Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
158
boys3 · 30/12/2021 00:03

20-39s

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
boys3 · 30/12/2021 00:03

0-19s

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
boys3 · 30/12/2021 00:11

and just to add a bit more emphasis. 27th December only two days of reporting so far, so likely to end up perhaps in the 130,000 to 140,000 case total in England.

However at the moment its total cases is less than one per cent different to the total now reported (using the gender files) for 21st December. So whilst simplistic a simple comparison.

The age band changes are quite marked however, and hopefully self-explanatory given the lateness of the hour.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
PassingByAndThoughtIdDropIn · 30/12/2021 00:12

Looking at the inner London hotspots from mid-December of Wandsworth, Lambeth and Islington and the hotspot MSOAs of Brixton/Clapham they certainly look to be plateauing in the week to Christmas Eve, at a time when other regions in the UK were shooting up, (so not explained by calendar effects).

JanglyBeads · 30/12/2021 00:27

NHS planning for increased capacity on an alarming scale:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59823652

Flaxmeadow · 30/12/2021 00:39

Yes and no - London much less vaccinated than the rest of the country

Its not much different to central Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and their Met county areas

JanglyBeads · 30/12/2021 00:47

Death stats catch up due tomorrow, watch this space

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1476279510161051650?s=21

containsnuts · 30/12/2021 06:30

[quote JanglyBeads]NHS planning for increased capacity on an alarming scale:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59823652[/quote]
At least there is plan.

A little alarmed to read this though:

"The NHS will also be increasing its use of virtual wards where patients are monitored via remote technology." - BBC

The way of the future? Sad

OriginalM · 30/12/2021 06:42

Just because second vaccines were offered in the last few weeks to secondary kids does not mean most have had the second vaccine.
This seems to be a common misconception that because it's being offered that every secondary child is now eligible and had the 2nd dose and so school covid figures won't be as bad.

The rollout of vaccines to secondary kids varied depending what area and ours only had the vaccine mid December so not eligible for second vaccine yet.
Plus a lot of kids had covid so not able to have the 1st vaccine.
The govt keep pushing 2nd vaccine available for school kids as if they are doing something but most aren't eligible yet.

InMySpareTime · 30/12/2021 07:23

DD (17) only just got her second dose, and she was fairly quick off the mark with her first.

sirfredfredgeorge · 30/12/2021 08:37

Remember there's also a 12 week delay between having covid and booster. And that the booster is nowhere near effective enough at preventing omicron infection (70% reduction which is the best it's ever suggested for a short timer is still almost guaranteed if you mix indoors with cases on multiple occasions) I would love to see the actual evidence for 12-15 year old boosters against omicron, given there was reportedly not the evidence for them against Delta where they had >95% effectiveness for 3 months.

On London, whilst it's undoubtedly peaked at the moment, what I would say is there's strong reason to suspect the peak is artificial based on mitigations (test and isolation and individuals cancelling events), That's likely why we've already had 2 peaks, and it seems to me that a third peak after NYE would be expected.

The mass testing alone is a huge mitigation that delays spread - just not much, and not enough to spread out hospital load much, and mostly just increases the days of really high reported cases.

Tryagainplease · 30/12/2021 08:50

Hi all
Apologies if this has been asked before but I was just looking at the definition of patients admitted to hospital with Covid and patients in hospital with Covid on the government website and they both include people who tested positive after they were admitted (I.e. they weren’t admitted because of Covid) and people who are in hospital for something other than Covid, but happen to have tested positive.

Do you know if there is a split of this data available anywhere? I.e. true figures of people admitted and/or currently in hospital because of Covid?

Thanks.

sirfredfredgeorge · 30/12/2021 08:53

Trying there's no data on admissions, there's data for the proportion of in patients being treated as primary covid or with covid for England in the NHS England Hospital activity link in the opening for these threads.

The number is dropping, but the number is still over 2/3rds primary covid. This could hide all sorts of proportions on the admissions data though.

Barbie222 · 30/12/2021 08:55

I think the Guardian did a recent piece of work on this and estimated it to be about 70% primary cause Covid / 30% incidental Covid. www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/29/how-can-we-measure-the-true-scale-of-uk-covid-hospital-admissions

Regulus · 30/12/2021 09:00

Do you think it would be an idea to factor in schools will be returning next week @Firefliess?

I'm not predicting it. I'm looking at the dashboard where you can clearly see the numbers rising rapidly in early December, then plateauing.

