Will London be locked down before Christmas?

[endoftether4]

Could Londoners be locked down again this Christmas? How likely do people think this is? I’m dreading having to spend another Christmas without my family and am considering leaving early to avoid another lockdown.

@Sparklingbrook

Yes I totally get why they wouldn't want to do it *@luverlybubberly*, it just seems that ramming loads of people into small spaces in the shops goes against what they're trying to achieve. They'll possibly give it a whirl after the Boxing Day sales.

People aren't going to tolerate waiting in the cold and rain and I suspect retailers prefer customers to come in store than order online because they might buy more "because it's Christmas"

Isn't that what would have happened if we'd let it run it's course in the first place? Absolute carnage but over quickly?

Absolutely not.

For the first wave we lacked any PPE, masks, immunity, antiviral drugs, knowledge of how best to treat people and most of all vaccines.

Our hospital rates would have run at an astronomical rate - until the point people couldn't have been hospitalised at all.

Plus the R rate was lower so it would have been much more prolonged issue. And it wouldn't have stopped subsequent waves.

I think people fail to grasp what % of deaths we had in the 1st wave compared to the alpha and delta waves. And what % of the population were infected. It was only about 6%.

Our lockdowns allowed things to slow down enough to develop vaccines. It was hugely important to give uninfected vulnerable people some protection. The numbers show this for the delta wave which largely passed through without a lockdown.

Omicron is problematic not because of severity but sheer numbers although we have some level of immunity now. And that means we have a different kind of problem and associated issues.

We are going to hear a lot more about those in the coming days. Its highly likely to be about mass staff sickness which cause all manner of problems. There are already problems occurring with the postal service. We know some schools have had to close due to 1/2 the staff being off. Thats only going to get worse over the next few days. Schools closing at the end of the week will make some difference but theres a lag to that too and we will be firmly into Christmas at that point too.

Next week might be a bit of a car crash for many.

Against omicron, i question how effective a lockdown over Christmas with a restriction fatigued public, will be. Plus you have the political problem of the Tory Party Infighting blocking that anyway. The R is enormous for omicron so that changes the dynamics a great deal too.

Yes you have to feel for the retail staff in large shops coming into contact with all those different people all day and with numbers not restricted and no social distancing at the busiest time of year.

But as you say it's about the money and for some small businesses it would be a disaster.

@Notonthestairs

English secondary schools are testing pupils at the start of term. Ours has staggered arrivals to help the school manage this. I guess some schools might split it across different days.

Ours is staggered over 2 days so my dd should be back on Tuesday 4th Jan but is actually back Thursday 6th Jan after a test at school about 3pm on the Wednesday. Rest of Wednesday and the Tuesday will be online learning. Other classes are going back on the atuesday/Wednesday in a staggered way.

@Sparklingbrook

Yes you have to feel for the retail staff in large shops coming into contact with all those different people all day and with numbers not restricted and no social distancing at the busiest time of year.

But as you say it's about the money and for some small businesses it would be a disaster.

Im not convinced its simply about the money this time actually.

Ive breezed through all the other restrictions bar one wobble last October. Im pretty ok with being on my own.

But in the last six weeks DS (7) has had to isolate twice. The prospect of another lockdown made me bust into tears last night. I don't think I could do it again. Not to the letter.

I get all the science on this. I get the numbers.

But i also get the unintended consequences and they have grown massively since the first lockdown. And lockdown against an R this high might not work even if people complied. I'm realistic about it and it being different to previous scenarios.

DS is a superstar. He's fine. Taken in stride. Got help with school. Given time and attention. His peers aren't. The behavioural stuff and the falling behind is awful. And that has an impact on DS indirectly anyway. And this is at a good school in a good area.

I know the chance of closures in January is high.

My attitude is that if I'm reaching breaking point now, then I really think others will be in a far far worse position. Im pretty solid on understanding whats going on and a bit of a hermit at thr best of times.

Its one of those where, even with the best will in the world, you can't stop the ceiling falling in because the foundations were shattered by the previous earthquake before.

Its almost like its one step too much.

Its awful because I do fully understand whats about to happen. I just don't really see how it will be stopped if im being realistic.

I meant the restricting numbers in shops specifically, agreeing not doing that that was because of money and trying to prop up the retail sector, rather than the whole lockdown like we saw last year.

And the hospitality sector, locally the cancellations of bookings are flooding in again.

I don't really understand why they're not limiting numbers in shops again, that seems sensible. Horrible obviously because it would be back to queuing up outside the supermarket, but as it is it's a free for all and no social distancing.

It was never sensible. Limiting the number of people in shops did nothing to address the concentration of people in pinch points in shops, air flow through buildings or discouraging people from going to the shops (especially given that home delivery was so difficult to get). All it did was make people stand in the cold and the wet for longer than they should have had to.

@ClaudiaWankleman

I don't really understand why they're not limiting numbers in shops again, that seems sensible. Horrible obviously because it would be back to queuing up outside the supermarket, but as it is it's a free for all and no social distancing.

