They could at least have the decency to let people know...

[Loveatthe5anddime]

We all know some kind of restrictions are coming, I don’t want to start the new year with rules in place but if the scientists think it’s the way forward I trust their judgment and will comply.

What I cannot get on board with however as all this hanging about....

Let people know what’s going on, flights and hotels will have been booked, family’s will have bought food accordingly or not on some instances if they were planning to visit friends and family, children will be excited to go to pantomimes, visit grandparents, restaurants will be ordering in stock for New Years parties...

Surely the very least the government can give us is a little time to manage expectations and re plan the next couple of weeks...

The government were following the science and even the very vocal anti lockdown people were ( reluctantly) supporting it the first time around
Then we had Dominic Cummings and all that carry on, the Matt Hancock debacle , the party gate photos , the general feeling of ' us and them ' and now people have generally had enough
Unfortunately, the new variant has come along and will probably spoil Christmas and people won't take any notice of any of them and do and see who they want
You can't blame them really .

@MarshaBradyo

What did we do after the others?

I’d say the new variant doubling time means a fresh think on that…

I think a road map and a testing and recalibration of NPIs in stages like after lockdown 1 and 3 will be necessary.

Opening straight up again, as after lockdown 2, would be unwise.

If the measures they implement now, don't bring down cases enough they may have to go in completely the other direction.

They know. Don't be so easily fooled.

How to tell me you don't know what is going on without telling me you don't know what is going on 😉

Wouldn’t it be nice if there was a protocol decided in advance with factors such as:

If cases hit x
and
hospitalisations hit y
and
deaths hit z

then measure A, B, C, D etc

and then there’s no mystery, there’s a clear protocol so we know what’s likely to happen and we as a society of individuals can take our decisions seriously if we want to bring x, y or z under control to avoid A, B, C, or D.

And when restrictions are then imposed we know why and we do so transparently as a society.

@brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Wouldn’t it be nice if there was a protocol decided in advance with factors such as:

If cases hit x
and
hospitalisations hit y
and
deaths hit z

then measure A, B, C, D etc

and then there’s no mystery, there’s a clear protocol so we know what’s likely to happen and we as a society of individuals can take our decisions seriously if we want to bring x, y or z under control to avoid A, B, C, or D.

And when restrictions are then imposed we know why and we do so transparently as a society.

There are protocols for all these scenarios;

Excess mortality

Hospitals declaring critical incidents

Operational Pressures Escalation framework

Managing the deceased during a pandemic

Provision of temporary mortuaries

All can be viewed on-line, so knock yourself out

I remember the scientists saying in the summer that there may need to be additional measures in place in the winter, and that was before Omicron reared its ugly head

Ok but does it link those criteria to covid restrictions - how many cases per day / hospitialisations / deaths = close the pubs ?

@toomuchlaundry

I remember the scientists saying in the summer that there may need to be additional measures in place in the winter, and that was before Omicron reared its ugly head

Plus, TBF, the scientists were saying right at the beginning that there would likely be various rolling measures, depending on cases/seasons etc, for an undetermined period of time.

Far too many people just heard/took away “three weeks to flatten the curve” or “freedom day, no more restrictions”. And then those phrases were regularly thrown about online, gathering momentum.

And before anyone dives in, I AM NOT A BLOODY LOCKDOWN LOVER. or a doom monger. Nor am I frothing or salivating at the thought of restrictions. I’m pretty bloody miserable about the whole thing, on top of my own health problems even before Covid.

I’ve tried to listen to what the scientists have been saying from the start - not what the politicians bluster their way through re what they think people want to hear.

Am still gobsmacked that, this far down the line, there are still posters on multiple threads saying along the lines of “well I know x amount of vaccinated people who still got Covid” or “vaccinated people can still pass it on, what’s the point” and a multitude of other phrases that are probably going to result in me leaving this mortal coil because I’ve banged my head on a hard surface in frustration.

@brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Ok but does it link those criteria to covid restrictions - how many cases per day / hospitialisations / deaths = close the pubs ?

Every Trust/Hospital is aware of all these protocols and feed in the statistics/information to DOH for collection.

After that there will be a very complex analysis of the trends that have been flagged up involving a great deal of number-crunching & projections by statisticians involving goodness knows how many variables and computer modelling. These are instruments not oracles because it isn't an exact science.

More info here:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/containing-and-managing-local-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreaks/covid-19-contain-framework-a-guide-for-local-decision-makers#:~:text=Compliance%20and%20enforcement%20The%20Health,19%20compliance%20and%20enforcement.

