Massive turn in opinion…

[Normando91]

Is it just me or has opinion on a possible lockdown or circuit breaker in the coming days or week completely changed in the past 24 hours?

I hadn’t looked at Sky News in the last 2 days as it all just seemed speculation and bleak but having looked tonight it looks inevitable that we’re going to face some kind of stricter restrictions, most likely after Christmas, but possibly before.

Everyone I’ve spoke to has gone from, no we will not go into lockdown (or further restrictions) to yeah, it’s coming.

Who would have thought we’d be back here a year later from lasts Christmases shit show.

@Choux

We have clear evidence now that vaccinated people can catch and transmit the virus in large numbers so why are we all pretending they are still somehow miraculously safe to be around?

I don't think anyone is miraculously safe to be around. But unvaccinated people need to be kept out of large crowds and busy public places because if the catch covid they are 3.5 times more likely than a vaccinated person to end up in hospital.

Large crowds with no social distancing are exactly what Covid transmission loves. To reduce the likelihood of a super spreader event which impacts local health services the unvaccinated need to be kept out.

This.

The mitigations are just that. They're no miracle. But they do make a difference. There's a reason why we're doing worse in the UK than most of the rest of the world.

And whilst the vaccinated can still spread, they are less likely to than the unvaccinated.

Also the unvaccinated are much more likely to take up hospital beds.

news.sky.com/video/covid-19-unvaccinated-must-really-think-about-the-damage-they-are-doing-javid-12499695

Health Secretary Sajid Javid says nine out of 10 of the most sick people in hospitals are unvaccinated.

For those posters concerned about the economic costs of lockdown, the economic costs of doing nothing will be much worse and the government know this. Furlough will be reintroduced for hospitality and other businesses that can’t operate
It goes for beyond being concerned for the economy, if you're one of the 3 million self employed the government didn't give a penny in support to last time.

I haven't even managed to crawl out of the financial black hole from the last lockdown, and now I'm potentially expected to suck it up again.

I'm sure all those receiving their steady income this whole pandemic, tucked up WFH, don't have a clue about how hard it is for those who can't earn any money and can't afford to pay bills etc. Who knows, maybe this time I'll finally lose the roof over my head.

@Choux

We have clear evidence now that vaccinated people can catch and transmit the virus in large numbers so why are we all pretending they are still somehow miraculously safe to be around?

I don't think anyone is miraculously safe to be around. But unvaccinated people need to be kept out of large crowds and busy public places because if the catch covid they are 3.5 times more likely than a vaccinated person to end up in hospital.

Large crowds with no social distancing are exactly what Covid transmission loves. To reduce the likelihood of a super spreader event which impacts local health services the unvaccinated need to be kept out.

Don't be so silly please! If someone is morbidly obese and over 65 then they will be far more likely to end up in hospital with Covid (regardless of how many jabs they have) in comparision to a fit and healthy 18 year old. Therefore, if we follow your theory, the people we should be banning from public are the elderly, overweight or anyone with health issues. Not something I'd personally advocate but then I'm not somebody who agrees with discrimination.

because when you look at the way rates have recently shot up in countries that do follow these rules it is easy to see that they have little to no effect

Except that they have had effect. Their rates are lower than ours.

Most of Europe is in a better position than us, but for really good examples of successful mitigations including vaccine passes, look to East Asia and some of the Arab countries.

The majority of admissions are among the vaccinated - currently 65%

That's because the majority of the adult population are vaccinated. Proportionally the hospitalised unvaccinated make up a much higher number than the vaccinated.

What really shocks me with these threads is people who come on to say they are refusing to change arrangements made to see elderly parents they haven't seen since 2019.

Now I know most people weren't allowed meet ups last Christmas but unless these parents are living in a country where travel has been severely restricted - why on earth have people not visited their parents during the summer- either this year or last?

@nojudgementhere do you mean this full fact report which also says:

"However, there are population factors at play here that could impact the figures in the way the Exposé describes; for example, age.
Vaccine uptake has been highest in older age groups and lowest in younger age groups.
Young people are also far less likely to have a severe illness or die from Covid-19 than older people.
So that might explain why a relatively high number of cases but low number of deaths are among unvaccinated individuals. Lots of young, unvaccinated people are being infected but not dying. This may mean the numbers look different when examining the overall populations rather than the individual risks and benefits."
fullfact.org/health/expose-scotland-vaccinations/

Younger unvaccinated people may not die but they can each take up days if not weeks of hospital capacity. If you focus only on death stats you get no picture of how much covid is eating up finite hospital capacity.

Of course all the countries that took good mitigation measures not only have lower death rates and better functioning healthcare. They also have healthier economies. Wishing a contagious disease away won't make it go away. Proactive sensible infection control measures on the other hand help limit the damage.

