Are we actually at risk of overwhelming the NHS?

[Whathefisgoingon]

Will it be like the news reports coming out of India in 2020?

Genuinely concerned and seething at the anti vax brigade this evening.

Hardcord = hardcore
Teach = reach

@Beadebaser

I’m just wondering if anyone could answer this for me? As a mum of two children - obviously they are my major concern. If one of them did need hospital treatment - or A and E - to what extent would or could they be prioritised? My worry would be that a hospital at full capacity, understaffed - or with staff members off sick themselves - or that the infrastructure supporting the hospital is severely compromised - could it get to a stage that they might not receive the care they need?

Bluntly - yes.

That is what the Chief Medical Officer has been telling us since March 2020.

Every year before this the nhs is overwhelmed. Every winter our large city centre trust has negative beds (as in more patients needing to be in than beds available. Worst I remember is -104 beds!). Covid has obviously made that worse but this happened every year. Winter pressures is a ‘normal’ thing (terribly). Obviously covid means a difficult time feels impossible but it’s disingenuous to say ‘omg the hospital has no beds’. Hospitals don’t sit with hundreds of empty beds made up with nurses twiddling their thumbs…ever.
The NHS (as someone who has worked in it for years) is now offering a really poor service, covid aside, for everyone. I’ve heard so many stories of patients waiting for months for diagnostic testing by which time they have deteriorated. Patients treated badly by stressed and underpaid staff. It either needs billions of pounds more funding of we need an overhaul and a hybrid system (like Australia, parts of Europe). It’s not fit for purpose and it drives me mad when people point that out and think that a) you’re slagging off the staff which of course I am not, the nhs runs on staff goodwill or b) the alternative is AMERICA OMG IT COSTS £20000 TO HAVE A BABY WE DONT WANT THAT!
There’s are hundreds of effective functioning systems between the UK and the USA and the nhs is not one of them.

@Beadebaser

I’m just wondering if anyone could answer this for me? As a mum of two children - obviously they are my major concern. If one of them did need hospital treatment - or A and E - to what extent would or could they be prioritised? My worry would be that a hospital at full capacity, understaffed - or with staff members off sick themselves - or that the infrastructure supporting the hospital is severely compromised - could it get to a stage that they might not receive the care they need?

I mean if you take them in for a stubbed toe you might be waiting a while or told to seek more appropriate care, if they do need medical attention then yes they will be seen. I'm not sure what you mean by prioritised, largely children have different wards, different staff than adults, and the numbers are calculated to ensure that both children and adult departments can run- they're not put in a big pot. There are always times especially during winter where services run close to the wind, but usually ignorance is bliss and people just assume if they need to go it'll be fine, which it is.

I'm currently in hospital with teen ds who has suspected appendicitis. Have been here since the early hours of Friday, it's now Sunday morning and he's still in the queue for a scan to confirm they need to operate.
Our wonderful nhs has been destroyed by the tories, don't let them convince you otherwise!!!

@Tillyvonpantsalo

If you are unluckily enough to end up in ICU you may require life saving medicial interventions with life long side effects. Would you also decline these if you decline a vax due to a 'risk' of a side effect?

This is an important point.

When my child was in ICU (not from covid) they had treatments that had high risk of other harms. You say yes, because the alternative is no child at all.

Also covid itself does extremely weird things to the body/organs/brain far more often than the vaccine does, even in 'mild' cases. Why are people more scared of vaccine side effects than covid side effects. Brain fog for example - common after covid, not after the vaccine.

In the summer I waited 3 hours for an ambulance for my mum. When she went to a&e she spent the whole night in the corridor. No one came when she shouted. She couldn't stand and she didn't have a drink. Her treatment remained this way for the next fortnight (with one or two good moments where someone gave her a drink or helped her with the bed pan rather than her wetting herself). She was horribly and terribly treated. And that was August. God knows what it's like now.

But my friend rang and ambulance for her husband while she was doing CPR on him three years ago and was put on hold by 999. No ambulances. So it's not even necessarily something new is it ?

@Theimpossiblegirl

Yes, but blame years of cuts and underfunding, not antivaxxers. I say that as a fully vaccinated person.

