Is another lockdown inevitable?

[Flowersandjellybeans]

I just can’t work out whether it’s more likely than not we’ll end up in another lockdown (and when that might be)…

There are multiple articles in all the newspapers, often contradicting each other… I honestly can’t work out what is likely to happen or really even on the table and when it would actually happen?

YANBU = yes, we’ll end up in another lockdown
YABU = no, we won’t have another lockdown

There probably should be, but Boris Johnson doesn't have the authority in his own cabinet or in the country to make it happen.

Not voting as I think anything is possible, not probable but possible. This thread will be full of people saying that there definitely won't be , but we should all know by now that nothing is definite.

It’s good practice in living with uncertainty.

I think schools are a main source of transmission right now. Our medium sized primary is absolutely riddled, new positives daily. I hated school closures but I think they should have just ended term on Friday giving two clear weeks until Christmas and thus minimising the likelihood of spreading on Christmas Day. As it stands, Christmas Day is likely to be a superspreader into the older generation and then we will have similar chaos to last January. The only way this won’t happen is if omicron turns out to be mild and not needing hospital treatment. Which, if it does, could spell the end of the pandemic.

I think it could go either way but i don't think people are in the mood to comply with further lockdowns.

I think there may be riots if he tries it.

There is no way people are going to comply with not seeing their families again at Christmas. I cancelled seeing all mine last year but I won’t do that again.

I can't one on the options give

The government will do everything it possibly can to avoid lockdown (too expensive, too harmful to the economy)

But if the numbers needing hospital admission rise too much, then the harm and expense from the damage to NHS will outweigh that and it will be done, but only at the last minute.

I expect there will be a few bumps in terms of numbers on sick leave at any one time as well

@Anomelettefortheroad

I think it could go either way but i don't think people are in the mood to comply with further lockdowns.

People won't comply unless death rates rise significantly. Then they will be begging for one. There needs to be a perceived threat with perceived severity of consequences. My gut feeling (which has no basis in law 😂) is we won't have one. There may be restrictions on mass gatherings, so concerts nightclubs etc. I hope not. I've a busy few months ahead.

Yanbu- i think lockdown is inevitable, if it prevents deaths it’s a no brainier!

I don’t think there will be riots tho… if there are those involved will be people just jumping on the band wagon of the situation. People who are violent who would always get involved no matter what the situation was.
Protests yes, - there were last time.

Riots are extreme, violent and dangerous. It would be a minority of people who would be involved in them.

*I can't vote on the options given!!

I don’t think it’s inevitable, but it’s possible. Although I’m not sure the country can afford to pay for furlough again.
In my area we are going round high schools again after Xmas offering 2nd doses, and I’m fairly sure they will add in 5-11’s soon.

I don't think anyone can answer that now. We just have to wait and see how Omicron affects our population. If we do it'll be in January I think, because of Christmas spreading to older people.

The problem is that lockdown is required because the NHS can't cope, not because covid is causing large numbers of hospitalisations. It is just the straw that broke the camel's back. Social care is the solution in reality, but it takes time and money, and everyone in the sector has known this for years.

I don't think people would comply.

@Flamingolingo

I think schools are a main source of transmission right now. Our medium sized primary is absolutely riddled, new positives daily. I hated school closures but I think they should have just ended term on Friday giving two clear weeks until Christmas and thus minimising the likelihood of spreading on Christmas Day. As it stands, Christmas Day is likely to be a superspreader into the older generation and then we will have similar chaos to last January. The only way this won’t happen is if omicron turns out to be mild and not needing hospital treatment. Which, if it does, could spell the end of the pandemic.

Any place where people gather is a setting for transmission. Seeing how close school children spend their day together, it's interesting that there aren't many more transmissions. Across 3 schools and 2 extra curricular activities with very close contact I have yet to see and outbreak. It's always just been one or two kids and not always connected.

It's unhelpful to think about a national lockdown, locally some places may have to move to online learning for a few day. You can't close schools to save Christmas to save the elderly, we've done this for months on end, we now need to focus on the next generation, ensuring that their mental health and education comes first.

I certainly don't believe there will be a lockdown.

There is no reason for lockdowns and restrictions. Government are taking the piss while they happily carried on with their lives travelling around the country and having parties when we couldnt be with our loved ones.
We have no valid reasons for restrictions and this is unacceptable.

I think unless there are closures (shops, restaurants etc.) then quite a few people simply won't comply with any further restrictions. FWIW I've complied with them all, and am triple jabbed, but even I was wavering this year. The money isn't there for furlough.

This is one of the many reasons why investment in the NHS is vital - if it had the requisite support, we wouldn't be talking about it being overwhelmed & then numbers rising, whilst still being scary & awful for the families of those hospitalised, wouldn't require a societal shutdown in the ways it has previously.

TLDR: fund the NHS.

Yes, but it will be after Christmas.

The money isn't there for furlough

Surely this is the crux of it? Without furlough you can't shut schools/shops/pubs/restaurants and if all those are.open there is no lock down

Unless I'm actually sick myself with Omicrap I'm having Christmas as planned. Don't care what the tiles might be by then. Not putting off seeing the people I live and care about again.

@Charles11

There is no reason for lockdowns and restrictions. Government are taking the piss while they happily carried on with their lives travelling around the country and having parties when we couldnt be with our loved ones. We have no valid reasons for restrictions and this is unacceptable.

There's definitely a "let them eat cake" vibe coming out of the current administration.

Love

Tiles= rules

@Flamingolingo

I think schools are a main source of transmission right now. Our medium sized primary is absolutely riddled, new positives daily. I hated school closures but I think they should have just ended term on Friday giving two clear weeks until Christmas and thus minimising the likelihood of spreading on Christmas Day. As it stands, Christmas Day is likely to be a superspreader into the older generation and then we will have similar chaos to last January. The only way this won’t happen is if omicron turns out to be mild and not needing hospital treatment. Which, if it does, could spell the end of the pandemic.

Why should kids miss more school? If people are worried about spreading covid at Christmas, don't socialise.