Is another lockdown inevitable?

[Flowersandjellybeans]

I just can’t work out whether it’s more likely than not we’ll end up in another lockdown (and when that might be)…

There are multiple articles in all the newspapers, often contradicting each other… I honestly can’t work out what is likely to happen or really even on the table and when it would actually happen?

YANBU = yes, we’ll end up in another lockdown
YABU = no, we won’t have another lockdown

For those saying that the unvaccnated should be locked down, presumably there will be future boosters going forward so unless you have each one on time there should be a lockdown for those that don't?

I can't imagine anything more abhorrent, what kind of society is that?

@walksen

"The economy hasn't recovered from last time and will crumble completely."

Hysterical nonsense.

The economy isn't where it should be because of the pandemic but also Brexit which according to some estimates will do more harm longer term but we are a long fucking way from a crumbled economy...

Restrictions are likely on the way sometime in the new year. It is far from clear that it will be a form of lockdown.

I don't think anyone will comply in the run up to Christmas after the do as we say not as we do revelations the last few weeks but we know from last year this will cause a surge in January.

No it's not hysterical nonsense.

I have many friends who have seen their business crumble through this pandemic - and it wasn't Brexit related.

People who dont have businesses dont give a shiney shit about restrictions as they are either retired and on pensions/can work from home/or on benefits.

Its very selfish thinking.

@gettingolderandgrumpy

Why are people so terrified of catching covid if all double/ triple vaccinated?. Why do some say my parents won’t survive covid why ? Do they have underlying health conditions? Or are they reasonably well and fit . I would really like to see the statistics that people who are double vaccinated who are reasonably well are dying . For that no way am I locking down for those people it’s insane to even suggest such a thing of closing schools / industry’s for your 90 year old granny who has how many Christmas left ? who I’m sure if you asked her would not want to miss seeing family nor would she want anyone to stop living . Sorry if it’s selfish but that shipped sailed long ago.

People aren't terrified of catching covid. I can't believe we're two years into this and you still don't get it.

If the health service is overwhelmed, you won't be able to get a scan for that dodgy lump or an x-ray after a fall or to get your baby checked out for a concerning rash.

It. isn't. about. catching. covid.

[quote megustalacerveza]@LakieLady early reports say about 75% effective against any symptomatic infection. Protection against severe disease and death likely to be much higher. Double jabbed is much less protection, which is why the gov are pushing for people to get boosted asap.[/quote]
so what you're saying is the vaccine increases the chances of having no symptoms if you get covid meaning there are likely to be more vaccinated people mixing thinking they haven't covid covid when infact they are spreading it to every Tom, Dick and Harry contrary to an unvaccinated person likely to have symptoms staying in. Well that makes perfect sense which is probably why the rate of jabbed people passing covid on is so high.

@megustalacerveza that's not new though is it?

@ddl1

Their healthcare system is far superior,

The USA's healthcare system? Pull the other one! Maybe some countries, but NOT the USA, unless you're super-rich.

Their life expectancy is at least two years below ours.

And while it's true that in most states, they make less use of public transport than we do (mainly because they have much less), they certainly don't have that many living in huge houses!

I knew someone would be along to say this. It's very draining having to spell everything out like you're talking to a toddler.

Yes, the US healthcare system has lots of problems, but looking at the GENERAL picture, they have far better capacity than we have, and the geography means that the entire country isn't collapsing at the same time.

The fact they use less public transport is an enormous contributor to helping to reduce covid spread. Over 82% of Americans live in detached housing, so you're talking rubbish if you think their housing situation is anything like ours. Even most poor Americans have a detached house, with its own front door, and aren't passing through communal areas and using lifts every time they need to leave the house. This makes an enormous difference to covid spread. Your average American mixes with far, far fewer people on a given day than. your average Brit. Social distancing is essentially built into their culture.

@TheGreenMeadows no. You clearly know nothing about covid. Maybe do some research rather than posting hysterical nonsense.

@TheGreenMeadows

For those saying that the unvaccnated should be locked down, presumably there will be future boosters going forward so unless you have each one on time there should be a lockdown for those that don't?

I can't imagine anything more abhorrent, what kind of society is that?

You think it's better than the rest of us will keep getting locked down because of a pandemic being driven by unvaccinated people, who are taking up a hugely disproportionate percentage of hospital beds?

I'm sick of paying for your selfishness. Get the vaccine or accept that you're not entitled to go wherever you want in a pandemic. You can't have your cake and eat it.

In less than two months we will have a vaccine for omicron, and in fact it is already in the pipeline. In the meantime it does look like the boosters offer good protection, so there is no need to worry. Even if we need to have a quieter month or two in Jan and Feb, by the spring the boosters will be rolled out and the show will on the road again. This is a very short term problem. The markets are a good indictor of long term prognosis, and omicron may even be the beginning of the endemic cycle, so lets just chill, enjoy Christmas. Plan to get fit in the NY as we would normally do really for a good 2022.

This variant is mild, and yes it might rip through and be a little bumpy in some parts of Europe, but we will come through it, and burst out the other side into the spring.

Interesting thought about government expecting the public to "do a stint" in hospitals, etc; I hadn't thought of that, but frankly nothing would surprise me with this lot

For those saying that the unvaccnated should be locked down, presumably there will be future boosters going forward so unless you have each one on time there should be a lockdown for those that don't?
I can't imagine anything more abhorrent, what kind of society is that?
I don't disagree about the abhorrence, but unless some of the panic about every last aspect of this abates, we may soon have no choice. Even those who scream "lockdown!!" at every verse end seem to be realising we can't do that for ever (or so it seems when they never answer the question about Covid being here to stay), so with frustration building we may soon need another choice

Let's keep it simple

Question 1) Do we believe as virtually every scientist/doctor says that we will all get covid eventually regardless of how careful we are?

