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A 2-week 'circuit breaker' could be coming after Christmas

834 replies

dancingstars · 18/12/2021 00:31

Reported by The Times and The Guardian which means another NYE stuck indoors...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
13
Thewiseoneincognito · 18/12/2021 11:56

I see some on here are still desperately clinging on to their ‘everything’s going to be just fine, ignore it, mild, carry on, nothing to see here’ mantras.

I agree with those who said the government aren’t responsible for this new variant BUT they are responsible for the piss poor management of our Delta wave, let’s get the winter surge over with in the autumn, irreversible unlocking and no face masks…

In my opinion a two week circuit breaker won’t be enough and will come too late and need to be extended well beyond 14 days. Potential mass sickness in food production, services, utilities, schools, NHS, policing and transport could be hugely problematic and the fallout last for months. Long Covid from millions of infected could theoretically drag this out even further, exasperating disruption in the workplace.

Once this wave is over we must seriously take a look at how we move on as a country to ensure future waves are properly managed from the very beginning to avoid another repeat clusterfuck like we’re about to experience, instead of acting shocked and surprised when it does more or less the same as it did the last wave.

Omicron could be a recurring problem, especially as it’s capable of bypassing previous immunity, let’s hope it can't reinfect it’s infected as easily or spawn an even worse variant.

ChristmasTreeBee · 18/12/2021 11:58

I will be royally pissed off if I’m shoved into another lockdown & the kids school closes not that it will matter as I’m a bloody key worker anyway

I’m getting a bit fed up of the Nhs can’t cope - the nhs as been consistently underfunded by the government for years not just the pissing tories

Bojo has fucked this up from the start, and in all honesty I doubt labour would have done any better…

Just sick to bloody death of it all now.

Mindareno · 18/12/2021 12:01

chickenrun

Could you answer this so we can frame what we are discussing:

“just to be clear, your contention is that the unvaccinated make no difference to the pressure on hospitals?“

Full fact say here there is evidence that the majority in ICU beds are unvaccinated:

fullfact.org/health/dr-hilary-lorraine-kelly-90-percent/

And they also say being vaccinated reduces your chances of being hospitalised significantly.

Not to mention the many news articles that come up from hospitals treating covid patients at the moment if you search for it.

Children don't skew the data, because they're included in the overall population number, as are the number of hospital patients - so they are both relative figures. You take the numbers as a whole, rather than chopping them up into groups. The entire population of the country, versus the entire number of people in the hospitals - that way it makes it equal

No because children are not admitted to hospital for covid at anything like the same rate as adults. If you say they are as against an entire pandemic of being told they’re at significantly less risk from covid, cite your data.

89% of over 12s are vaccinated.

Full fact say vaccines reduce your risk of being admitted to hospital for covid.

The unvaccinated are making this pandemic worse than it would be. It could not be clearer.

CarpeVitam · 18/12/2021 12:02

"I gave up seeing my son who lives in Germany for Christmas as we were to drive through France. I have only seen him once after 2 years of COVID restrictions. I also have friends and family who are Drs and nurses. One who works in a COVID ward. They are who I think about when I decided to cancel my Christmas . Not your selfish thoughts of your New Years Eve being cancelled. It is our hospitals and their staff that will suffer from overcrowding with this new variant. Quit being selfish."

Well said @Danja2010!

Emilyontmoor · 18/12/2021 12:08

Marsha I don’t know when it will peek but I don’t see any evidence that it will be in a week or even two. At current rates it will take at least a week to reach the 1000 per 100k figure that London boroughs were seeing this time last year and being more virulent it will likely exceed that. There are over 9 million people in London and as of Wednesday 19k cases, probably many more now. 1.5m Londoners were infected when the first wave went unchecked prior to the lockdown in March 2020. We have some protection from vaccines now of course (though rates are lowest in London and roughly 3m are not). The virus still has a lot of people left to infect

Chickenrun771 · 18/12/2021 12:12

@Mindareno

chickenrun

Could you answer this so we can frame what we are discussing:

“just to be clear, your contention is that the unvaccinated make no difference to the pressure on hospitals?“

Full fact say here there is evidence that the majority in ICU beds are unvaccinated:

fullfact.org/health/dr-hilary-lorraine-kelly-90-percent/

And they also say being vaccinated reduces your chances of being hospitalised significantly.

