukhsa.gov.uk/en/publications/community-transmission-and-viral-load-kinetics-of-the-sars-cov-2-

So whilst talking up the SAR difference between BA2 and omicron might be interesting, explaining how it's both more infectious and have a SAR at least half the size of Delta.

It isn't helpful at all. It's almost become something to be ashamed of if you are hit hard by covid.

I totally agree with this. I consider myself pretty healthy (active job, healthy weight, take Vit D, C, Zinc) but felt totally rubbish for at least a week with Omicron earlier this month. Several colleagues had it at the same time, wide range of severity from asymptomatic through to bed-bound (though no one even close to hospitalisation), all triple jabbed, there was no obvious correlation with being 'healthy' as to whether we were hit hard or not.

Yes, but erm Delta:

From gov. variant technical briefing.

Why is that more reliable than the ukhsa paper?

That's not to say the other one is right, it's just the data on household SAR is all over the shop it just seems to always conveniently be higher with the "new" variant, but always at what is a really low level, and there's no consistency with it at all.

Presumably there's some subtle measuring difference that is detailed in the sources for the figures, but it certainly doesn't seem to be in any way comparable between uses.

Why is that more reliable than the ukhsa paper?
I'm not saying that, only that the Omicron sar data quoted came from the same source, so maybe more comparable.

My dh has been invited to submit DNA as a person who has been on ONS since Aug '20 and hasn't caught covid, something to do with enhanced vaccine response immunity. He is very pleased with himself. The other 5 of us in the house have all had it! Anyone know more about this additional research?

I've not heard of that, we're on the ONS survey but only I do the antibody test as the rest of my family are veinless wusses
I'll keep an eye out, as I've never had Covid , though that's probably because I don't go anywhere.

schoolsweek.co.uk/ministers-told-to-beef-up-waning-pupil-vaccination-rates/

[quote JanglyBeads]schoolsweek.co.uk/ministers-told-to-beef-up-waning-pupil-vaccination-rates/[/quote]
I wonder how they are going to do that? It'll be hard trying to convince reluctant people that the vaccines are necessary while simultaneously describing covid as 'mild', removing all protection measures and effectively declaring the pandemic over .

I am v pro vaccine in general, cv and had all mine as soon as I could, 12 year old double jabbed etc.

However my 10 year olds class has had it and seeing her and her friends all be fine (less than 12hours with a headache for mine) I dont think Ill get her jabbed if 5-12 vaccine comes out or my eldest a booster .

Id do me again whenever like flu jabs as cv but I think if someone as pro jabs as me ( clicking as soon as they were released) isnt going to jab kids now I think they're onto a losing battle there.

They did originally conclude that jab wasnt any benefit to kids didnt they..

The JCVI conclusion was that it was no overall health benefit for the age group when it was an effective vaccine at preventing infection, Whitty forced it through against the JCVI because it would prevent infection and the associated isolation.

Given the vaccine is no longer effective at preventing infection, the decisions should be reviewed, but Whitty appears entirely absent from work at the moment.

[quote JanglyBeads]schoolsweek.co.uk/ministers-told-to-beef-up-waning-pupil-vaccination-rates/[/quote]
On the account they advise 12 week wait from catching covid I can't see many school children being eligible for the next 10 weeks or so.

@ChildHeadache

They did originally conclude that jab wasnt any benefit to kids didnt they..

Please add your data on this.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-of-children-and-young-people-aged-12-to-17-years-jcvi-statement/jvci-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-and-young-people-aged-12-to-17-years-15-july-2021

Has not been updated since, so their statement:

"At this time, JCVI is of the view that the health benefits of universal vaccination in children and young people below the age of 18 years do not outweigh the potential risks"

And remember since then, the vaccine has been shown to be ineffective and preventing transmission, so any of the wider benefits has also gone.

Thanks Sirfred. Yes its the JVCI report I was thinking of as that was mainstream news originally. Scientists deemed it not needed. I can't remember when the govt decided against this. As you say it was thought to be useful to stop the spread and blatently isn't doing that!

And yes where is Chris Whitty?

It’s a bit more complicated than Scientists deem it not needed. JCVI were the second group of U.K. scientists to look at it. The MHRA had already concluded that on an individual level the benefits outweighed the risks in that age group. I think (although prepared to be wrong on this) that when the minutes of the jcvi meeting were revealed they came to the same conclusion but still didn’t think universal vaccination was worthwhile. Possibly because the risk benefit ratio was so small it wasn’t worth rolling out a national campaign.

Part of the problem is that risk is calculated using the likelihood of catching covid and the likelihood of morbidity/mortality if you do catch it. JCVI under calculated the first. They were working on the assumption that kids were unlikely to catch covid because of the high uptake of vaccines in adults. This turned out to be a mistake. Which became quite obvious when schools went back in September.

We’re basically in a position where some scientists are out on their own based on a calculation that most kids probably wouldn’t catch Covid meanwhile kids are catching it left right and centre. It’s a bit odd.

England health metric graphs - largely same format as those done before. The short term comparison tweaked to be mid Dec to end Feb at the moment -although the graph headers probably need updating in a number of cases. Numbers in ventilator beds also added.

These start with number in hospital

admissions