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Original poster

Is another lockdown inevitable?

257 replies

Flowersandjellybeans · 12/12/2021 06:52

I just can’t work out whether it’s more likely than not we’ll end up in another lockdown (and when that might be)…

There are multiple articles in all the newspapers, often contradicting each other… I honestly can’t work out what is likely to happen or really even on the table and when it would actually happen?

YANBU = yes, we’ll end up in another lockdown
YABU = no, we won’t have another lockdown

OP posts:
StrangerThanSpring · 12/12/2021 07:31

I think the government has always been slow to respond. So, they wait until things get really bad and then they shut things down severely, but by then it's too late. They should have acted more quickly with smaller measures to reduce the impact of Omicron. Them they wouldn't need the bigger measures later on.

HappyDays40 · 12/12/2021 07:33

While I get what people are saying about school closures I have lived life close to th edge of will my child or won't my child be sent home. I have taken three out of four weeks of my annual leave for childcare and it is impossible in my job to work from home all the time as I work with kids with disabilities. I have nothing left and like many people haven't had any time at home that hasn't been enforced so no time to take my son on holiday. I have one precious week for Christmas and then that is it till April when I get my new allocation of leave. I couldn't afford to have time off if unpaid and couldn't just have time off if the whole class got locked down. There is no back up childcare and no backup furlough scheme.

UnsolicitedDickPic · 12/12/2021 07:33

@ChimChimeny

The money isn't there for furlough

Surely this is the crux of it? Without furlough you can't shut schools/shops/pubs/restaurants and if all those are.open there is no lock down

I think so too - and no lockdown means people will carry on as they see fit. I'm very lucky: I worked throughout the first lockdown after being self-employed (and therefore jobless) at the start of it. My worry now is for my DD, who has missed out on a lot, and my DSD, who is hitting puberty and really struggling with the world as it is now.
Youngatheart00 · 12/12/2021 07:33

My own view is that another lockdown could only be imposed by a new leader. This one has lost all credibility and so many people will be deliberately contrary.

I do fear if omicron spreads as they are predicting though that we will need one in January

cookiemonster2468 · 12/12/2021 07:34

You can't "work it out" because there is no way to work it out.

It's not something you can solve by thinking about it and analysing all of the sources.

We are all having to get used to living with uncertainty at the moment, because that is the nature of viruses. They won't give you a nice timeline stating when they are going to be at their most or least infectious. Nobody has the answers because there aren't any, and anyone who says they do is lying. Scientists can give their best estimates but they can be way out depending on a best/ worst case scenario - we just don't know.

We should all be a bit more flexible and compassionate, because this is not going to change any time soon. And obviously ignore all tabloid newspapers and hype.

Loudestcat14 · 12/12/2021 07:38

I cannot see it happening because it will be really hard to justify. Last time it was because the NHS was struggling and we had no vaccines. This time it would be because the NHS is struggling and we need to protect those still unvaccinated. When so many are refusing to have the vaccine (not including those who can’t for health reasons or phobia but those who are anti) that’s going to be a hard sell to the public. I think the Govt will want to avoid triggering moral debate about enforced vaccines that could split the nation.

JabNotInArm · 12/12/2021 07:41

The only way this won’t happen is if omicron turns out to be mild and not needing hospital treatment. Which, if it does, could spell the end of the pandemic.

I heard this yesterday but I don't understand how without better vaccination rates globally. Won't we just end up with a more deadly variant? Or is the idea that pandemics level off once a variant is as transmissible as possible without being deadly?

MarshaBradyo · 12/12/2021 07:41

Hopefully lack of furlough will stop it happening.

I doubt there’s many who want the start that again

RealBecca · 12/12/2021 07:42

No lockdowns before xmas as torys will worry the hypocrisy for the No10 party last year will lose too many votes.