This.

The NHS was only ever one crisis away from collapsing for decades.

Now we have the crisis.

We are.

But because of years if u defunding and the selling off to private companies before we even got this pandemic.

They are also using the nhs being overwhelmed by covid to hide the real reasons.

I was quite shocked to see an advert today "need a and e? Call 111 and we can arrange it".

I fear we'll have elderly very complaint people who respect the nhs which has failed them for years calling 111 and waiting in queues for heart attacks and strokes.

The system is broken, the staff are broken and they aren't respected by this government for what they do for the health of this nation.

@4pmwinetimebebeh

Every year before this the nhs is overwhelmed. Every winter our large city centre trust has negative beds (as in more patients needing to be in than beds available. Worst I remember is -104 beds!). Covid has obviously made that worse but this happened every year. Winter pressures is a ‘normal’ thing (terribly). Obviously covid means a difficult time feels impossible but it’s disingenuous to say ‘omg the hospital has no beds’. Hospitals don’t sit with hundreds of empty beds made up with nurses twiddling their thumbs…ever. The NHS (as someone who has worked in it for years) is now offering a really poor service, covid aside, for everyone. I’ve heard so many stories of patients waiting for months for diagnostic testing by which time they have deteriorated. Patients treated badly by stressed and underpaid staff. It either needs billions of pounds more funding of we need an overhaul and a hybrid system (like Australia, parts of Europe). It’s not fit for purpose and it drives me mad when people point that out and think that a) you’re slagging off the staff which of course I am not, the nhs runs on staff goodwill or b) the alternative is AMERICA OMG IT COSTS £20000 TO HAVE A BABY WE DONT WANT THAT! There’s are hundreds of effective functioning systems between the UK and the USA and the nhs is not one of them.

Two things are wrong with this post: 1) ICU bed capacity was cut by Cameron (Tory) - it was a political choice made relatively recently (post 2010) 2) the bed situation in winter 20/21 was FAR worse due to covid 3) UK invests less than other countries - political choice by Tories since 2010 4) We need increased funding not system change

Haha two things then 1-4! It is early

The NHS is on its knees.

My dad has terminal cancer. He had to wait over a month for results. He then had to wait several more weeks before being offered a biopsy. Several more to be offered any treatment. He’s now opted out of all because he was told it’s “too late”.

He’s stopped eating now. He can’t get GP appointments, no one is coming to see him. He only speaks to people on the phone.

His treatment has been diabolical.

This is knock on from Covid and it’s the new NHS.

I completely disagree with antivaxxers and anti mask and restriction people, but let's be absolutely clear. We are in this mess because our gov has wilfully neglected to do anything at the point it was needed.
The govs policies threw care homes under the bus and they barefaced lied about it.
And here we are again, bumbling our way thru the next crisis

This 🥲

There’s are hundreds of effective functioning systems between the UK and the USA and the nhs is not one of them.

Which systems are cheaper?

I'm not sure about this. In early Oct I experienced an acute attack of cholecystitis. In essence I'm still waiting for the ambulance now as it just never arrived. In the end I went to A&E in the car and remained there for 4 days requiring emergency surgery.
There was no Omnicron at that point.
A&E was overwhelmed, the ambulance service was overwhelmed.
The system is just consistently overwhelmed. It's not covid and it's not Omnicron it's just the system overall. From primary health care all the way up.

I forgot to add. An additional pressure I am seeing on the nhs is the result of nursing and AHP students now having to fund their courses.
Add that into the mix too

@Theimpossiblegirl

Yes, but blame years of cuts and underfunding, not antivaxxers. I say that as a fully vaccinated person.

Exactly this!

@Cornettoninja

My elderly father, over six weeks ago, fell and was experiencing chest pains. I was told to expect to wait for a couple of hours for an ambulance. He’s basically dying now but there have been two attempts to discharge him to rehab and both times were classed as unsafe discharges and he’s boomeranged straight back in.

I’m going to take a wild guess that things are more pressured than that right now and that yes, yes we are in the danger zone but that’s only because the definition of ‘overwhelmed’ appears to have changed significantly this winter. I’d say we’ve been there a while.

