Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

It's a model of course, so can be very confounded by changes in testing behaviour, it's producing similar results to the LSHTM's similar model:

epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-kingdom/

Without restrictions, and a highly infectious virus, then you do expect R to collapse, it's only with peaks reached with restrictions and less infectious that trundle along for longer.

ZOE estimate the UK R value to be around 1.0 and regional R values are; England, 1.0, Wales, 1.0, Scotland, 1.0.

Where I am, there's still no access to LFTs. Despite the official line being that all is well, two boxes have had to last us a month and we've now run out so we're not able to test despite 'cold' type symptoms in the house. That's bound to have an effect on numbers.

They're readily available online @containsnuts. I just had a look and there's availability right now. Order today and they should come tomorrow.

I'm a bit bored with all this negativity around nobody testing any more. There's data on testing which is clearly showing no big drop off - tests are generally available and people are using them as much as ever.

lonely note the graph on here in the last couple of days, Zoe goes pretty wrong when cases peak in 20-29 year olds, their R conclusions would be impacted the same.

Personally I really struggle to see how Zoe can be at all representative, it must be hugely biased to those who are concerned about covid, given the self selecting nature of it.

@Firefliess

They're readily available online *@containsnuts*. I just had a look and there's availability right now. Order today and they should come tomorrow.

I'm a bit bored with all this negativity around nobody testing any more. There's data on testing which is clearly showing no big drop off - tests are generally available and people are using them as much as ever.

Thanks, I just popped on now and you're right they had availablity to book. Yaaay!

However, let's not downplay the fact that it has been difficult depending on area to get hold of these. That's the first time in a month of checking online I've been able to book. None of the local pharmacys had any as of yesturday so it's bound to have an impact especially for those vulnerable/not regularly online.

I have managed to order a couple of boxes recently as well.

Those designated vulnerable though and who should receive the new treatments have PCR kits as well dont they. A friend with MS has one all ready to go if she has symptoms

What happened to moonshot?

@sirfredfredgeorge

lonely note the graph on here in the last couple of days, Zoe goes pretty wrong when cases peak in 20-29 year olds, their R conclusions would be impacted the same.

Personally I really struggle to see how Zoe can be at all representative, it must be hugely biased to those who are concerned about covid, given the self selecting nature of it.

Please could you direct me to that graph. I posted a graph to show how ons numbers appeared to be too low when 20 to 29 year olds were high, but I don't remember seeing a zoe graph. Happy to be corrected.

Zoe is often a good indicator and I would imagine is far better an indicator than current case numbers. It is posive as they are going down, but more slowly than case numbers lead you to believe.

For anyone struggling with LFT availability - there’s an account on Twitter that is sharing availability for LFTs online covering the four nations - UK LFT Alert it’s called, it’s not an official account, but has always been accurate when I’ve been ordering test kits.

I posted a graph to show how ons numbers appeared to be too low when 20 to 29 year olds were high, but I don't remember seeing a zoe graph

The graph you showed, I never said it was a Zoe graph?

Zoe is often a good indicator and I would imagine is far better an indicator than current case numbers

Sorry, I just cannot see any possible way that a narrative that "Zoe is accurate 'cos random people are faithfully recording their information in Zoe". works against the same narrative "Cases are inaccurate 'cos random people are not doing tests"

Both systems rely on people opting in to testing, and the Zoe one is considerably more onerous on the individuals than the testing one.

I have no reason to believe the models for an R of 0.6 to be right, but equally no reason at all to believe Zoe either, all of them are extremely sensitive to their models of behaviour and sampling, given all of behaviour, sampling, testing and the virus itself has changed completely in the last six weeks, it's pretty unlikely that any are any good.

Oh, and if Zoe is 1, what is the explanation for falling cases and admissions?

[quote PolkaDot456]@boys3[/quote]
@PolkaDot456

NE and NW, and Yorks and Humber for that matter all peaked higher than London's overall rate. Inner London peak higher than Yorks & Humber but lower than the other two

@WarriorN

It's still on the up in some areas of the NE so I can't imagine its just behaviour based

which part of the NE still on the up - are you referencing MSOA level?

So, if we are having a fall now, does anyone know if there is an actual rationale for why another wave is predicted in early summer?

(anything to do with what is going on in schools do you think?)

Sorry, I just cannot see any possible way that a narrative that "Zoe is accurate 'cos random people are faithfully recording their information in Zoe"

Whether you understand it or not, Zoe has been a very good and accurate early indicator of rises and falls throughout the pandemic. The r rate has been reflected in this. They are currently saying we have just passed the peak and I would believe this from looking at the ons data and regional hospital data, rather than believing that cases have made such a rapid decline. Either way things are looking positive, but just not at the 'it's all over' stage that the government want us to believe. I think the thing we should all have taken from the last 2 years is a modicum of caution makes one look less foolish than frequent bold statements that have to be retracted.

@herecomesthsun

So, if we are having a fall now, does anyone know if there is an actual rationale for why another wave is predicted in early summer?

(anything to do with what is going on in schools do you think?)

Who is predicting another wave in early summer?

Was widely reported yesterday.

@pussycatunpickingcrossesagain

What happened to moonshot?

Isn't moonshot the original name given to the project to develop and distribute LFTs? I remember when it was mentioned way back in 2020 thinking it seemed amazing that we could all test in our own homes and get a result in 15 minutes!

From a skim yesterday, The rationale for a summer wave was related to falling immunity

I suppose it would be 6 months since booster. And biggest omnicron wave?

Or 4 months rather.

If anyone is having trouble getting LFTs try your local library. Ours has larger boxes containing 20 tests. No code needed. Don’t need to be a member. Just walk in and can get one box.

@bordermidgebite

From a skim yesterday, The rationale for a summer wave was related to falling immunity

Looks like vulnerable people might need another booster in a few months if cases creep up again as immunity wanes.

It's the latest SAGE paper /minutes that predict an early summer wave, due to waning immunity and more gatherings iirc.