www.thetimes.co.uk/article/two-week-omicron-circuit-breaker-would-ban-meetings-indoors-pdg0bntjt
Two-week Omicron circuit breaker would ban meetings indoors
Boris Johnson is reluctant to toughen restrictions and has insisted that he is not “closing things down”
Boris Johnson is reluctant to toughen restrictions and has insisted that he is not “closing things down”
ZUMAPRESS.COM/THE MEGA AGENCY
Meeting other people indoors would be banned for two weeks after Christmas under plans being drawn up for a “circuit breaker” to slow Omicron.
Ministers are due imminently to present proposals under which England would return to restrictions last seen in April after models suggested that this could halve a peak of hospital admissions that might otherwise break the NHS. However, Boris Johnson has not yet approved the plans and insisted yesterday that he was not “closing things down”.
More measures before Christmas have not been ruled out but Johnson is reluctant to toughen restrictions after the rebellion against plan B this week by 100 of his MPs and the North Shropshire by-election defeat.
Sources played down the chance of announcements in the coming days, with key scientific advisers waiting for firmer data on the risks of Omicron.
Johnson also wants to assess the impact of measures imposed over the past week and is understood to believe that with towns and cities emptying as people become more cautious, there may be no need to tighten rules further.
Government scientists are becoming increasingly gloomy about the outlook without fresh restrictions as 93,045 cases were reported yesterday, the third record day in a row.
Scotland and Wales are re-imposing some social distancing and Johnson spoke to Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford, the respective first ministers, to acknowledge “economic disruption” as people stay at home to avoid infection.
He will hold a Cobra meeting with the devolved administrations this weekend to try to finalise support for the hospitality industry across the UK.
Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, returned from California yesterday to work on the package, with extra help expected to be announced in the coming days.
Officials are now going further, however, and preparing draft regulations that would re-impose “Step 2” of the spring road map out of last winter’s lockdown. This would see indoor mixing banned except for work purposes and pubs and restaurants limited to table service outdoors.
Schools and shops would remain open and there would be no formal “stay at home” order but friends and families would only be able to see each other in groups of six outdoors. Shielding for the most vulnerable would return and weddings and funerals would be limited to 15 to 30 people.
Senior health figures have been persuaded of the need for action after modelling estimated that on current trends daily hospital admissions would peak in January at 3,000 to 10,000. Currently they are about 900 a day. Admissions peaked at 4,000 a day in England last year, pushing hospitals to the brink. However, the SPi-M modellers estimated that a short period of measures similar to Step 2 could mean a peak of between 1,500 and 5,000 a day.
Ministers have yet to formally consider the plans. But some sources said planning was under way to recall parliament next week to debate the restrictions, suggesting that they could be implemented from December 27 or 28.
Scientists warn that waiting too long risks having to move to tougher restrictions. Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said that data on severity would be available next week, insisting: “Time is of the essence. I think if we are going to make additional decisions . . . they probably will need to be made in the next week or two to have a substantial impact.”
Johnson insisted that the government was focusing on booster jabs “to avert some of the more damaging consequences of Omicron”. He said that people should be “prudent” and consider their “budget of risk” when meeting others, as “there is a big wave of Omicron coming through”.
Act now or wait and hope you will not need to? That is the dilemma within government as a wave of Omicron breaks across the country this Christmas (Chris Smyth writes).
A debate is playing out among officials and scientists in Whitehall, with ministers preoccupied by political turmoil. But soon the government has to choose.
Some of the government’s scientific advisers believe it makes clear sense to act now, to impose measures that are “stringent” but fall short of a lockdown in order to ensure that hospitals are not overwhelmed in the new year.
Others feel they cannot unequivocally advise ministers to act. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, pointed out that until we know how well vaccination protects against hospital admission for Omicron, it is hard to know what to do. The first data on this, and the true severity of the variant, is only expected after Christmas.
Boris Johnson appears to be heading for the second approach. Officials planning for a “circuit breaker” set of restrictions are trying to suggest a middle ground which allows the government to wait and then divide the epidemic into two more manageable waves. But Johnson has rejected such proposals before.
The risk is that the data is bad and, having left it late, Johnson has few options other than a full and protracted lockdown.