I think bed blocking is going to be a real issue.

My 90 year old dad had a stroke 2 weeks ago and my mum has quite bad dementia. There is no care available for my mum at the moment and I suspect none for when/if my dad is ready to go home. Social services have said as much. They will be doing an assessment at the end of January! Until then we are struggling through this as best we can.

I've worked in the NHS for 23 years. it is years of tory underinvestment that has left it in this state. Beds have been cut, as well as posts on ward and in te community. People always roll out the old rubbish about 'managers' being overpaid, and a few of them are, but the majority work incredibly hard. What people who don't with in the service don't see is the amount of unpaid overtime that nearly everyone does just to stay on top of their workload. In my department most people have had to absorb workloads from other posts that have been cut and its only the goodwill of staff that keeps it going. I'm on leave for a week now but when I've finished my tea I'll be logging on, and will probably do so every day this week just so I don't spend the whole week worrying what I'm going to come back to. Front line staff on the wards are expected to manage 23 acutely unwell mh patients with only 3 qualified staff per shift, it's horrendously pressured and I dint know how any one does it. I could go on and on but there's no point, people will still keep voting tory and the NHS will be dismantled, covid has just speeded up the process.

@EsmeraldaFudge

I forgot to add. An additional pressure I am seeing on the nhs is the result of nursing and AHP students now having to fund their courses. Add that into the mix too

Yes, this. I was lucky enough to be on one of the last cohorts to get a bursary for an AHP course and I'm bloody glad for it. It's very unlikely I would have considered training should I have come out with thousands of pounds of debt. Sadly, I'm currently a statistic. I'm off with work related stress.

@4pmwinetimebebeh

The NHS runs at around 93% capacity at anyone time, that is a political choice, supported by the public, who prefer lower taxes.

Any reorganisation to whatever system you want does not conjure up more beds/buildings/staff/ or the support in the community to move people who no longer need hospitalisation.

Only extra long term funding does that.

This pandemic started 2 years, Boris has made no effort at all to get more staff in the NHS, remember he promised 40 new hospitals by the end of this Parliament.

None are even in the planning stage, no more students encourage to train and any more nurses recruited from 3rd world countries, easily offset by EU staff who have left, even the 3% pay rise is half the inflation rate, so a 3% pay cut.

To answer @Whathefisgoingon my local AE has a wait time of 13hours this morning, to me that is a non functioning Healthservice.

Download NHSQuicker App to check your AE dept.

@MauveMavis

Yes.

Loads of staff are sick and lots have left (PTSD/ Burnout/ Brexit).

My big trust cannot muster enough staff to open as many beds as they did in earlier waves. We have reduced capacity for the sickest ICU patients too.

I'm a consultant and am seriously seriously worried about how the hospital will cope.

As an individual clinician I really don't know if I have anything left to give. It has been so difficult to try to recover psychologically from the demands on me since March 2020.

I am not alone in feeling like this. The majority of my medical friends are reporting feeling the same. Most of my friends are frontline so GP/ ED/ ICU/ Anaesthetics/ Acute Medicine these are the teams who have seen the most disruption over the past few years (apologies If I've made a huge omission. I"m tired and worried).

@MauveMavis is there anything we as the public can practically do to support our NHS workers right now?

Apart from getting fully vaccinated, of course.

I took a big box of cakes to the surgery when they were doing weekend vaccinations (they seemed pleased) but it seems like a teeny drop in the ocean.

By the way agree with PP re. Chronic underfunding, but we are here in this shit situation right now and as a human I'd like to do what I can to support those who are giving so much.

We cannot fund the NHS at the level it needs for its current ‘mission’ indefinitely. As a society we need to have some difficult conversations about what ‘saving a life’ means and the quality of that life. Until we do this we will have the same conversation over and over again, covid or no covid. We seem to have forgotten that death is part of life. Prolonging a life just because we can, and I say that about all ages, from very premature babies to the very elderly, is not always the right thing.

Oh stop with the anti-vax brigade!!

Hospitals are short staffed because they are catching covid! So yes overwhelmed - but not all hospitals are overwhelmed with vaccinated and non-vax covid patients right now.