Are we actually at risk of overwhelming the NHS?

[Whathefisgoingon]

Will it be like the news reports coming out of India in 2020?

Genuinely concerned and seething at the anti vax brigade this evening.

Of course we are. It’s inevitable- vaccines will have to become mandatory to avoid future lockdowns

I don’t think it’ll be like India, but I do think things are going to be bad. Staff will be off in droves because they’re ill themselves, so the staff left on the wards will be stretched far too thin for care to be safe.

Yep. Already the ambulance waits were ridiculous. Many doctors have stopped routine surgeries to do jabs. I think they don't want to cause a panic.... but yes .

@AnnieSmithson

Of course we are. It’s inevitable- vaccines will have to become mandatory to avoid future lockdowns

I can’t see that ever happening, I would support a harsher lockdown for the unvaccinated though.

Yes. The sheer numbers predicted to be infected, even if the percentage who need hospitalisation is low, will be enough to overwhelm the system. On a medical chat site I'm on, the current highest scoring predictor for when a lock down will be called is "2 weeks too late". They're already seeing admissions rising in London.

For now anyway.

Yes, but blame years of cuts and underfunding, not antivaxxers. I say that as a fully vaccinated person.

It already 2 weeks ago was very reduced staffing and not really safe locally. I am more scared of getting ill over xmas/needing hospital or a doctor than I am of covid.

No it won’t be, but the criteria for hospital admission will get more and more exacting, as happened in first lockdown although it wasn’t publicly stated. (Discussed on Radio 4’s Any Answers today)
Patients will get transferred to hospitals miles away before that - as has also happened previously.
They’ll use any remaining Nightingales, perhaps other areas, although goodness knows how they’ll staff them.
Even if we locked down firmly tomorrow things would get pretty bad.
But it won’t be like India. Well I hope I’m right….

I don’t think we know! On the first lockdown there were 20,000 people in hospital, second time 40,000 this time 7,000 each time it is too much and overwhelming the nhs but obviously three different figures. No one has ever said how many pacientes with covid can the nhs cope with so it’s difficult to say what is too many!

The NHS is already significantly overwhelmed. A few days ago, a quarter of ambulances were taking over half an hour to discharge their patients. There are repeated accounts of people waiting hours for ambulances. Of people waiting hours to get into A and E. Of people sat in A and E for a day or two to get admitted.

I hear from my hospital colleagues that shift after shift is running with dangerously low staffing levels. Routine medical reviews are being cancelled, which is harming the health of patients. Cancer care is delayed. Transplants can't go ahead. And more people than ever are sat on waiting lists.

Overwhelmed isn't a binary thing. It's a sliding scale. And we're already a good way along it.

Do I think it will get worse? Yes. Do I think patients will die due to lack of resources? Yes. We're already seeing that. Do I think we will end up burning bodies in car parks? No. But I think the next few weeks will be pretty dicey.

Oh the Gov will love this, everyone blaming the anti vaxxers, rather than them, and the bullshit they spew on a regular basis.

The NHS is already totally overwhelmed (I work in it so do have some experience).

Both health and social care are way beyond breaking point and in crisis.
This comes from a total lack of underfunding so that these services just haven't been able to cope with additional pressures that covid has brought.

I actually more worried about the amount of folk that will be isolating and how that will affect the NHS, police, fire, shops, schools, industry, etc etc etc all the people who keep the country going!

Basically pre-covid every year at winter time the NHS was understaffed, not enough beds, ambulances queuing. It was already over the brink.

With covid….lockdowns will be a way of life until it can be clawed back from disaster to just terrible.

This is in no way a criticism of the people who work in the NHS but a reflection of chronic underfunding and a commitment to over delivery (universal free healthcare for every illness is too big a goal).

A big problem is the huge number of staff absent from work as they currently have covid.

We have lots of case studies where a single person has infected 60 or more at a crowded venue with omicron. Thats new.

Now imagine the same in an A and E department.

The hospital capacity therefore drops meaning the threshold at which a hospital is overwhelmed is significantly reduced.

It means we need less patients for saturation point to be achieved.

This is why it very much is a liklihood. Its not a huge increase in cases which will tip the balance into case.

The NHS is on its knees every winter. Bed blockers don't help, neither does the numerous managers that are not needed!

The amount of elderly that are dumped and left on wards over Christmas is diabolical.

@ToughTittyWhompus There is a vaccine available to all that is VERY effective at preventing hospitalisation. Anti vax folk will have blood on their hands.

I have a baby and I am genuinely scared about what will happen if he requires urgent care for anything over the next few months.

Yes - we’ve seen this coming for weeks now in our NHS Board. Everyone up in arms about not being able to see their family over Christmas or having their holidays cancelled had really better hope they don’t need medical or dental care in the coming weeks months.

I’d blame cuts, underfunding, shambolic governments, anti vaxxers and people who think it’s hugely unfair that they’re being asked to limit contact with others/wear masks/distance - but blame won’t make a jot of difference.

My elderly father, over six weeks ago, fell and was experiencing chest pains. I was told to expect to wait for a couple of hours for an ambulance. He’s basically dying now but there have been two attempts to discharge him to rehab and both times were classed as unsafe discharges and he’s boomeranged straight back in.

I’m going to take a wild guess that things are more pressured than that right now and that yes, yes we are in the danger zone but that’s only because the definition of ‘overwhelmed’ appears to have changed significantly this winter. I’d say we’ve been there a while.

Yes.
Health and social care is already at breaking point. We haven't recovered from wave 1! It's not just the COVID numbers, it's the patients whose conditions have deteriorated, it's the patients suffering because routine appointments and surgeries have had to be cancelled. Patients with worsened conditions due to not being able or willing to visit a gp. The usual round of winter illnesses. The usual round of people suffering accidents, Injuries, emergencies.

I completely disagree with antivaxxers and anti mask and restriction people, but let's be absolutely clear. We are in this mess because our gov has wilfully neglected to do anything at the point it was needed.
The govs policies threw care homes under the bus and they barefaced lied about it.
And here we are again, bumbling our way thru the next crisis

Yes.

Loads of staff are sick and lots have left (PTSD/ Burnout/ Brexit).

My big trust cannot muster enough staff to open as many beds as they did in earlier waves. We have reduced capacity for the sickest ICU patients too.

I'm a consultant and am seriously seriously worried about how the hospital will cope.

As an individual clinician I really don't know if I have anything left to give. It has been so difficult to try to recover psychologically from the demands on me since March 2020.

I am not alone in feeling like this. The majority of my medical friends are reporting feeling the same. Most of my friends are frontline so GP/ ED/ ICU/ Anaesthetics/ Acute Medicine these are the teams who have seen the most disruption over the past few years (apologies If I've made a huge omission. I"m tired and worried).

Yes. There was a report stating that England's hospitals were at 94% capacity of beds (81% critical care beds)before Omicron was even on the scene. It won't take much to topple.

I don't blame antivaxers but yes those who think it is a microchip are mad.

I blame under funding and some staff. Some are amazing but some I wouldn't trust with a dog I didn't like.

The problem is by restricting GP access the minor things get worse and add to the hospital pressure. Patients have to go to hospital because it is the only way to be seen. A GP appointment could have dealt with it but getting one is near impossible round by me and even then half the time they don't listen and fob you off. (I speak as a patient who had to speak to 8 GPs to get a referral despite it being clear as day what was wrong).