@nojudgementhere you are right we can't discriminate against age or health/ disability as these are things people for the most part can't change. But you can control your vaccination status and therefore it's not discrimination and people have a choice. Although at the moment i think you can take a Covid test to gain entry.

Age is the biggest risk factor re Covid but young healthy people are not guaranteed to not get severe Covid / die:
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-mother-warns-coronavirus-can-happen-to-anybody-after-teenage-daughter-dies-on-day-she-was-to-get-vaccine-12424310

You can also choose to live off grid and set up your own 'Freedom' unvaccinated societies.

@canary1

It seems this is driven by the unvaccinated who are making up the majority of admissions. They should be restricted, if they choose to not have the jab. The rest of society should suffer because of their choices

This may be the situation at the moment but I think the concern with Omicron is that to get worthwhile protection from the vaccinations you also need to have had the booster 2-3 weeks ago. Considering that my DH who is 60 was only called to have his a couple of weeks back, there will be a huge percentage of people either not triple vaccinated. I know they have now opened booking and/ or walk ins to everyone over 18, but availability is variable and it takes two weeks for benefit to kick in .

@Tealightsandd - I think you have quite a simplistic view of things. You only need to look at how at one point Israel had the highest Covid rates in the world despite having the most vaccinated population and the way Covid rates surged in parts of America like California despite their extremely strict adherence to NPIs to see that unfortunately our attempts to control this virus are pretty haphazard to say the least. I think we can agree that locking down the country will not make the virus disappear. It will however cause huge damage to the economy and to people's mental wellbeing and so I will not be supporting it.

[quote Choux]@nojudgementhere you are right we can't discriminate against age or health/ disability as these are things people for the most part can't change. But you can control your vaccination status and therefore it's not discrimination and people have a choice. Although at the moment i think you can take a Covid test to gain entry.

Age is the biggest risk factor re Covid but young healthy people are not guaranteed to not get severe Covid / die:
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-mother-warns-coronavirus-can-happen-to-anybody-after-teenage-daughter-dies-on-day-she-was-to-get-vaccine-12424310[/quote]
Not true. One of the biggest drains on the health service and one of the biggest risk factors for dying of Covid is obesity and this could in many cases be changed by a eating a healthy diet and exercising more. The only reason people push for vaccine passports is to try and coerce people into getting vaccinated. There is no other logical reason for them.

The story you have chosen to include in your post was featured on the news because it was such an incredibly rare and tragic occurence. The average age of death is still 80+ despite vaccines as far as I'm aware?

Israel is not the most vaccinated country. It's not even in the top 10. I don't know why you keep saying that. It was at the very beginning of vaccine rollouts. Things have moved on quite a bit since then.

UAE has the highest take-up rates.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html

@Tealightsandd

Of course all the countries that took good mitigation measures not only have lower death rates and better functioning healthcare. They also have healthier economies. Wishing a contagious disease away won't make it go away. Proactive sensible infection control measures on the other hand help limit the damage.

I take it you either don't work and rely on a good pension, benefits or can work from home. Because these are the people that are chomping at the bit for another lockdown.

Mean while those of us that own our businesses that rely on people leaving their homes can all go to hell..

one of the biggest risk factors for dying of Covid is obesity and this could in many cases be changed by a eating a healthy diet and exercising more.

You talk of simplistic view, and of mental health...

1. Over 50% of the UK population is overweight.

1. It takes time to lose weight. The virus won't wait.

1. Some people are overweight due to poor mental health (including sometimes effects of their medication).

1. Some people are overweight because of physical health conditions and/or reduced mobility. Waiting on long lists for operations and/or in too much pain to do much excercise.

1. Poverty. Lack of cooking or storage facilities, particularly for the growing number impacted by the public health housing and homelessness emergency.

1. Linked to 5. Food banks - mainly beige carbs and processed foods and definitely not a varied diet (variety is healthiest). Cheaper shops inaccessible. Too far away, too expensive to get to due to mobility issues or poor and/or expensive public transport.

And - just the relentless grinding misery of poverty, when there's a need for comfort food - something stodgy and not necessarily healthy but a small treat amongst all the shit.

It's no coincidence that obesity rates have gone up since the decline in smoking.

take it you either don't work and rely on a good pension, benefits or can work from home. Because these are the people that are chomping at the bit for another lockdown.

I don't know why some people seem to prefer lockdown to mitigation measures? I suspect most don't. It's more a case of head in sand wishing it awayitis.

Me? I'd always opt for mitigating as a first choice over lockdown. Those of us with family and friends abroad know that sensible proactive infection control mitigation lowers the risks all round. Risk of death, risk of collapsed healthcare system, risk of lost livelihood due to disabling Long Covid - and risk of long and/or more repeated lockdowns.

I would have followed the East. Pandemic border control (with real quarantine for genuinely essential travel), masks (worn properly, good ventilation, vaccine passes.

All the countries that took better mitigation measures have healthier economies (eg. less damaged businesses).