Not to mention the many news articles that come up from hospitals treating covid patients at the moment if you search for it.

Children don't skew the data, because they're included in the overall population number, as are the number of hospital patients - so they are both relative figures. You take the numbers as a whole, rather than chopping them up into groups. The entire population of the country, versus the entire number of people in the hospitals - that way it makes it equal

No because children are not admitted to hospital for covid at anything like the same rate as adults. If you say they are as against an entire pandemic of being told they’re at significantly less risk from covid, cite your data.

89% of over 12s are vaccinated.

Full fact say vaccines reduce your risk of being admitted to hospital for covid.

The unvaccinated are making this pandemic worse than it would be. It could not be clearer.

  1. I really like that you linked to that fullfact, because it demonstrates the level of misinformation being spread. Don't you think it's interesting that in that post it cites various papers and on screen doctors who have lied on the figure of 90% unvax-d when that was then later debunked by the actual data?

  2. Fullfact state there is 'some evidence' of a majority of unvax'd in ICU, but where is the data? We need actual numbers, not vague statements, whereas we have the actual data on hospital covid cases with regards to status.

  3. My contention is multifaceted. Yes, I believe the figures speak for themselves on the impact the vaccine is having within hospital settings, if so many are unwell who are vaccinated. I also find it strange that many double vaccinated are still falling ill and dying, like Dr Ifam Halim who by all accounts seems to have been a happy, healthy family man and was double vax'd. He's not an isolated case either. Why are they still dying and becoming so unwell?

I'll quote another Fullfact piece on covid deaths:

The most recent report from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) was published week commencing 25 October. Looking at Covid-19 deaths, it shows that currently more vaccinated than unvaccinated people are dying with the disease in England. (October)

"For example, in the over 80s, there were 1,209 reported deaths in fully vaccinated people, compared to 143 deaths in unvaccinated people and 40 deaths of partially vaccinated people, in data covering the period from 23rd September to 24 October."

They're odds I'll take, personally.

You say about children not being admitted to ICU which is true they do much better than adults, but none the less if we look at the population as a whole, in comparison to the population in hospital regardless of vax status it IS very, very similar. If that doesn't raise an eyebrow, nothing will.

Anyway I've shared the insight I've got, anyone who is beginning to question will read and investigate and for that I'm glad and have done my bit.

Good luck people, let those who want to stay sleeping, sleep.

MrsArchchancellorRidcully · 18/12/2021 12:14

@Pixxie7

Something has to be done,my granddaughter has just caught Covid despite being vaccinated fortunately she is fine, but it does make you you wonder just how much efficacy the vaccines have.
Shows you exactly why vaccines work. She has it mildly probably because of the vaccine. Without it, who knows.......
MrsCremuel · 18/12/2021 12:15

It’s feels inevitable but I’m gutted. Have plans to drive 5 hours to see MIL and introduce her to our new baby. She has severe GAD and so can’t come to us and is now likely to be alone for Christmas. Again.

Not looking forward to January with a toddler and new born, isolated from friends and family again.

Suppose this is life now for many years.

the80sweregreat · 18/12/2021 12:15

Virologist Dr Lawrence Young was on bbc news just now and he sounded bleak about the figures who catch this variant between now and Christmas.
It is hard to know who to believe or how it'll pan out. The hospitals are the key and they always struggle every year anyway of course.
They seem to hoping the boosters work and hospital admissions stay low .
The 24/7 booster clinics etc seem to be going well according to the news

Gwenhwyfar · 18/12/2021 12:15

@WonderfulYou

A circuit breaker is fine, I think most people would be ok with that but the issue would be if it lasted longer than the 2 weeks which it probably would.
Absolutely not fine for me as I have already booked my ticket to visit the UK. Why can't they at least give people some notice?
jassixa · 18/12/2021 12:16

What will happen to hotels and restaurants that have tons of bookings for NYE, for dinners, dances, parties and for overnight stays?

peridito · 18/12/2021 12:16

@Mindareno
89% of over 12s are vaccinated where is this figure from ?

My understanding is that just over 89% have had ONE shot .
81% have had two shots.
45.8% Booster/3rd shot .

