Are we actually at risk of overwhelming the NHS?

[Whathefisgoingon]

Will it be like the news reports coming out of India in 2020?

Genuinely concerned and seething at the anti vax brigade this evening.

but not taking the vaccine is far more likely to kill or impair you than taking it is.
there is a slight risk from the vaccine, but it is tiny compared with the risk from the virus.
including the disruption to the economy by so many people being off sick or having to isolate, due to contact with infected people.
people are less likely to be infected and therefore able to spread infection, if they are vaccinated.

We were always trying to protect the NHS in an era of no vaccines now there are vaccines the NHS just needs to prioritize who it wants to save

What a ridiculous comment.

If you're going to place 'worthiness' on people's lives then vaccination status is irrelevant. In such an awful make-a-choice type scenario then it would make far more sense for society to choose to save the 30 year old unvaccinated patient with young children than the 85 year old vaccinated one. This fact won't be lost on the powers that be in Government or the NHS.

Personally I feel people who are supportive of the 'make a choice' way of operating should be careful what they wish for. I strongly suspect that if we got to that stage the choices being made wouldn't be the 'save the worthy vaccinated' that you expect.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10323757/Fit-healthy-mother-two-38-dies-Covid.html

this is just one sad example, of the unnecessary risks some people have been confused into taking. there are many more.

@ThickPeopleOnHere do you ever take “potentially lethal” paracetamol, antibiotics, the contraceptive pill, Zantac? I’ve known people die from taking all of those. But strangely nobody is spamming Mumsnet trying to put people off taking them.

I work in a major trauma hospital in the North. I'd say no, not in the sense that the media is suggesting. The major threats at the moment are staff isolation, leading to less qualified HCPs, meaning wards and beds HAVE to close down due to safe staffing levels. At the moment, we are inundated with very sick people, but very sick people waiting too long for treatment for things like heart attacks, infections, high blood pressure going unchecked leading to strokes etc. And at the opposite end, A&E is experiencing a lot of minor stuff too because we are the only port of call for some people right now. Staff morale is low, but it is most winters.Surgeries are cancelling again, but due to the bed situation and staffing I mentioned above. Paediatric services are doing fine so far luckily. I'll admit it all just feels like a bit of a mess right now, and all this talk of us becoming overwhelmed is overwhelming the staff, as opposed to the actual conditions as of tonight.

I should clarify, although I have said that we are busy, maybe not quite as busy as last lockdown yet but busy, less staff doesn't help too. We have more patients per member of staff, but we are not bed blocked (?Yet) We have ICU capacity, not much but there are some spare beds and contingencies to use the theatres and staff as extra HDU ICU care spaces IF we fill up very quickly, we are just about managing. A&E waits are horrendous but once you get up to the wards it feels calmer. But I am a "everything is fine" sort of person, my colleagues may vehemently disagree with everything I just said!

Don't forget NHS staff are people too and they are going off sick in big numbers

Yes.
The NHS is most places was barely functional before covid.
Loads of EU staff left after Brexit vote.
It's been mismanaged financially for years.
Not enough GPS or beds for the population, yet still most areas are building more and more homes.
Outside of specialist hospitals, lack of specialist care. EG, in my area if you need certain treatment its travel to a city 30 miles away because my local general hospital doesn't provide it.
Add a global pandemic to the existing problems is just not really ideal, to put it mildly.

@Motorina

The NHS is already significantly overwhelmed. A few days ago, a quarter of ambulances were taking over half an hour to discharge their patients. There are repeated accounts of people waiting hours for ambulances. Of people waiting hours to get into A and E. Of people sat in A and E for a day or two to get admitted.

I hear from my hospital colleagues that shift after shift is running with dangerously low staffing levels. Routine medical reviews are being cancelled, which is harming the health of patients. Cancer care is delayed. Transplants can't go ahead. And more people than ever are sat on waiting lists.

Overwhelmed isn't a binary thing. It's a sliding scale. And we're already a good way along it.

Do I think it will get worse? Yes. Do I think patients will die due to lack of resources? Yes. We're already seeing that. Do I think we will end up burning bodies in car parks? No. But I think the next few weeks will be pretty dicey.

