Are we actually at risk of overwhelming the NHS?

[Whathefisgoingon]

Will it be like the news reports coming out of India in 2020?

Genuinely concerned and seething at the anti vax brigade this evening.

@Xenia

It is overwhelmed every winter.

I would certainly support tax cuts and a right to opt out of the NHS - eg 20% of everyone's income tax bill goes on the NHS. If they let us opt out and not pay that tax that might help. We could also exclude anyone overweight from NHS care and anyone like I am who is unvaccinated.

What are you going to do if you are unfortunate to have a stroke/heart attack/car accident etc? Just sit at home caring for yourself? You may feel immune to all these things but none of us can predict when we need urgent healthcare. Private medical insurance won't save you in these instances.

A CEO of an international logistics company says that the NHS is being allowed to sink further to encourage use of the private sector. The Spire group this year had a n attempted takeover by an Australian healthcare company the shareholders resisted.

Private care is going to be a huge industry it's biggest customer a flailing NHS

A key question is whether the NHS would be able to cope if 100% were vaccinated? If it wouldn't really make a difference then people should get off the backs of the unvaccinated.

But if the assessment is that it would make a difference then serious and unpalatable questions need to be asked.

The cry that "I have the right to be unvaccinated and also to have access to full medical care" becomes hollow if that "right" is the thing that is a significant contributory factor to others effectively losing their rights to full medical care due to a lack of capacity, and others losing their right to earn a living in those industries decimated by restrictions.

@rrhuth

I was never under the impression that vaccine would be the be all and end all - more that it was our best defence which is true.

I also was under the impression that things were likely to get bad again this winter.

I don’t think ‘lied’ is quite the right word. No-one has a crystal ball - no one can predict how the virus will mutate - and I think this has always been the message.

I think learn to live is possibly still correct - it’s about learning. Nothing is set in stone.

@SirChenjins

The NHS is on its knees every winter. Bed blockers don't help, neither does the numerous managers that are not needed

Piss off.

This is actually very true.

How far back do we have to go to see a winter where the NHS wasn't overwhelmed, full to capacity, staffing issues...

I've never seen a good winter in my 13 years in the NHS. It's the worst I've ever seen it in terms of staffing (non Covid related staffing issues that is).

@skintasabint

The NHS is on its knees every winter. Bed blockers don't help, neither does the numerous managers that are not needed!

The amount of elderly that are dumped and left on wards over Christmas is diabolical.

‘Bed blockers’ is a fucking awful term and anyone who works in healthcare and uses it should be pulled up.

These are people who have health and social care needs which are not being met. Just because someone is ‘medically fit’ it doesn’t mean they can or should be discharged. There are so many practical reasons for this but the primary issue with the term ‘bed blocker’ is that it’s dehumanising and puts the blame for inadequate service provision on a scared, vulnerable person.

Doesn't this happen every winter in this country?

@Grida

The biggest problem in my work is the long isolation periods. Staff have to be off for 10 days when they have covid even though only one person has felt ill for longer than 4-5 days and most have only had cold symptoms. We also have staff regularly off while they wait for pcr results and other staff off because their children have to isolate for 10 days. I realise nhs staff can’t work while they are infectious but I don’t see how there ever would be enough staff to keep it functioning with omicron so infectious.

I think the isolation period generally needs overhauling. It's not ideal but there's a risk both ways... For instance, how much of a risk is someone who's asymptomatic after, say, seven days when they're wearing a medical grade mask. I don't know of course, but i'm guessing it's very low. I've read a study that showed that no one expelled live virus after nine days.

[quote Beadebaser]@rrhuth

I was never under the impression that vaccine would be the be all and end all - more that it was our best defence which is true.

I also was under the impression that things were likely to get bad again this winter.

I don’t think ‘lied’ is quite the right word. No-one has a crystal ball - no one can predict how the virus will mutate - and I think this has always been the message.

I think learn to live is possibly still correct - it’s about learning. Nothing is set in stone.[/quote]
Johnson lied. He repeatedly said vaccines were all that was required and removed all other measures.

No one needed a crystal ball to know we had high likelihood of needing caution over winter. Every time it is a gamble with that useless shithead of a PM.

@Xenia

It is overwhelmed every winter.

I would certainly support tax cuts and a right to opt out of the NHS - eg 20% of everyone's income tax bill goes on the NHS. If they let us opt out and not pay that tax that might help. We could also exclude anyone overweight from NHS care and anyone like I am who is unvaccinated.