It was never sensible. Limiting the number of people in shops did nothing to address the concentration of people in pinch points in shops, air flow through buildings or discouraging people from going to the shops (especially given that home delivery was so difficult to get). All it did was make people stand in the cold and the wet for longer than they should have had to.

I feel it did work. It meant you could socially distance more easily and it meant the retail staff stood a bit of a chance.

@ClaudiaWankleman

I don't really understand why they're not limiting numbers in shops again, that seems sensible. Horrible obviously because it would be back to queuing up outside the supermarket, but as it is it's a free for all and no social distancing.

It was never sensible. Limiting the number of people in shops did nothing to address the concentration of people in pinch points in shops, air flow through buildings or discouraging people from going to the shops (especially given that home delivery was so difficult to get). All it did was make people stand in the cold and the wet for longer than they should have had to.

I was just remembering those cold queues and I agree

There were also the very hot queues in the summer.

@RedToothBrush, yes completely agree. This might be the step (potential lockdown) which breaks people. We've been asked for one last push too many times.

@Sparklingbrook

There were also the very hot queues in the summer.

Were there?

I thought that kind of thing was dropped in the summers

The Sainsbury’s queue I remember going round the car park I associate with being really cold

I am not convinced a lockdown would be effective at all - so far no country has gone that far.

Targeted sensible restrictions on things yes. If you use the tidal wave analogy we need to batten down the hatches as much as we can. Get everything prepared and ready but I think beyond that we are going to have to ride it out. Because unlike previous ones I dont think this one can be stopped. I think we just need to hope for the best and that are infrastructure can cope.

That vaccinations and previous infection immunity hold up and that it is milder and hope that we can cope with the number of isolations (this point will be interesting)

The main mitigation is ventilation. Windows and doors open. But it has rarely happened in most places whatever the weather. Even my Drs surgery didn't open the windows.

There were also the very hot queues in the summer.

I can only think of the pre-Christmas supermarket queue - the one just after Boris' announcement when we all had to work out what the hell we were going to do to celebrate. I arrived at 6am for the 7am opening. Didn't manage to get in until 7:40am and didn't make my first work meeting. I was so cold!

I definitely remember being in queues for the shops thinking I’d get sun stroke but don’t know exactly which month that was.

It was never sensible. Limiting the number of people in shops did nothing to address the concentration of people in pinch points in shops, air flow through buildings or discouraging people from going to the shops (especially given that home delivery was so difficult to get). All it did was make people stand in the cold and the wet for longer than they should have had to

Well yeah I mean supermarkets and other shops are open for 12+ hours a day.

If I'm.gonna serve 100 people I'm.gonna serge 100 people whether they cone in together or staggered.

I'm also gonna spend far longer with them.while they kick off at me fir the inconvenience than I would have done of they'd just walked in done their business amd walked out.

Last spring was very warm. I remember trying to balance waiting in the queue with finding a spot with even a tiny bit of shade. (May ish?)

It was never sensible. Limiting the number of people in shops did nothing to address the concentration of people in pinch points in shops, air flow through buildings or discouraging people from going to the shops (especially given that home delivery was so difficult to get). All it did was make people stand in the cold and the wet for longer than they should have had to.

I think that there was a lot unknown about Covid (remember people disinfecting shopping, mail and deliveries until they worked out that catching Covid from a surface is extremely low?)

I have a ds who works in retail and he said that it was a nightmare managing the queue. There were lots of aggressive and angry people and being threatened was common. I hope that things have calmed down for retail staff since those days.

I hope not, but what I do know is that come hell or high water dd will NOT be spending Christmas alone.

She is due to drive up on xmas even after finishing work. If London is locked down her workplace will close so she will come home then. If she catches covid again then I will drive down to her. My husband and son will understand (dh cannot leave his father as it will be his first xmas since mil went into a care home with dementia.) I'd need to book in a hotel as she has no space for me (room in a shared house) but she will NOT be alone after the year she has had.

I don't usually post ironically - only occasionally. But yes, my post about staying at home and eating tinned tomatoes on toilet paper was indeed ironic

Truthfully, I think public appetite for lockdown is vastly reduced and most people would only pay lip service. There has to come a point where they stop just arbitrarily locking down sections of the economy, it is not really viable to keep doing so.

@Jourdain11

I don't usually post ironically - only occasionally. But yes, my post about staying at home and eating tinned tomatoes on toilet paper was indeed ironic

Truthfully, I think public appetite for lockdown is vastly reduced and most people would only pay lip service. There has to come a point where they stop just arbitrarily locking down sections of the economy, it is not really viable to keep doing so.

Ah yes I can see that

It was the other one that was quite close but actually sincere

I probably should have just rtft

I hope schools can struggle on till the end of the week but I think we’ll see closures in January.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59655829
Scots urged to limit socialising to three households

That's some very wishy washy guidance from Nicola. There are more details on the guardian website.