Is another lockdown inevitable?

[Flowersandjellybeans]

I just can’t work out whether it’s more likely than not we’ll end up in another lockdown (and when that might be)…

There are multiple articles in all the newspapers, often contradicting each other… I honestly can’t work out what is likely to happen or really even on the table and when it would actually happen?

YANBU = yes, we’ll end up in another lockdown
YABU = no, we won’t have another lockdown

There won't be another lockdown. There will be guidance rather than law, heavily suggesting that we distance from all others, but there will be no closures or lockdowns. That way the government don't have to pay people for not being able to go to work (as they weren't legally told not to!) and at the same time they can say 'Well we DID warn you' if people don't distance and cases go up.

Haven't rtft, but I think if two az jabs offer 0% protection from infection and the vast majority of our vulnerable populations were vaxxed with that then we could be in trouble. We need more info to see what effect the az has on preventing serious illness but the rate this is spreading it could be too late by time we find out.

I don't think however the govt will lockdown before Christmas. They'd see it as political suicide even if it is the better option in terms of buying time to see what this variant can do. It's just bad timing all round.

The elephant in the room is the NHS and the unvaccinated.

Look at the NHS properly. Don’t just throw taxpayers money at it. It’s wasted, we waste it. Get a more sensible co payment system in where people take some responsibility for their health. People on very low incomes, benefits can be excluded. Learn from other European countries. The USA system is irrelevant before any one says anything. We will never accept that but there is definitely a reason why we are the only country who has a system like this (and it’s not a good one).

We cannot keep saying we are protecting the NHS, NHS on its knees etc. It’s mis management and we cannot keep doing this every time a new virus appears.

Enough has been said about the unvaccinated by others but I would start to make it difficult for them to do certain things. And I don’t mind vaccine passports either.

@SnailandtheWail

There is no way people are going to comply with not seeing their families again at Christmas. I cancelled seeing all mine last year but I won’t do that again.

Which would be a major source of virus spreading. Before Covid the NHS would be under pressure in the first 2 weeks of January dealing with admissions. These maxed out capacity.

Throw in an added factor and it reaches breaking point. Which is the trigger for lockdown.

Pick your poison.

@Diditreallylookawful

I think schools might close - a thought that fills me with complete dread. But our school has been badly hit and if a new variant means that you can get Covid more easily then it's going to spread even faster. 😞

Are the pubs also going to close? What about sport being broadcast on TV surely that should stop too given how many clusters have been associated with it?

I find it strange in a parenting forum that the first thing being called for closure is schools.

If they close schools they’ll be unprecedented demand for keyworker places. I know my DS will be gong in 5 days a week. Then sit back and wait for the countless threads on here about the number of keyworker kids in schools,

@Franklin12

The elephant in the room is the NHS and the unvaccinated.

Look at the NHS properly. Don’t just throw taxpayers money at it. It’s wasted, we waste it. Get a more sensible co payment system in where people take some responsibility for their health. People on very low incomes, benefits can be excluded. Learn from other European countries. The USA system is irrelevant before any one says anything. We will never accept that but there is definitely a reason why we are the only country who has a system like this (and it’s not a good one).

We cannot keep saying we are protecting the NHS, NHS on its knees etc. It’s mis management and we cannot keep doing this every time a new virus appears.

Enough has been said about the unvaccinated by others but I would start to make it difficult for them to do certain things. And I don’t mind vaccine passports either.

Excellent post, and many excellent points.

@SnailandtheWail

Family. I have no idea what a Damilo is.

A pantomime character. Basically people still want their Xmas traditions, like panto.

Completely agree with @Franklin12. We locked down for the NHS. It didn't lock out for us as quickly as it should have done.

@Franklin12

The elephant in the room is the NHS and the unvaccinated.

Look at the NHS properly. Don’t just throw taxpayers money at it. It’s wasted, we waste it. Get a more sensible co payment system in where people take some responsibility for their health. People on very low incomes, benefits can be excluded. Learn from other European countries. The USA system is irrelevant before any one says anything. We will never accept that but there is definitely a reason why we are the only country who has a system like this (and it’s not a good one).

We cannot keep saying we are protecting the NHS, NHS on its knees etc. It’s mis management and we cannot keep doing this every time a new virus appears.

Enough has been said about the unvaccinated by others but I would start to make it difficult for them to do certain things. And I don’t mind vaccine passports either.

Whilst I agree with a lot of your post we should never shut the doors to unvaccinated people. Every year the hospital is full of people who havnt had a flu shot.

Its the same every year.

We must never go down a path where certain people are excluded from health care - ever because it will lead on to over weight people, alcoholics, people not managing their diabetes properly, smokers.

I dont mind covid passports. But absolutely not to the withholding of healthcare. I work in the NHS and I would never advocate this to happen

The same people calling for lockdown is it the same people calling those lazy furlough last time?. Remember not everyone can wfh if industry’s close what do you expect people to do ?.

