Booster protection wanes after 10 weeks against omicron….

[Muchtoomuchtodo]

Just seen this on the BBC news
… mine was 13 1/2 weeks ago and I’ve just volunteered to cover extra shifts outside of my normal area of work in the NHS should the need arise.
Oh heck…..

@Remmy123

It's just a mild virus!!

It's mild to those who have immunity through vaccination. The unvaccinated remain vulnerable.

The unvaccinated remain vulnerable

I would say it's the immune naive that remain vulnerable rather than the unvaccinated specifically.

@Blubells

I don’t think anyone knows - I certainly don’t. It’s just a hope!

My main point is emerging science v accepted science.

And that the best thing is to stick to the NHS and WHO guidance until the emerging science becomes accepted science and feeds their guidance.

I would say it's the immune naive that remain vulnerable rather than the unvaccinated specifically.
Yes, fair point, I agree. I feel the message that the virus is intrinsically mild is a dangerous one as it suggests that the vaccine is not playing a role in reducing the severity.

People who had their booster over 10 weeks ago will make up this data. It's not about how long omicron has been around.

For those relying on the 'mild' hopes. Here's an example to illustrate why we still need to put in protections.

A virus which causes 20% of infections to be severe and 100 people infected = 20 severe cases.

A virus which causes 5% of infections to be severe and 500 people are infected = 25 severe cases.

A small percentage of a large number can be a very big amount.

@MaxNormal no. The NHS guidance is that it’s best to get vaccinated and that the unvaccinated are vulnerable. So we follow that and not your ‘hunch’.

The graphic below from the report suggests waning starts from week 5

It does indeed; the "10 week" thing came from the BBC, who may well have been leaned on to make it sound better by those who hold the purse strings

As PPs have said that doesn't mean it's useless, but I can't quite see this will encourage take up

@Beadebaser it's hardly a hunch. South Africa has just stopped quarantine and contact tracing due to 80% of the population having had the virus.

This virus was, at the start, termed novel as it was new to our immune systems and hence dangerous. Once exposed, that immune naivety is gone.
In the same way that Spanish flu still circulates but is no longer deadly on a mass scale.

This is basic stuff, or should be.

A 5 week protection from the booster?

Is this because it's not targeting the omicron variant specifically?

@Siuan yes of course everyone losing immune naivety through infection in the absence of the protection of vaccination would kill a great many people, I suppose vaccines allow us a safer way to get to that point.

We may as well get on with it before more elderly people lose their immunity

@MaxNormal

That is emerging evidence. It is dangerous to base our decisions on that until it becomes accepted science. There will be many emerging studies at the moment, many of which will be contradicting each other.

This is why we should follow the NHS and WHO guidance STILL.

I think the 4th jab is just for the vulnerable.
If there are lots of mild omicron or delta infections it will become like any other cold over time as we have repeat infections and gain both natural and vaccine immunity.
Excess vaccines should be sent elsewhere, or be used on the vulnerable, not jabbing healthy young people repeatedly.
As for long Covid there are plenty of post viral syndromes that need treatment (such as EBV) and this falls under that. Many cases of long Covid pass with time too.
People who are shielding will need additional jabs but they will also remain careful as there are plenty of other viruses that they need to avoid.

A big part of omicron being mild is down to so many people having immunity due to vaccines and/or having had covid previously

But the majority in South Africa haven't been vaccinated and they are still saying it's mild.

@Blubells

A 5 week protection from the booster?

Is this because it's not targeting the omicron variant specifically?

Yes the vaccines are still for the original variant. I said elsewhere that I was a bit surprised they'd not updated them for Delta at least, but I guess it takes time to formulate and distribute them in the quantities required.

[quote Prescottdanni123]@NCnotmyusualone
But the people who had their booster weeks ago are likely to be vulnerable and old. So even getting covid in the form of a heavy cold or mild flu could make them really unwell. Not necessarily a sign that the booster is already waning. It is too early for speculation and panic.[/quote]
Any half decent study will adjust for variables such as age/co-morbidities so that it is reporting as close to like for like data as possible.

@MaxNormal

The unvaccinated remain vulnerable

I would say it's the immune naive that remain vulnerable rather than the unvaccinated specifically.

Yes, those of us who've had Covid have protection now. As it's early days we won't know whether that protection is lifelong or not but it's certainly way longer than that provided by the mRNA shot.

@JuergenSchwarzwald

A big part of omicron being mild is down to so many people having immunity due to vaccines and/or having had covid previously

But the majority in South Africa haven't been vaccinated and they are still saying it's mild.

Most of them have probably had covid, even if not tested/recorded officially.

The other thing about SA that makes it less comparable is that the average age of the population is much lower.

[quote Terminallysleepdeprived]@RoseAndRose my point exactly. Not been around long enough for a study to exist[/quote]
Agree. It's not been long enough to draw any conclusions about anything re Omicron. The first cases were only 4 weeks ago, and tiny numbers then. They've studied those few cases and drawn massive conclusions from it. I think it's irresponsible to broadcast that to the world.

"but it's certainly way longer than that provided by the mRNA shot"

That's not true is it? All the real world studies show that infections and jabs provide better protection against infection alone, and infection by delta gives almost no protection against reinfection.

Hospitalisation data for Omicron is unclear but plenty of people have come a cropper believing that natural infection is superior to vaccines. After all without them we'd all still be in some sort of lockdown

I’m done with vaccines and boosters. I’ve had my booster and was so unwell and for 10 weeks protection I’m not willing to have another,

Dh on the other hand is willing to keep going,

still saying it's mild.

Most of them have probably had covid, even if not tested/recorded officially.

What are you basing this on? Sounds like you think most of England have not had it. Why?

I think we have to remember this is a extreme cold virus, normally you can't vaccinate against them and even you have it this year the same bastard cold can get you next year. This is why the vaccines are essential. Those that are relying on having immunity early in the outbreak will not have effective antibodies