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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 18th January 2022

996 replies

boys3 · 18/01/2022 22:17

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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411
JanglyBeads · 04/02/2022 22:00



treeflowercat · 04/02/2022 22:37

Just looked at Worldometers...

Craziest stat was the Faroe Islands, where 19% - 1 in 5 - of the population recorded a positive Covid test over the last fortnight...

For comparison, that would be like the U.K. recording an average of over 900,000 confirmed cases per day over a two week period - insane!

And the U.K. has a lower case rate per head of population than every single country in Western Europe with the sole exception of Ireland.

treeflowercat · 04/02/2022 22:44

Re Denmark and likely long term scenarios - we really don't have much evidence that people are likely to get infected regularly with the same strain.

Indeed, it would make omicron unique i believe if prior infection provided virtually no protection against a reinfection over a brief timescale.

treeflowercat · 04/02/2022 23:03

Also, regarding Denmark and it's insanely higher infection rate combined with removing restrictions... I may be wrong, and this may seem counter-intuitive, but wouldn't these tactics make it less likely for a new variant to emerge rather than more likely within the country, than half-hearted attempts to "flatten the curve".

The sharper the peak, the quicker the fall, with the result that there is less time for the virus to mutate. Suppressing Covid simply extends the period of the wave, extending the period over which mutations will happen, giving the virus more chance develop into a form which can resist the immunity provided by the ancestral virus that triggered the wave.

For instance, if it typically takes the virus 1,000 generations to mutate into an evasive form, and it takes eight weeks for the virus to pass through 1,000 generations, you want your infections to be as low as possible around and after this period. A flatter curve could be mitigations would not only lower the peak but, in so doing, would mean higher numbers of infections at this point than fully unmitigated spread (as the unmitigated spread would have burnt, or be burning out), thus increasing the chance of evading mutations. If I had the time I could probably do some proper maths to show this, but I appreciate there may be flaws in my rationale.

Firefliess · 04/02/2022 23:45

I don't think that's quite how mutations happen @tree. It's not something that happens gradually over lots of generations. The mutations that have caused us problematic new strains have occurred by chance just in one person - possibly someone with a weak immune system who takes a long time to fight the infection off. So I think you'd have the same chance of a new mutation if everyone gets it at once Vs if you "flatten the curve" and spread the infections over a longer period.

Much less distribution in schools though if the whole class really does go down with it at once rather than a few kids off each week for months! Plus of course you don't have all the damage by whatever it is you have to do to slow things down (economic hit of curbs on hospitality, costs of test and trace etc)

treeflowercat · 05/02/2022 00:19

@Firefliess

I don't think that's quite how mutations happen @tree. It's not something that happens gradually over lots of generations. The mutations that have caused us problematic new strains have occurred by chance just in one person - possibly someone with a weak immune system who takes a long time to fight the infection off.

If significant mutations of concern are developing in immune-compromised people who have been brewing the mutation for months then arguably a sharp and fast wave would be no different to a shallow and slow one.

However, our belief that variants of concern can develop in those with immune conditions precisely because they play host to an active virus over a long period of many months indicates that it does indeed require many, many generations to achieve sufficient mutation to evade the original virus.

At the core of evolutionary theory is that random mutations occur in each generation and that these compound and further compound over time. Time is absolutely key.

In the same way humans didn't spring from chimp-like apes over just a few thousand years, so Covid won't (or is very unlikely to) mutate from an Omicron to a Pi (next Greek letter) variant over the life of a single ten-day infection!

Notwithstanding the impact of immune-compromised individuals, 100,000 infections per day over 10 days would seem far less likely to generate a radically different variant than, say, 10,000 infections per day over 100 days, despite the fact there were 1,000,000 infections in each scenario.

That's why I think a sharp and fast wave is less likely, or certainly not more likely, to lead to another variant than a slower wave whose curve has been flattened.

treeflowercat · 05/02/2022 00:23

So in conclusion...
Letting it rip = A lower chance of spawning a new variant.

lonelyplanet · 05/02/2022 08:53

Much less distribution in schools though if the whole class really does go down with it at once rather than a few kids off each week for months!

Except the current levels of disruption in schools do not show this. The disruption currently in my region is far worse than it has been at any other point in the pandemic. In my school many classes have a third of the children off but they all come and go at different times. It is not the whole class at once. Catching up with missed learning is very difficult in this situation especially as with staff absence classes are having to be combined/ split and TA support is in short supply. We had it pretty bad before Christmas but this is much worse. Some children are now on their 3rd round of covid since September. We are doing our best to provide good quality online learning but most of the children are too poorly or tired to access it. Sorry to rant, but minimising what is happening in schools is not helpful. Children deserve better than this.

borntobequiet · 05/02/2022 09:11

Sorry to rant, but minimising what is happening in schools is not helpful. Children deserve better than this.