If the answer is yes, it's irrelevant what the transmission rates are and whether the vaccinated are more likely to pass on something everyone will get so we move onto the only other main reason to take the vaccine which is personal health and the strain on the NHS

Question 2) Who is more likely to overrun the NHS, an overweight vaccinated patient in a pub most nights enjoying life with a covid pass or an introvert who is unvaccinated maintaning a healthy lifestyle? Clearly a younger unvaccinated person is less likely to need NHs treatment contrary to an elderly smoker/drinker so there goes the NHS argument unless we are to mandate BMI passes an ban alcohol etc.

The vaccine is and should be a personal health choice and no other reason for taking it stands up to a modicum of scrutiny

@megustalacerveza The pandemic isn't being " driven by unvaccinated people" at all. The majority of people in hospitals are vacicnated elderly people as we have already established

"People who dont have businesses dont give a shiney shit about restrictions as they are either retired and on pensions/can work from home/or on benefits."

More bullshit frankly. Lots of people work and get SSP sick pay or none at all, including me. Millions of people who don't have businesses didn't get government grants, loans, self employed payments etc.

Businesses have gone bust for years. It's nothing new. That is not the same as the economy crumbling

The government have allowed a jobs market where millions of people don't know how much work they will get or how much money they will earn with zero safety blanket. If that state of affairs is acceptable for employees why not business owners?

What megustalacerveza said. I think maybe this needs to be spoken about more in the news as people do not seem to understand it.

@TheGreenMeadows

Let's keep it simple

Question 1) Do we believe as virtually every scientist/doctor says that we will all get covid eventually regardless of how careful we are?

If the answer is yes, it's irrelevant what the transmission rates are and whether the vaccinated are more likely to pass on something everyone will get so we move onto the only other main reason to take the vaccine which is personal health and the strain on the NHS

Question 2) Who is more likely to overrun the NHS, an overweight vaccinated patient in a pub most nights enjoying life with a covid pass or an introvert who is unvaccinated maintaning a healthy lifestyle? Clearly a younger unvaccinated person is less likely to need NHs treatment contrary to an elderly smoker/drinker so there goes the NHS argument unless we are to mandate BMI passes an ban alcohol etc.

The vaccine is and should be a personal health choice and no other reason for taking it stands up to a modicum of scrutiny

You're showing a complete lack of understanding of the challenges faced by the NHS. Until you get your head around the situation we're in with our healthcare system, nothing will make sense to you.

The statistics speak for themselves. The unvaccinated are now taking up a hugely disproportionate number of hospital beds. People who probably wouldn't be there if they'd been jabbed. Your flimsy logic has been debunked by the facts, I'm afraid. Choosing not to be vaccinated hugely increases your chances of ending up in hospital with covid. You don't get a gold star because you eat fruit and go to the gym sometimes.

[quote megustalacerveza]@TheGreenMeadows no. You clearly know nothing about covid. Maybe do some research rather than posting hysterical nonsense.[/quote]
It is only hysterical to people who don't know what they are talking about like your goodself

[quote TheGreenMeadows]@megustalacerveza The pandemic isn't being " driven by unvaccinated people" at all. The majority of people in hospitals are vacicnated elderly people as we have already established[/quote]
I don't mean to be rude, but try to learn a bit of maths.

The PROPORTION of beds taken up by unvaccinated people is higher. They make up less than 10% of the population but are taking up 40% of the beds.

Careful, TheGreenMeadows; I'm not sure Mumsnet is quite the place to even mention "BMI passes"

The facts are @megustalacerveza , that the vast majority of hospital patients are in hospital due to age or weight which are far bigger factors compared to whether someone has had their latest booster and classified as vaccinated. It doesn't matter how many times you include abuse in your posts reverting to caps lock, it doesn't change the hospital statistics.

There'll be further restrictions in January, a month the NHS is always on the brink even out of a pandemic.

They might keep some hospitality open (pubs/bars etc) but large events (football matches, nightclubs, theatres, concerts) likely to run at reduced capacity at least and an emphasis on WFH.

@discoland

Last winter lockdown schools didn’t ‘close’ though, they just excluded a portion of the kids. My DC class had over half the children in whilst my child was made to see them all on zoom whilst sat at home. Other schools had close to full classrooms with the minority not allowed in and denied the same education, really can’t allow that to happen again :(

Agree with this. One of my young DC really suffered due to not being able to see people during lockdown and seeing a group of their friends sat together laughing on a video call every day did not help.

@ChimChimeny

The money isn't there for furlough

Surely this is the crux of it? Without furlough you can't shut schools/shops/pubs/restaurants and if all those are.open there is no lock down

This

omicron is mild but we’ll need a vaccine in 2 months.
How does that make sense to anyone?
We’ll all need another vaccine to make sure our passes up to date. Perhaps another one because we’ve realised one isn’t enough. Now we need a booster. Oh look! There’s another milder variant. Let’s get another vaccine out. And so on.

My OH and I are both triple-vaccinated. We have 3 theatre visits planned in the next 10 days and I am having a christmas dinner evening with 9 girlfriends. We are also booked to go away for 4 days over New Year.

Unless things get closed or cancelled, we will carry on regardless. I have been working in a secondary school for the last 3 weeks so I think I'm past the point of thinking I need to keep away from people. Unless any of our family actually have covid come Christmas day, we will all be getting together regardless of what the rules say. My son and daughter-in-law were in Europe last year and had their flights cancelled 3 days before christmas - they're back here now and we are going to have a family christmas even if we do break some rules

Late to the discussion and not read tft, but if they bring back household/close contact isolations we’ll essentially be in lockdown-lite anyway given infection rates.

I’m not completely against the idea tbh.