This!!! We have been overwhelmed for months before winter pressures even set in.

I was in hospital with covid in October despite double vaccinated and also have stage 3 breast cancer, was being tested for stage 4 but think ok. The NHS was totally overwhelmed for both those, cancer is better than covid A&E which was awful, 100% of beds full, short staffed, staff working 13 hour days, was being told I would have long delays before cancer treatment, scary as hell when you are being examined for stage 4, second mass found and you have kids, cant see doctor for a month then saying treatment starts 6 weeks after that so 3 months after diagnosis. I complained and got seen and operation on Friday but very scary. Largely underfunding, not enough beds, not enough staff, delays from covid / lockdown.

If you are unluckily enough to end up in ICU you may require life saving medicial interventions with life long side effects. Would you also decline these if you decline a vax due to a 'risk' of a side effect?

@Silkieschickens

I was in hospital with covid in October despite double vaccinated and also have stage 3 breast cancer, was being tested for stage 4 but think ok. The NHS was totally overwhelmed for both those, cancer is better than covid A&E which was awful, 100% of beds full, short staffed, staff working 13 hour days, was being told I would have long delays before cancer treatment, scary as hell when you are being examined for stage 4, second mass found and you have kids, cant see doctor for a month then saying treatment starts 6 weeks after that so 3 months after diagnosis. I complained and got seen and operation on Friday but very scary. Largely underfunding, not enough beds, not enough staff, delays from covid / lockdown.

Sorry to hear this. My Dh is undergoing cancer treatment and it's worrying that staff may be seconded to deal with covid again.

I can assure you the NHS is already overwhelmed. Just on my way to a shift... it’s not just Covid it’s the pressure it puts in everything else too. We are still dealing with the aftermath of first two waves... cancer diagnosed late, poor management of long term conditions- profound affect on mental health and cancelled ops meaning people are far less well by the time they get it- making recovery and bed occupancy higher. Yes Boris has been an idiot... but NHS and staff are on their knees. I am hugely grateful for job security but today I have 46 patients to care for- usually maximum is 20 ( I work in digital health)

@BitcherOfBlakiven - not our way out, but our best defence. I think it’s really important to dispel that myth of ‘they don’t work/won’t protect against variants’ as people use that as a reason to not get vaccinated.

My understanding is - with some vaccines one vaccination means protection for life, others require boosters - much like the flu vaccine which you get every winter.

@ThickPeopleOnHere the overwhelming consensus of expert medical opinion globally is that the risk of Covid far, far, FAR outweighs the risk of taking the vaccine. This is why the World Health Organisation see vaccination as vital - and are advising governments globally to vaccinate their citizens. However rubbish our government has been - this is not a reason to ignore and reject the global consensus of medical opinion on Covid.

@ThickPeopleOnHere it’s also risky to make judgements based on anecdotal evidence on a social media platform. You need to trust robust, peer reviewed research by medical experts, virologists etc globally.

I’m just wondering if anyone could answer this for me? As a mum of two children - obviously they are my major concern. If one of them did need hospital treatment - or A and E - to what extent would or could they be prioritised? My worry would be that a hospital at full capacity, understaffed - or with staff members off sick themselves - or that the infrastructure supporting the hospital is severely compromised - could it get to a stage that they might not receive the care they need?

Tillyvonpantsalo thanks so sorry to hear your DH has cancer too and yes its quite scary when you have to fight for cancer treatment. It also took 4 months for gp to refer me as overwhelmed and dismissed first time, second time referred and at stage 3.

@Theimpossiblegirl

Yes, but blame years of cuts and underfunding, not antivaxxers. I say that as a fully vaccinated person.

Yes this.

The government want you to hate another regular person rather than look at the politics.

It is usually immigrants who get the blame, currently it is the unvaccinated. I am also vaccinated fwiw.

I think the government need to take a serious look at who is not vaccinated and why. The hardcord anti-vaxxers are a small group - far bigger is the 'I would but I haven't got round to it for ' group. What is the government doing to teach them? Oh, fuck all, as usual.

There are no walk in vaccinations within 40 miles of my house. There is no one to speak to if you have questions or worried.