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

Gwenhwyfar · 18/12/2021 12:16

"Shows you exactly why vaccines work. She has it mildly probably because of the vaccine. Without it, who knows......."

The vaccines don't do much against Omicron unless you've just had it.

MrsArchchancellorRidcully · 18/12/2021 12:16

@Mindareno

chickenrun

Could you answer this so we can frame what we are discussing:

“just to be clear, your contention is that the unvaccinated make no difference to the pressure on hospitals?“

Full fact say here there is evidence that the majority in ICU beds are unvaccinated:

fullfact.org/health/dr-hilary-lorraine-kelly-90-percent/

And they also say being vaccinated reduces your chances of being hospitalised significantly.

Not to mention the many news articles that come up from hospitals treating covid patients at the moment if you search for it.

Children don't skew the data, because they're included in the overall population number, as are the number of hospital patients - so they are both relative figures. You take the numbers as a whole, rather than chopping them up into groups. The entire population of the country, versus the entire number of people in the hospitals - that way it makes it equal

No because children are not admitted to hospital for covid at anything like the same rate as adults. If you say they are as against an entire pandemic of being told they’re at significantly less risk from covid, cite your data.

89% of over 12s are vaccinated.

Full fact say vaccines reduce your risk of being admitted to hospital for covid.

The unvaccinated are making this pandemic worse than it would be. It could not be clearer.

Err only 50% of 12-15 year olds are vaccinated
A 2-week 'circuit breaker' could be coming after Christmas
nojudgementhere · 18/12/2021 12:18

Thanks @Chickenrun771 - I've enjoyed reading your posts today - you talk alot of sense!

Viviennemary · 18/12/2021 12:18

Fingers in ears la la la. What a fiasco.

peridito · 18/12/2021 12:18

And on the subject of rebellion in Parliament ....who is going to want to take over from BJ at this point ? Won't he be left to carry the can ?

theDudesmummy · 18/12/2021 12:22

When you say what will happen to restaurants etc that have parties booked...well in Ireland they all have an 8pm curfew from Monday, so all those things are cancelled...

Bettyboopawoop · 18/12/2021 12:26

To the people that are talking about vaccinations, Africa has a low vaccine rate so why have they done so well?

AlecTrevelyan006 · 18/12/2021 12:26

What exactly is the point of another lockdown/circuit breaker?

What would it be trying to achieve?

And what would be the reasons for ending it?

herecomesthsun · 18/12/2021 12:28

There certainly are 90% or more unvaccinated people in some ICUs and also for some sort of intensive ventilation therapy

So it is not "lies" but scientific/ medical detail that is hard to reproduce and explain in popular newspaper articles.

The take home idea is sound that, proportionately, unvaccinated people are hugely more likely to be hospitalised, end up in ICU and die.

We do everyone a disservice by not making that clear.

FinallyHere · 18/12/2021 12:29

@Bunnyfuller

Cheese and wine after work meetings ok tho? Asking for a friend…
😁
VikingOnTheFridge · 18/12/2021 12:30

@peridito

And on the subject of rebellion in Parliament ....who is going to want to take over from BJ at this point ? Won't he be left to carry the can ?
There's never a shortage of applicants to be PM, even when it's a poisoned chalice. The quality is another thing altogether, of course.
herecomesthsun · 18/12/2021 12:32

@Bettyboopawoop

To the people that are talking about vaccinations, Africa has a low vaccine rate so why have they done so well?
young population

people with complicated medical conditions are less likely to have survived, so less vulnerable in that way

some populations in Africa have less obesity (not all)

weather that doesn't suit the virus

some immunity through past infection, in the mix

also, UK schools were found to be less compliant with WHO advice re mitigations such as ventilation etc than African ones (I was surprised, but can sort of see how)

Emilyontmoor · 18/12/2021 12:35

jassixa In London many theatres and restaurants are already closing as a result of staff sickness and cancellations. It is a false dichotomy to equate lockdowns with economic damage. Uncontrolled or poorly viruses also do economic damage. One of my favourite restaurants have just closed both their branches (which usually have huge queues) because plan b has decimated footfall on top of rising food prices, supply issues, staff shortages, and now sickness, and the impact of the situation on the mental health of the staff they do have.