I also think the data has been influenced by schools, I'm my area the plateau corresponded to a drop in school attendance. The drop in school attendance was both covid and fear of covid.

Regards vaccines I'm a volunteer and we are turning away any child that arrives before 12 weeks, due to the farcical school role out on my area very few are eligible before the end of Jan. (Remember you couldn't book online for 12-15 until mid October)
A final observation before I recommence lurking, parents at the vaccine centre have been much more concerned about the risk of the second jab and myocarditis. It will be interesting to see the data difference on the amount of first and second jabs and see if earlier policy decisions affects take up.

sirfredfredgeorge · 30/12/2021 09:08

I'm my area the plateau corresponded to a drop in school attendance

No areas had omicron and school attendance other than London, and London's peak was for infections caught the weekend after schools broke up.

Schools drove the last delta wave, they have not been open yet during omicron other than in London where they were not the drivers of the spread at the time - which was pub-goers at christmas parties.

Tryagainplease · 30/12/2021 09:12

[quote Barbie222]I think the Guardian did a recent piece of work on this and estimated it to be about 70% primary cause Covid / 30% incidental Covid. www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/29/how-can-we-measure-the-true-scale-of-uk-covid-hospital-admissions[/quote]
Thank you, that’s a great article and makes a lot of sense.

Firefliess · 30/12/2021 09:14

There are schools outside London too you know. And Christmas happened in the same date. Omicron got established earlier in London and rates appear to be flattening in late December at the same time as they're rising fast in other regions. That can't be primarily down to school term dates.

containsnuts · 30/12/2021 09:28

@Firefliess

There are schools outside London too you know. And Christmas happened in the same date. Omicron got established earlier in London and rates appear to be flattening in late December at the same time as they're rising fast in other regions. That can't be primarily down to school term dates.
The surge in school kids was Delta. They'll likely have an Omicron surge when they go back since it doesn't seem that Delta infection (or vaccination) prevents Omicron.
sirfredfredgeorge · 30/12/2021 09:28

There are schools outside London too you know

There were only a few areas with Omicron outside London during school time, none had their omicron peak earlier than London, any area outside London that has started going down has not had an omicron peak yet. As I said too, I don't think London's had all its peaks either.

Firefliess · 30/12/2021 10:02

I do agree that the Omicron peak may be messy and happen at different times in different age groups, so possible they'll be some bumps ahead for London too as schools go back etc. But I do not think we'll see a return to the two-day doubling of cases that we saw in early December, are seeing currently in some other areas, and may yet see in a few areas where Omicron is only just getting going.

ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 30/12/2021 10:03

@Tryagainplease

Hi all Apologies if this has been asked before but I was just looking at the definition of patients admitted to hospital with Covid and patients in hospital with Covid on the government website and they both include people who tested positive after they were admitted (I.e. they weren’t admitted because of Covid) and people who are in hospital for something other than Covid, but happen to have tested positive.

Do you know if there is a split of this data available anywhere? I.e. true figures of people admitted and/or currently in hospital because of Covid?

Thanks.

The nhs measures it and there's a lag in dates (latest 23rd Dec). It's at the bottom of this page:

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

From a Very rough look at London numbers it seems to be that people hospitalised primarily because of Covid are becoming a slightly higher proportion but still as per the guardian article it's ~70-75%. I think it'll be updated tomorrow.

herecomesthsun · 30/12/2021 10:09

This might help to visualise the difference

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 30/12/2021 10:15

I'm in Wandsworth which has had crazy high omicron rates. Primary school definitely had 2 peaks. October / November was delta, at one point only 8 kids out of 30 were in my DD year 1 class (some parents kept kids off to avoid). But Omicron was just starting to hit as they broke up on the 17th. Of my elder DDs mates (year5) pretty much everyone & their families got it (though not us 🤷‍♀️)

We went to the Luna cinema just before Christmas and it was empty. Maybe 10-15 people in a cinema designed for around 150. It was fully booked a week before (looked to buy an extra ticket for a friend who then got covid 😆). I can only guess that it was a mix of people having tested positive and people hunkering down so they could see family.

But the streets round here have still emptied for Christmas so I can only imagine everyone has gone off to family, & 5-10% probably had covid.

ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 30/12/2021 10:18

@herecomesthsun

This might help to visualise the difference
Thank you! I couldn't be bothered to chart it.

The 23rd December number is 75% -1197/1602

Swipe left for the next trending thread