Will London be locked down before Christmas?

[endoftether4]

Could Londoners be locked down again this Christmas? How likely do people think this is? I’m dreading having to spend another Christmas without my family and am considering leaving early to avoid another lockdown.

Much good track and trace will do anyone.

Contact tracing didn’t keep a lid on Delta in NZ with borders shit starting from one case.

Omicron even more infectious.,

Shut ..

Maybe

@MarshaBradyo

I didn’t see the post

I think there’s one that posts ironically - Jourdain? Usually not serious

But haven’t looked back

But yes agree people should think about who brings them what they need

Not jourdain!

Oh I stand corrected then

Someone does expect it!

@Whatafool123

My mum has already decided she doesn't want us round at Christmas, she is just so scared despite all of us adults being triple jabbed. My son's whole class, as well as others, have been sent home now until next terms with instructions to get PCRs. It's all so depressing.

That’s really sad, the depression and fear that this has caused is just awful.

My late MIL was absolutely terrified of COVID, she lost the last year of her life by shutting herself away, just really so sad.

Life is too precious and short to live in constant fear.

@BaconAndAvocado

DS2, at secondary school, told me yesterday that one of his teachers said the students would be going back in January in a staggered way, year group by year group.

So is that a random school teacher who is privy to government plans or something a random school has decided to do

@SirensofTitan - that's definitely happening where I live, we've had an email about it already.

English secondary schools are testing pupils at the start of term. Ours has staggered arrivals to help the school manage this. I guess some schools might split it across different days.

[quote valerianroot]@SirensofTitan - that's definitely happening where I live, we've had an email about it already.[/quote]
My dcs school has already done this a couple of times @valerianroot as I'm sure hundreds of other schools have, it's sensible and not new so I didn't know what point the poster was trying to make in relation to a London lockdown

No, I think they know they can never try and control what we do in our own homes again.

I do think there will be closures and cancellations though, probably more from staff having to isolate than through other restrictions.

No - it’s not the north so they won’t lock it down the way they did the north west when figures were similar with a much less transmissible variant

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html

Sorry, I know it’s a DM link but it’s an interesting article by the Dr who first alerted others about Omicron.

@TangfasticsAreFantastic

I've just been on a local council group meeting and they are expecting additional restrictions in January which, personally, I suspect will tie up with most people otherwise having been offered their booster.

They're calling it "Plan B +" and believe it could include:

• bringing back 2m social distancing
• bringing back Track and Trace
• hospitality to be open but back to table service

I think there will then be a later addition of Covid passes with everyone expected to have their booster.

As for proper lockdowns? No. The conservative party are conservative by nature, so I don't envisage them choosing the option that would likely end up in rioting in the streets and nationwide disobedience.

2m social distancing will murder hospitality. They know that

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/does-britain-really-have-200-000-new-omicron-cases-a-day-9qcpcvgrq?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1639482479
Does Britain really have 200,000 new Omicron cases a day?

Yesterday in the Commons, Sajid Javid said two things. He told parliament there were 4,713 confirmed cases of Omicron in total. He also said that the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) estimates that there are 200,000 new Omicron infections a day. [RTB: been clarified by the UKHSA as 200,000 new cases of omicron on 13th December alone as there was some confusion over this]

This second number would mean we are already exceeding the pessimistic trajectory in the modelling seen by the government over the weekend.

Anecdote time. On Sat 4th a party of DH's friends went for a night out in Manchester on a minibus. Of the 16 on the bus most of them tested positive early last week. Last night one of them was told it was omicron. Not one of the others has been told this. Realistically the chances of so many of them testing positive so quickly after this event and only one of them being omicron are slim.

I was surprised it took so long for them to tell this guy although i do know they are massively behind on sequencing and the backlog can only be growing.

I do think the numbers by Friday are going to freak people out.

I don't actually think we will need a formal lockdown for that reason. The majority who would would follow social distancing restrictions will cut back on their social contacts anyway. Especially if Sturgeon announces it formally in Scotland today. People who wouldn't listen would probably break restrictions anyway.

The problem lies in those in businesses who are shafted without economic support and workers in retail who have to go to work. However if the numbers continue into next week at that rate I suspect you'll start to see closures or reduced opening anyway due to staff shortages.

So do i think London will see a lockdown pre Christmas.

Still saying no because of Tory Party drama. Do i think things will effectively shut down anyway.

Probably.

Local councils won't have any more information than the rest of us. It's right that they're planning for possibilities, but it's not because they have any information to "expect" anything

Good news is the numbers are unsustainable for a long period. So very steep sharp spike over Christmas and new year. January will be a mess. But things should be over quicker than previously.

Should.

@RedToothBrush

Good news is the numbers are unsustainable for a long period. So very steep sharp spike over Christmas and new year. January will be a mess. But things should be over quicker than previously.

Should.

Isn't that what would have happened if we'd let it run it's course in the first place? Absolute carnage but over quickly?

Why Londoners being locked down again this Christmas?? We were all locked down last Christmas, not just London.

I don't really understand why they're not limiting numbers in shops again, that seems sensible. Horrible obviously because it would be back to queuing up outside the supermarket, but as it is it's a free for all and no social distancing.

@lifeinlimbo2020

Why Londoners being locked down again this Christmas?? We were all locked down last Christmas, not just London.

Not quite. For some of us it was the first and only day in months that we could legally have certain meetings in our homes.

@Sparklingbrook

I don't really understand why they're not limiting numbers in shops again, that seems sensible. Horrible obviously because it would be back to queuing up outside the supermarket, but as it is it's a free for all and no social distancing.

It's all about they money. This month is crucial for the survival of many shops and I reckon if restrictions change it will be last minute like the 24th Pubs and restaurants are already paused off about cancelled parties and they don't want to piss off retail too- even though many retailers are essential so will be open anyway.

I spoke with a county councillor yesterday. Yes, plans are in place, but no, they are not definite . They should absolutely have plans in place anyway.

Cousin participated in a large-scale catastrophe simulation several years ago. So there is always some extent of planning. Likewise an escaped convict was once on the loose near the dcs’ school. The teachers sprung into lockdown mode - it was very impressive. The kids thought it the most thrilling thing ever!

Yes I totally get why they wouldn't want to do it @luverlybubberly, it just seems that ramming loads of people into small spaces in the shops goes against what they're trying to achieve.
They'll possibly give it a whirl after the Boxing Day sales.

@lifeinlimbo2020

Why Londoners being locked down again this Christmas?? We were all locked down last Christmas, not just London.

OP Most people will see their families regardless of any rule changes. If you rely on trains then it might be worth travelling sooner but considering what we know now, the people who followed the rules were often the ones who could do with a visit and shouldn't have died or been sick alone.

I think I saw something in the press saying that the 18th is when Boris will consider any Christmas rule changes. I suspect that even he has no clue what may happen so try not to worry. I would try and get hold of some LFT and masks then travel once I could.