Minimising what’s happening in schools is a regular feature, on here and elsewhere. It’s shocking.

sirfredfredgeorge · 05/02/2022 09:15

Indeed, ending testing and isolation of school children needs to happen, it is not preventing spread, it's just causing disruption.

alreadytaken · 05/02/2022 09:24

The more cases of covid you have the more mutations are likely, having all your cases at once does not change that.

More evidence for taking your vitamin D supplements www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/does-vitamin-d-work-on-covid-after-all-israeli-study-suggests-so/ar-AATtszF?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAnZ9Ug

borntobequiet · 05/02/2022 09:24

Children and staff becoming sick is causing disruption.

alreadytaken · 05/02/2022 09:24

And anti-vaxers please note vitamin D alone is not enough

MarshaBradyo · 05/02/2022 10:08

@sirfredfredgeorge

Indeed, ending testing and isolation of school children needs to happen, it is not preventing spread, it's just causing disruption.
This will change the situation I agree, but also we seem to be past the peak here as emailed by school cases were dropping.
treeflowercat · 05/02/2022 10:37

@alreadytaken

The more cases of covid you have the more mutations are likely, having all your cases at once does not change that.

You don't seem to have even tried to engage with my reasoning...

It's not the total number of mutations, it's the number of compounding of mutations that matters in terms of developing a new variant.

If, hypothetically, everyone got Covid at the same time, they'd be as many mutations as if everyone got it over many months... the key difference is that the virus has the chance to mutate through many more generations over the course of months than it does over the course of a typical single infection. Every time a carrier passes the virus on to another, it will be very slightly different to the version that infected the carrier.... Those changes and mutations multiply and compound over time.

Virus evolution is similar to animal evolution, just sped up by many orders of magnitude.

treeflowercat · 05/02/2022 10:40

Except the current levels of disruption in schools do not show this. The disruption currently in my region is far worse than it has been at any other point in the pandemic. In my school many classes have a third of the children off but they all come and go at different times. It is not the whole class at once

And that pattern is driven by testing and isolation.... Take those away and you no longer have children going off in dribs and drabs, just extending the whole process.

lonelyplanet · 05/02/2022 10:58

Indeed, ending testing and isolation of school children needs to happen, it is not preventing spread, it's just causing disruption.

And that pattern is driven by testing and isolation.... Take those away and you no longer have children going off in dribs and drabs, just extending the whole process

Both these statements are out of touch with what is actually happening. Most children and staff who are at home are ill, this seems to be more so with this wave. Removing isolation may prevent some people from being at home but may also increase the spread so there is more absence. It would be fine if you could only catch it once, but this clearly isn't the case.

containsnuts · 05/02/2022 11:40

Also, ending ALL covid measures suddenly and in the middle of the winter means other viruses could rebound aswell. Remember the RSV and noro outbreaks after restrictions were eased last time? It won't just be covid keeping kids are off. It'll be covid on top of everything else.

Sundayvibes · 05/02/2022 11:56

Omicron is a cold to children and healthy adults.
We need to stop testing healthy people at some point and return to normal.
This needs to end at some point.

EducatingArti · 05/02/2022 12:00

Onicron is NOT always a cold to healthy adults and children.

puppetere · 05/02/2022 12:27

Take those away and you no longer have children going off in dribs and drabs, just extending the whole process

Both these statements are out of touch with what is actually happening.

I'm not sure it is out of touch.

My experience is that many adults are indeed ill. (Not sure it is really true much of children though.)

But they are often not ill enough to take the entire 5/7/10 days off.

My personal experience is of being ill enough to call in sick for a day, maybe two, and I was essentially sofa-bound for a day. The rest of it I'd have popped a pill and pushed through it back in the office. And experience seems to be quite common.

(My OH got it worse, and would have probably taken more time off. But still nothing close to the full isolation period.)

I don't think it's obvious that removing isolation would leave us net worse off. I grant it might be close — an increased volume of 1-or-2 day absences would add up.

treeflowercat · 05/02/2022 12:57

@containsnuts

Also, ending ALL covid measures suddenly and in the middle of the winter means other viruses could rebound aswell. Remember the RSV and noro outbreaks after restrictions were eased last time? It won't just be covid keeping kids are off. It'll be covid on top of everything else.
I don't see how the restrictions, or lack of, we currently have would impact significantly on norovirus or RSV.
treeflowercat · 05/02/2022 13:10

Both these statements are out of touch with what is actually happening. Most children and staff who are at home are ill, this seems to be more so with this wave. Removing isolation may prevent some people from being at home but may also increase the spread so there is more absence. It would be fine if you could only catch it once, but this clearly isn't the case.

You can't catch omicron straight after omicron... It would make the virus unique if it was! People are catching omicron after Delta. After 6-9 months, people may become susceptible again, but it's omicron isn't some never-ending merry-go-round
where you can catch it as soon as you've recovered.

SellFridges · 05/02/2022 14:42

School just had 150 kids off in a week here, plus a few staff (not loads though). I’ve heard of two kids out of that who have been unwell, but both had secondary infections after clearing covid. Almost all of them were fine to be at school after 1-2 days at home. That’s over 1000 school days lost needlessly.

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