But we didn't. There's nothing we can do without a time machine.

All we can do is get through as best we can the coming months.

Longer term, there will be wider availability of the currently globally short supply drug treatments - the anti virals and the monoclonal antibodies. There'll be more of the world vaccinated. And there'll be more knowledge and understanding about this still new possibly escaped from a lab disease. There is light at the end of the tunnel. It's just unfortunately a long tunnel. How long, is to some extent, up to us.

@Tealightsandd

take it you either don't work and rely on a good pension, benefits or can work from home. Because these are the people that are chomping at the bit for another lockdown.

I don't know why some people seem to prefer lockdown to mitigation measures? I suspect most don't. It's more a case of head in sand wishing it awayitis.

Me? I'd always opt for mitigating as a first choice over lockdown. Those of us with family and friends abroad know that sensible proactive infection control mitigation lowers the risks all round. Risk of death, risk of collapsed healthcare system, risk of lost livelihood due to disabling Long Covid - and risk of long and/or more repeated lockdowns.

I would have followed the East. Pandemic border control (with real quarantine for genuinely essential travel), masks (worn properly, good ventilation, vaccine passes.

All the countries that took better mitigation measures have healthier economies (eg. less damaged businesses).

Yeah you didnt answer the question there @Tealightsandd

What is it ? Pension, benefits or work from home or husband that pays the bills?

Why does it have to be any of those @motheroflions?

You surely can't be implying that unless there was something in for you, you wouldn't do anything to help! It almost seems as if you are saying that you would want paying before you did anything for your neighbour, for your society.

As you seem incredulous at the fact that @Tealightsandd wouldn't do anything to help unless she fitted into one of your narrow margins, I assume you have taken a sack out of your own pack and applied it to her.

Sometimes, although increasingly less, so some people do the right thing just because it is the right thing to do. You may not know any but outside of your circle, they do exist.

It may be that you are in the majority camp. I think in fact you may be in society's race to the bottom but your example is not to be emulated.

Anyway, I am sure Boris and the Tory party are very glad of your support for them.

@TameDucksAtChatsworth

Why does it have to be any of those *@motheroflions*?

You surely can't be implying that unless there was something in for you, you wouldn't do anything to help! It almost seems as if you are saying that you would want paying before you did anything for your neighbour, for your society.

As you seem incredulous at the fact that @Tealightsandd wouldn't do anything to help unless she fitted into one of your narrow margins, I assume you have taken a sack out of your own pack and applied it to her.

Sometimes, although increasingly less, so some people do the right thing just because it is the right thing to do. You may not know any but outside of your circle, they do exist.

It may be that you are in the majority camp. I think in fact you may be in society's race to the bottom but your example is not to be emulated.

Anyway, I am sure Boris and the Tory party are very glad of your support for them.

I am not incredulous over anything. I also don't vote Tory so no idea why you have put that in.

But yes its always those people that are shouting the loudest about restrictions or lockdowns. And it really does come from a place of 'I'm alright Jack' - 'doing the right thing'.

Doing the 'right thing' is easy when you are financially secure. It becomes an issue when your cash flow stops, you're about lose your home, cant put the heating on or feed your kids.

Tbh i am getting sick of the sanctimonious preaching from people that have no real idea of the effect its having on people that need work or people that have their own businesses.

On a side note - where do you fit in with that group? Pension, benefits, husband that brings the cash in or work from home?

If you go to Tescos - will you still expect some one to serve you?

Heavens above, @motheroflions, you are becoming unnecessarily aggressive.

Do you plan on asking everyone who supports some extra sanctions what their financial position is? Do you think that is the only thing that motivates people on this issue?

No, I didn't say you voted Tory, I implied that you supported them or at least Boris et al. That is simply because you share the same position as them-you are both ignoring the science and what most other countries are doing in the name of self interest. You both want the same thing and you are both motivated by self interest.

I am unsure about your non-sequitur concerning Tesco.

However, my point is that if we don't follow the unelected scientists and impose some further sanctions-many countries have done or are in the process of doing this- then no, I don't think there will be anyone in Tesco to serve us. I think the infra structure of society will be in danger.

That is why the scientists are asking the government to protect the infra structure of this country but they, like you, are motivated by self interest.

Except that I've consistently called for mitigation measures that reduce the need for lockdowns. The very opposite of a 'lockdown lover'.

Thank you @TameDucksAtChatsworth

Your posts explain things well.

Some of the bigger mega supermarkets have self scanners , you still need a person to sign off some things at the tills, but mostly you can swan out without having any interaction with anyone. They may have trouble with staff being off , but these little machines must come in handy if they are very short staffed.
It's a shame staff shortages due to covid are not so easy to solve in the NHS :(

The thing I'm struggling with is understanding how or whether this will ever end. I can't bear the thought that my young adult children will have their lives constrained in this way forever. Afterall, what ends this now??