Do you think an insurance company would pay for your ICU treatment for covid if you are unvaccinated? Have you had many dealings with medical insurance companies? 🤣

I think the problem is that ‘normal’ winter pressures push the nhs to the brink every winter, there’s just no slack in the system and it doesn’t take much to push it over the edge.

@doublemonkey

Doesn't this happen every winter in this country?

No.

It was FAR worse in 20/21 than previous years, although it has got worse since Cameron's cuts starting 2020.

2010, not 2020

Yes he lied. He allowed uncontrolled covid spread within our schools and even without this new variant, the transmission from schools was causing staffing issues in our essential services. It was reckless.

Problem is we get this every year even pre covid. So it is hard to take it seriously. The NHS is always poor in the winter, care has been unsatisfactory and unsafe for years, operations are always cancelled at this time of the year etc.

I am not denying that this year will be worse but it’s a stuck record.

@ineedsun to add to your point it’s my experience that those categorised as ‘bedblockers’ aren’t even necessarily medically fit at the moment. The way we’ve set up our health system means they need a fairly strict amount of medical support that previously would have been provided in the community. For obvious reasons this is also under extreme pressure and not available.

Putting it bluntly, I don’t think excess deaths this year is going to be pretty.

@rrhuth that wasn’t the message I got. I think masks etc were still advised - I continued to wear them over the summer in supermarkets etc. There were passports for music events/evidence of negative test etc. I think people ignored the advice, and there was poor enforcement.

[quote Cornettoninja]@ineedsun to add to your point it’s my experience that those categorised as ‘bedblockers’ aren’t even necessarily medically fit at the moment. The way we’ve set up our health system means they need a fairly strict amount of medical support that previously would have been provided in the community. For obvious reasons this is also under extreme pressure and not available.

Putting it bluntly, I don’t think excess deaths this year is going to be pretty.[/quote]
I totally agree.

There are winter pressures in the NHS every year but the omicron is likely to make this worse because of the potential of NHS staff to be off sick with omicron themselves. However, the NHS is not well run and there are IMO too many managers and poorly resourced/paid support staff roles.

However, as someone who is now limiting their contacts to protect the NHS I am a bit pissed off to see lots of my acquaintances who also work in health not modifying their behaviour eg Xmas parties went ahead 10 days ago when we knew omicron had the potential to overwhelm the NHS, still going out with family to events / restaurants etc.

Anti-vaxxers, and the unvaxxed, are two different things. There are many unvaxxed people who are generally very pro-vax.
I personally think both groups are being conveniently scapegoated on here, and generally in society.
Heart disease, diabetes, and other lifestyle diseases are still far bigger threats to the NHS, and to individuals. I think overall health messaging needs to be more holistic. Also, as others have said, the NHS has been chronically underfunded for many years. The almost relentless attacks on the unvaccinated are starting to feel a bit witch-huntish. It's depressing

@2022HereWeCome

There are winter pressures in the NHS every year but the omicron is likely to make this worse because of the potential of NHS staff to be off sick with omicron themselves. However, the NHS is not well run and there are IMO too many managers and poorly resourced/paid support staff roles.

However, as someone who is now limiting their contacts to protect the NHS I am a bit pissed off to see lots of my acquaintances who also work in health not modifying their behaviour eg Xmas parties went ahead 10 days ago when we knew omicron had the potential to overwhelm the NHS, still going out with family to events / restaurants etc.

So, not only do we expect NHS workers to cope with the current state of play, we are also telling them they arent allowed a life outside of work? They're not androids that walk out of their cubby hole for each shift, and then go back to their charging point when they're done. They're human beings who also need and want a life outside of their jobs

Anyway, that said..........I would be in favour of medical care being along the line of dentistry. So you pay a small, upfront figure. Not the tens of thousands you would in America but say £30 to see a GP, £150 for a hospital stay etc. Clearly I'm no expert but i do wonder if this would remove some of the unnecessary usage these places get? People who could just self care instead of taking a GP appt? Of course, you risk the unwell not going as they cant afford it too so that bothers me. Also I imagine it would be another financial squeeze on middle britain as I'd expect there would be uproar if benefit recipients had to pay. I dont know how to work it, but I do feel it's a conversation worth having.

There will have to be rationing, if there are more critically Ill patients than there are medics to treat them. It will probably be done on the likelyhood of survival, so elderly and people with health conditions will go to the back of the queue.

Discharging patient delays caused by care home, council issues Doncaster hospital say on average 8 beds each day are lost to new patients because of this. Those figures were back in May can't imagine they've improved