Then i think it will be action short of a lockdown- so many restrictions that it will basically be a lockdown but without paying furlough. Maybe no non-family mixing in indoor spaces like pubs, work from home, social distancing meaning hospitality venues are at a much lower capacity, bubbles rather than rule of 6 so you would stick within same group.

WarmthAndDepth · 12/12/2021 07:43

I can't even get worked up about it anymore. Cases detected in schools depend on so much: DC1's secondary is rife, with scores of pupils and teachers off in a steady stream since last term, and I suspect this is linked to the fact that they test twice a week, so cases are picked up. In our primary, a stone's throw down the road and attended by many younger siblings of aforementioned secondary school, we've had a smattering of cases since the start of the year: two members of staff (testing twice weekly) but only one pupil. I'm sure it's down to the fact that we're in a deprived area where the logistics and impact on earnings of a younger child having to isolate would be a major problem for most of our families, whereas secondary aged children, if not feeling too rough or non-symptomatic, are more easily left at home. Also, as all our LA schools insist on negative PCR prior to returning to school from an absence for anything resembling covid symptoms, parents just don't report symptoms as it's a real hassle getting to a test centre from where our catchment is, and as many of our parents speak little English, the process for ordering online and returning by post a PCR test, is prohibitively complicated.
I'm just trying to roll with it and do my best to uphold some kind of distancing and hygiene measures to prevent transmission in my classroom.

scaevola · 12/12/2021 07:44

The area which needs the cash right now isn't NHS.

It's social care.

If we could move on those who cannot at present safely be discharged, then it would free up not just beds, but also everything about the patient 'journey' through hospital. So people who need admitting from A&E can be admitted without waiting hours, meaning ambulances can bring their patients in, instead of waiting outside, so ambulances can go and get the next patient, rather than people who need them waiting and waiting at waiting.

When there's a blockage at the exit to a system, then the whole system becaomes clogged and dysfunctional

MatildaIThink · 12/12/2021 07:45

I think Johnson will do a 4-8 week lockdown starting either straight after Christmas or in early January. I don't think this will happen because it needs to, I think it will certainly be ignoring the harms a lockdown does, but I think thr current panic, combined with a need for distraction from the continuing sleaze issues will lead to a lockdown.

Diditreallylookawful · 12/12/2021 07:46

I think schools might close - a thought that fills me with complete dread. But our school has been badly hit and if a new variant means that you can get Covid more easily then it's going to spread even faster. 😞

Blinkingbatshit · 12/12/2021 07:49

Let me start this by saying I really don’t want another lockdown! But, I find the ‘I haven’t seen x, y & z in ages, nothing is stopping me this year’ quite amusing - they’re so important to you that you only bother to visit at Christmas?!!…why haven’t you been in the many months we’ve had with very few restrictions?!!!

Waxonwaxoff0 · 12/12/2021 07:50

Nothing is inevitable. I really don't see why people are panicking about it now when it's still so unclear how Omicron will play out with hospitalisations. There's no justification for one right now.

As for the idea of schools closing earlier, it wouldn't stop the spread to the elderly as those of us who cannot work from home would have to find childcare for our children (e.g. grandparents), we can't all work from home and keep our kids home.

SnailandtheWail · 12/12/2021 07:51

@Blinkingbatshit i expect many people have- but many people also like to see their Danilo at Christmas as well. I saw my family in the summer, again when DS was born a few months ago, and I’ll also be seeing them at Christmas.

Charles11 · 12/12/2021 07:51

Wait until the nhs mandates come into effect and that’ll end up like social care. What will be next?
I work with vulnerable kids and lockdown is the worst thing for them.
There is absolutely no reason for any restrictions currently. They’re intentionally vague and fear mongering without any data to currently back this up.
What is happening to us?

SnailandtheWail · 12/12/2021 07:51

Family. I have no idea what a Damilo is.

HighlandCowbag · 12/12/2021 07:57

I don't think they will close schools, not unless the shit really hits the fan. If schools close, non essential business has to close and that means furlough.