If they close schools they’ll be unprecedented demand for keyworker places

I can see schools being forced to close due to a lack of available staff. There have been no available supply teachers in my LEA for the last 2 weeks. It won’t be a case of ‘schools open but loads of V/KW children in’, some just won’t be able to open which will be localised and last-minute. It’s like ‘whack a mole’ round here.

Unless Us4Them were serious last year about staffing schools themselves with mum volunteers?

If they close schools they’ll be unprecedented demand for keyworker places

This doesn’t help with the non KW who get hit worst every time.

There is absolutely no way on this Earth I would comply with another lockdown.

I think there should be but hell will freeze over before the government locks down again

Surely what we need know is a National CoVID service.

This would take care of the infection control, vaccine programme, acutely care and rehab. Separate it from the NHS so those services can try and catch up.

I know everyone will say what about staff/hospitals etc but this needs to be a longer term plan. For example the forces already helped with testing, vaccines and nightingales so that would be a start. I think HCAs can be trained up in 12 weeks and nurses and AHPs in three years. If you wanted to specialise in CoviD maybe there could be a specialist condensed course. More doctors takes much longer but perhaps we need to look at increasing nursing prescribers and other highly specialised AHPs. We’re locking down to make sure there is enough beds and care. Another option is to increase beds and care.

We also need social care sorting out to free beds. I think social work is a one year postgrad course? Carers is a 12 week course for the basics.

Are these really impossible things? Are they a worse prospect than endless restrictions and locking down?

• need now
• acute care

Sorry for typos

I think we will have more insane restrictions (like in Scotland where we are told not to have Christmas work parties, but nightclubs and pubs remain open with no issues), but a full lock down? Nah don't think so.

The only people this covid variant is likely to affect is the unvaccinated, and even then its probably the same as your average flu. The ones unvaccinated for an actual reason are likely still isolating and taking precautions for their health to protect themselves, they arent daft. The ones choosing not to get it, that's on their head. They can cope with a little bit of flu.

Are the pubs also going to close? What about sport being broadcast on TV surely that should stop too given how many clusters have been associated with it?

No, because closing pubs means they have to bring furlough back and they can't afford to do that. Closing hospitality on the run up to Christmas (again) would be a death knell for so many businesses.

Who is going to pay millions of peoples wages if we shut down hospitality and retail for months on end?

Nope I cannot forsee another lockdown, there was a lady who said not so long ago that Spring would see the end of Covid, given this is a mild version and where it's been said it's looking like the tail end of Covid it may well be that she was right, I think a lot of people and the press like to cause mass hysteria.

Just to clarify re unvaccinated people. I don’t mean stop healthcare but perhaps look at travel restrictions re going abroad, going to indoor concerts etc. I don’t want an unvaccinated person anywhere near my elderly parents one of whom is in a care home.

But honestly - the NHS needs a serious review. We cannot carry on like this. Every year the NHS is on its knees, needs help etc. EVERY SODDING YEAR AND YEARS BEFORE COVID APPEARED!

And I have my tin hat at the ready for this one. I would make masks compulsory. No exceptions, no self ID’s for this. I have many relatives living aboard. No mask, no coming in. We are far far too soft on this. Of course there are a very small minority of people who REALLY cannot wear one but that doesn’t mean we all have to take the consequences of not some people quite frankly not fancying wearing one and pretending they are exempt. I know shopping might be tricky but we have online shopping, other people to do it etc. We have got to get out of this cycle of variants, lockdown, variant lockdown by throwing as much as we can at this.

If they close schools they’ll be unprecedented demand for keyworker places. I know my DS will be gong in 5 days a week

If they close schools it will because teachers are sick with Omicron. You might not be able to get a KW place.

No. No money for furlough and this would be the end for many hospitality businesses.

The last ones the rational was 'lockdown while we vaccinate' which people could accept.

Most people have had the vaccines now and the booster campaign is happening.

There will always be another variant and suggesting that we need to lock down every bloody year is simply unsustainable.

The 'NHS will be overwhelmed' argument is not viable either. Government has had 2 years to try to work out ways to organise it better in term of Covid response and nothing has been done. For example I can't get how all private hospitals have not been told that they will have to help the Covid effort over the winter to help capacity.

I will not follow social distancing anymore. I am triple jabbed and I have followed the rules until now but no more.

Franklin12 I agree with you regarding masks I was absolutely sickened to see the amount of people on eBay selling the disability lanyards so much so I reported them all, I will bet a huge amount of people with no disabilities have bought them so they do not have to wear a mask it's disgusting.

ElectraBlue Our local hospital are using the private hospitals for patient care so I imagine other hospitals are doing the same.

@Ubiquery

It’s good practice in living with uncertainty.

For whom?