The government is 'between a rock and a hard place', as they say.

If they lock-down hard they will save lives but cripple the economy and certainly sectors may never recover. It temporarily stops transmission which may start again as soon as controls are lifted. Lockdowns are only 'kicking the can down the road'.

If they have less stringent controls then they could keep the economy going but have preventable deaths in the vulnerable sector of the population..

It was hoped that we could vaccinate our way out of the pandemic but Omicron has thrown out a 'curved ball'.

The last full lockdown (March 2020) came when cases reached 100,000 per day.
We are now running at 82,000 per day.

Epidemiology is a specialist discipline.

I see the government are still playing politics with the decision on covid measures.

Every two days the government delays cases double - which means hospitalisations and deaths double.

@GiveMeNovocain

Didn't scientists say vaccination was our way out of this? Have we now decided they don't work? Everyone even slightly vulnerable was tremble vaccinated weeks ago

As I recall, scientists warned that leaving huge populations in the poorest countries unvaccinated would lead to variants emerging for which vaccines might be less effective. Which is exactly what happened.

Vaccines still work, just not as well as for the original virus for which they were developed.

I’m in jersey. We’re going back to a semi lockdown on jan 4th. Simply because that way we’re expected to shop and go out to pubs and bars before Christmas. No one I know is doing this though. Majority of Christmas dos have been cancelled.

As of 4 jan we’re working from home again. Encouraged to do essential shopping only. And wearing masks in all public places.

But even to the 4 jan we are allowed to go out for 2 hours a day for exercise if we’ve tested positive.

Every two days the government delays cases double - which means hospitalisations and deaths double

This is not true

@AnyFucker

Every two days the government delays cases double - which means hospitalisations and deaths double

This is not true

Which bit do you think is not true? That cases are doubling every two days, or that if hospitalisations/deaths stay at the same % of cases, they will also double?

Or do you mean because the boosters are improving the situation all the time?

If the government think they need a lockdown, they would be better doing it sooner rather than later, and pushing on hard with boosters in the meantime. The government's repeated error is measures later, meaning they are needed for longer.

Cases don't seem to be doubling every 2 days based on the number of positive tests being reported. If they are doubling then they must be asymptomatic cases.

And even if cases are doubling that doesn't mean hospitalisations and deaths also double!

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

I see the government are still playing politics with the decision on covid measures.

Every two days the government delays cases double - which means hospitalisations and deaths double.

That's not how it works in statistics or real life.

And it isn't what is happening now.

It all hinges on hospital admissions for Omnicron and the up to date data.
The isolation period is being looked into as well ( not sure how that's going but if that reduces down it'll help )
But who knows what'll happen ?
It is the uncertainty that doesn't help

@Waxonwaxoff0

Cases don't seem to be doubling every 2 days based on the number of positive tests being reported. If they are doubling then they must be asymptomatic cases.

A large pool of asymptomatic cases doesn't really help, we have always had that - it just leads to the virus more easily reaching the people who are most at risk from it.

The feeling is that many people are not testing now, plus the testing system is slowing down as the pressure on testing rises.

I would be wary of doing your own analysis tbh as things are changing quickly and you only have limited information which is out of date by the time it reaches the general public.

@Skiptheheartsandflowers

And even if cases are doubling that doesn't mean hospitalisations and deaths also double!

Would be interested to hear more about this, your reasons why.

Are you meaning due to age of people, or boosters, or what?

It boggles my mind that thanks to our bloody government dithering while future deaths double the whole country doesn't know what we're doing this weekend.

Do we need all that food delivered on Thursday night or not?

People will have trains booked, dog sitters arranged, air beds to blow up...

And the government won't tell us what's happening.

@ememem84

I’m in jersey. We’re going back to a semi lockdown on jan 4th. Simply because that way we’re expected to shop and go out to pubs and bars before Christmas. No one I know is doing this though. Majority of Christmas dos have been cancelled.

As of 4 jan we’re working from home again. Encouraged to do essential shopping only. And wearing masks in all public places.

But even to the 4 jan we are allowed to go out for 2 hours a day for exercise if we’ve tested positive.

Are schools closer open from the 4th? 😊

@HoardingSamphireSaurus

I phrased that very badly.

How would you put it?

That with the virus still apparently in its accelerated, doubling phase there will be ever more hospitalisations and deaths.

There will be a correlation, but not an equivalence.

Okay so meeting at 2pm today. When will we get an update?