Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

29th December that is.

Why are current death rates rising? Is this just a hangover from cases being so high?

@sirfredfredgeorge

So I guess we shouldn't read too much into a fall in the last week or so

Where would you get the positivity rate change? The dashboard only offers 7 day rates until the 9th, which includes little to none of the changed advice testing. Even the 9th itself (which mostly wouldn't appear on the positivity graph yet as that's specimen date remember and the test positivity is date it took I believe) was over 2/3rds confirmed which is higher than the confirmed ratio on the 29th etc.

Ok, it's the week following the change in guidance where we might expect the fall in positivity to occur as a result of fewer confirmatory PCRs

Yep, I think the fall in positivity so far is a genuine fall - especially with the lower confirmation of LFT's that happened over the peak anyway - almost certainly due to low availability of test spots meant people didn't bother.

But we should see soon yep.

I think it will take a lot longer than a week for the message re LFT positives being reliable to get through. Even with the evidence of the rule change.

@Weredone

Why are current death rates rising? Is this just a hangover from cases being so high?

Cases are falling because the number of tests has dropped dramatically.

@AllThePogs so cases are falling a lot less than we’re being led to believe? The death rates seem to be rising sharply for the first time since last year.

John Burn Murdoch must read this thread

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1483062311971704833?s=21

Not sure if it might be a day or so early to be so sure though?

@Allthepogs That's not correct. The number of tests has not dropped dramatically. Look at the government website to see the data for yourself

@Firefliess According to the government website, the number of tests conducted has dropped by over a million in the last seven days.
I think that is a dramatic fall.

Cases have dropped by 38% and tests by only 9.1% which suggests that the case drop is not just a reflection or reduced testing.

@cathyandclare does it? Or does it mean only people who feel really ill are testing so they can stay off work in bed?

@AllThePogs- I would expect a rise in positivity if that was the case, which, for the figures we have, has actually fallen slightly. Admittedly we are awaiting more up to date positivity data.

Okay I hope so. But I remain unconvinced.

@cathyandclare does it? Or does it mean only people who feel really ill are testing so they can stay off work in bed?

You can self certify yourself for 28 days without wasting any time with a test! If that's your motivation, just do it.

John Burn Murdoch must read this thread

Or maybe they're on the thread, boys always has a lot of data and good graphs...

@sirfredfredgeorge No employer I have worked for will just accept your say so.

No employer I have worked for will just accept your say so

111.nhs.uk/isolation-note/
or indeed any other sick note, no requirement for a test or anything else, like other "sick note" for other reasons you can get one, and because of boosters you can currently do it up to 28 days rather than the normal 7.

@sirfredfredgeorge as I said they wouldn't simply accept that, especially not for 28 days. It would be a visit to occupational health.

AllThePogs they are required to aren't they? That's the whole point of the law which is designed to avoid people consuming GP resources?

I think the other thing re “is the case data trend real” is to reflect that historically despite all sorts of changes in testing availability etc the trends ie up and down and the timeframes have tended to be correct and consistent once we have all the data in. The same happened after the summer euros peak when it was claimed it wasn’t real, wasn’t reflected in the ons data, in hospitalisations was just because kids were off school and no longer testing abs it turned out that all the day did fall into line. At the moment we have a fall in Zoe, fall in reported cases abs a suggestion of early flattening in ons and hospital data. Realistically then as now all the data is over time heading in the same direction and I expect deaths ti follow after the usual lag.

It’s the same on the way up of course when increases are often blamed on increased testing but subsequently shown to be real but I think overall testing basis has shown to be accurate on s population level even with changes to the testing regime and rises are rises abs falls falls even if we are not and never will be catching every cases in the community.

@sirfredfredgeorge most places give out warnings if you have more than a weeks of sickness. It makes zero difference if you have a self-certification sick note. Lots of employers are wary of self-certification notes.

I think the trend of a fall in cases is real and is what I would expect after a spike of positive cases after Christmas and New Year. I am not convinced the amount of the fall is accurate.

@Weredone

Why are current death rates rising? Is this just a hangover from cases being so high?

Reported deaths have been quite high the last few days, but looking at the "by date of death" deaths are actually much flatter, although, yes, increased since Xmas. There has been quite a lag, and a lot of catching up done over the last couple of weeks.

@AllThePogs

I think the trend of a fall in cases is real and is what I would expect after a spike of positive cases after Christmas and New Year. I am not convinced the amount of the fall is accurate.

The pool of people open to infection is progressively going down. As you note, 1 in 20 of the population have been infected over the last few weeks, so that's 20% of people recently infected. 20% seem to be immune. Another large percentage will be protected through vaccination, although I accept (and know) quite a few who have been infected despite boosters. School children were hit hard before xmas, they are really the only ones who are mixing at the moment. Most people still WFH and being January, everyone is holed up at home.

1 in 20 is 5%.