If omicunt is even half as serious as delta we are in trouble, especially if it needs a booster to prevent serious illness. With so many still not taken even 1 vaccine it will have a serious impact on hospital admissions.

But the public won't accept more restrictions until the shit hits the fan, by which time its too late. We won't respond well to graphs of doom this time, it will literally be the bodies piling up.

GiveMeNovocain · 12/12/2021 07:57

It's a care crisis. 10000 beds are currently being used in the system by people who are medically fit to go home but are awaiting a care package. Honestly you could get rid of covid and this won't change. If we lockdown again all that will happen is we'll increase the waiting lists for lockdown health issues, mental illness increasing alcoholism, abuse and issues associated with lack of exercise and overeating. Restrictions and lockdown are a very short term sticking plaster.

If you really want to help the NHS, become a carer.

samsalmon · 12/12/2021 08:00

@Snowywintersundays123

Yanbu- i think lockdown is inevitable, if it prevents deaths it’s a no brainier!

I don’t think there will be riots tho… if there are those involved will be people just jumping on the band wagon of the situation. People who are violent who would always get involved no matter what the situation was.
Protests yes, - there were last time.

Riots are extreme, violent and dangerous. It would be a minority of people who would be involved in them.

I absolutely disagree that a lockdown is a no brainer if it prevents deaths.

Our entire society and all the structures in it are predicated on things flowing and moving in a certain way. Why are all hospitals stuffed to the gills right now? I work in a hospital and currently it’s not because of Covid (that may change depending on how things go with Omicron). It’s because we are seeing the effects of pausing a system that is designed very much on not being paused. So people with late or missed diagnoses, elderly people who have been de conditioned both mentally and physically over several lockdowns, mental health impacts, all the delayed preventative checks and measures that we take a society to ensure a certain level of health. Those are the people now jammed into hospitals. And we’ll be seeing the effects for years. That’s just the direct impacts on hospitals. There’ll be numerous social effects, eg children not picked up by health visitors, whose problems will manifest 5/10/15 years down the line. Educational effects - I won’t even go there. Economic effects, which impact us all. And on and on.

So, for me personally, the measures taken so far have been necessary and largely proportionate. But stopping the flow and movement of your entire society repeatedly? Absolutely not. I think we’ll all pay the price in untold ways for a very long time. Protecting the health service from collapse is a given. But the blunt tool of lockdown is potentially causing more harm than good in the long term.

GoodnightGrandma · 12/12/2021 08:03

There are so many vulnerable children out there, I really hope they don’t shut schools.
For some children school is their only safe space.

Fritilleries · 12/12/2021 08:03

@Loudestcat14

I cannot see it happening because it will be really hard to justify. Last time it was because the NHS was struggling and we had no vaccines. This time it would be because the NHS is struggling and we need to protect those still unvaccinated. When so many are refusing to have the vaccine (not including those who can’t for health reasons or phobia but those who are anti) that’s going to be a hard sell to the public. I think the Govt will want to avoid triggering moral debate about enforced vaccines that could split the nation.
Nah, they'd love that. Plays right into their hand!
lightisnotwhite · 12/12/2021 08:04

@Loudestcat14

I cannot see it happening because it will be really hard to justify. Last time it was because the NHS was struggling and we had no vaccines. This time it would be because the NHS is struggling and we need to protect those still unvaccinated. When so many are refusing to have the vaccine (not including those who can’t for health reasons or phobia but those who are anti) that’s going to be a hard sell to the public. I think the Govt will want to avoid triggering moral debate about enforced vaccines that could split the nation.
Do we want to protect the unvaccinated? I thought natural immunity works getter than the vaccine. They need to catch Covid don’t they? The viral load is likely to be light now and Omicron isn’t a nasty one.
lanbro · 12/12/2021 08:07

The money just isn't there to close businesses and pay furlough and grants again.