This rumour was starting to do the rounds late yesterday, with it first circulating a day or two before on twitter before the Times picked it up. I had heard it before it hit the press. I do believe its well sourced and that the other papers aren't 'just copying the Times' as it has been suggested upthread.
Two-week circuit breakers, though, have already proved useless in Wales and elsewhere
I think any lockdown wouldn't do a lot against omicron if im honest. So I agree generally.
BUT
We have a huge number of cases and there is no way that people will give up Christmas. So Christmas day and Boxing day are going to be massive transmission days between generations.
What you really don't want a week after that is people having more massive parties. Its not going to bring cases numbers down. I don't think thats the hope though this time tbh. The hope is merely to stop the R getting bigger due to New Year socialising patterns, and if it slows it down a little its a bonus.
I will stress that again: the purpose is to stop an already high R rare further increasing over New Year, rather than reducing cases. We will be lucky if it reduces the R significantly at all. And it won't reduce it below 1. I'm pretty sure the scientists are aware of this.
Keep in mind the booster program here. We have a lot of people - particularly young people who wont have been able to get theirs yet. And it takes at least a week to kick in. And if you get infected it means you don't get boosted and instead add to the January problem. This is about helping the booster program. If you want a three word slogan: Protect The Boosters'
The government need to get these two key messages across.
So i do think there is merit in restrictions from the 27th. This isn't a lock down or a firebreak though. Its being sold as that to the media but its actually much more like Tier 2 Restrictions from last year. (Pubs shut at tier3).
We were in tier 2 for a lot time and the effect was worse for pubs and restaurants than those in tier 3 because they didn't have financial support.
I think the Welsh Government announcement that night clubs will close on the 27th (but only nightclubs) is a big clue that this definitely will happen and i suspect nightclubs will also close elsewhere too.
I don't think this will reduce cases so it is going to be deeply controversial. It will only stop it accelerating.
Its also going to cause a political shit storm. Johnson has been put on notice by his own party that if he attempted anything like this he would face a leadership challenge. In all honesty the numbers are that back and the advice he is getting from SAGE is so strong, Johnson is fucked if he does nothing and he's fucked if he does. Politically he is in checkmate - i think thats him gone early next year regardless. So things are going to be hairy from that point of view. But I do think Labour will back him up - they need to go for financial support being a condition of this though (i dont think they will get it - Tories will play hard ball forcing Labour into voting for it anyway in the national interest).
I just feel this is Johnson Final Act. He gets to almost 'fall on his sword in an act of noble sacrifice' and swan off into the sunset with Carrie and the kids. Which will suit his ego, his love of the classics and his lazy arse down to the ground.
The question becomes who replaces him. Its likely to be soneone much more hardline and to the right of the tory party. Which also doesn't bode well for the future.
Will people abide by the restrictions? I think many will stick to them having been 'allowed' Christmas. I think lots won't too. I do think people will still have big parties. But not in hotels and not in nightclubs and not in pubs.
Its infection rates in the 20 to 30 age groups which has gone through the roof in the past fortnight. Ive heard of dozens of people getting infected at Christmas parties first hand. So it does make sense really. This age group don't have huge houses to party in to be blunt about it. We might see illegal raves - but its December so that makes demand for an outdoor one lower and its going to be hard to fix an illegal venue sorted.
So yeah. I think its possibly the very weakest course of action available. I think its probably, on balance, not a dreadful idea. But I think hospitality is going to be shafted.
I had plans to see family on the 2nd. We had to move it to the second because DS got covid. So it directly screws that up and I'm looking for other ways around it as we've not seen them for 2 years already.
Fun times.