Is another lockdown inevitable?

[Flowersandjellybeans]

I just can’t work out whether it’s more likely than not we’ll end up in another lockdown (and when that might be)…

There are multiple articles in all the newspapers, often contradicting each other… I honestly can’t work out what is likely to happen or really even on the table and when it would actually happen?

YANBU = yes, we’ll end up in another lockdown
YABU = no, we won’t have another lockdown

There is so much that needs to change about the NHS (I'm an NHS worker) but nothing will be quick.

We need an immediate solution to the lack of support and care staff which would significantly speed up patient flow.

At this rate, I can see them coming up with some sort of national service forcing people to do stints in health and social care to help. It's all hands on deck to avoid a lockdown it seems and there's no hands left in the NHS now, general public need to come in and help.

What I find weird is that all the positive things from South Africa is dismissed by the Gvt as either antedoctal or that they have higher immunity
Even though we are far higher levels of vaccines and natural immunity must also be quite high (given that we have 3 times the reported number of cases)

@NeedAHoliday2021

I’m so baffled by how differently we are dealing with omicron compared to USA. They are just saying it’s much milder and more like a usual cold so no concerns or surge planning in hospitals. How can the UK be so different?

Yes, makes you wonder what the real reason for the hysteria is.

@Quartz2208

What I find weird is that all the positive things from South Africa is dismissed by the Gvt as either antedoctal or that they have higher immunity Even though we are far higher levels of vaccines and natural immunity must also be quite high (given that we have 3 times the reported number of cases)

I think the MPs do want the data? that’s the issue with the vote for many

@NeedAHoliday2021

I’m so baffled by how differently we are dealing with omicron compared to USA. They are just saying it’s much milder and more like a usual cold so no concerns or surge planning in hospitals. How can the UK be so different?

Their healthcare system is far superior, and they have an enormous country where much of the population lives in huge houses and drives everywhere. Not remotely comparable to the UK, with its dense towns and cities and reliance on public transport and crumbling, underfunded NHS.

The problem isn't that the virus is dangerous, it's that we're so poorly equipped to handle it. I've been trying to explain this to an American friend.

Enough has been said about the unvaccinated by others but I would start to make it difficult for them to do certain things. And I don’t mind vaccine passports either

I agree with this. My DSS is a anti-vaxxing Covid denier, but he'd bloody soon get himself jabbed if he was stopped from going to pubs, clubs and festivals.

He's off to have lunch with his 83 year-old granny today. I like to think he might do an LFT before he goes, but I doubt it. He wouldn't even observe the rules in the first lockdown, or self-isolate back in the first wave when his lodger had Covid.

I heard the health secretary on LBC this morning. He sounds quite nervous about Omicron.
Yes it causes less severe disease, but it is really infectious. So we are likely to get a lot of people infected at the same time. We could have 5 million people infected at the same time.
If only 1% of those people need to go into hospital - that is 50,000 people.

Like I said he sounded worried.

@LakieLady hopefully your dss’ 83 year old granny is vaccinated so she should be fairly safe.

@whyohwhyohwhyohwhywhy

The problem is that lockdown is required because the NHS can't cope, not because covid is causing large numbers of hospitalisations. It is just the straw that broke the camel's back. Social care is the solution in reality, but it takes time and money, and everyone in the sector has known this for years.

I wonder about the relative cost of locking down to protect the NHS from overwhelm is now v. the cost of funding health and social care appropriately for the decades that they haven't been funded adequately.

Last winter lockdown schools didn’t ‘close’ though, they just excluded a portion of the kids. My DC class had over half the children in whilst my child was made to see them all on zoom whilst sat at home. Other schools had close to full classrooms with the minority not allowed in and denied the same education, really can’t allow that to happen again :(

At this rate, I can see them coming up with some sort of national service forcing people to do stints in health and social care to help. It's all hands on deck to avoid a lockdown it seems and there's no hands left in the NHS now, general public need to come in and help.

I've seen this floated as a voluntary thing and I'm mindful of the scale it would take for DBS clearances etc.

Their healthcare system is far superior,

The USA's healthcare system? Pull the other one! Maybe some countries, but NOT the USA, unless you're super-rich.

Their life expectancy is at least two years below ours.

And while it's true that in most states, they make less use of public transport than we do (mainly because they have much less), they certainly don't have that many living in huge houses!

@discoland

Last winter lockdown schools didn’t ‘close’ though, they just excluded a portion of the kids. My DC class had over half the children in whilst my child was made to see them all on zoom whilst sat at home. Other schools had close to full classrooms with the minority not allowed in and denied the same education, really can’t allow that to happen again :(

No that can’t happen again. It’s unethical and unfair. And young children can’t understand why their friends are in school and they aren’t.

We also need social care sorting out to free beds. I think social work is a one year postgrad course? Carers is a 12 week course for the basics

How many people would want to spend another year at college to do a shit job that only pays £24k pa for newly-qualified staff? My 19YO niece earns more than that working in a builders' merchants, and she doesn't run the risk of being vilified in the press and hung out to dry by management if she makes a cock-up.

Many of the people doing the assessments needed to get people discharged from hospital are occupational therapists. That's 4 years to qualify from scratch and the salary is just under £25k. That's less than £13ph, disgracefully low for the responsibility. And then, when they've worked out what people need to be able to manage at home, they have to be able to fund any aids/adaptations required and ongoing care needs.

And all the while people (understandably) don't want to be carers at little more than minimum wage, it won't be possible to meet the care needs of the old, the vulnerable and people with disabilities.

Until the government stops slashing public spending and properly rewards these vital roles to make them more attractive, bed blocking will continue.

@Flamingolingo

I think schools are a main source of transmission right now. Our medium sized primary is absolutely riddled, new positives daily. I hated school closures but I think they should have just ended term on Friday giving two clear weeks until Christmas and thus minimising the likelihood of spreading on Christmas Day. As it stands, Christmas Day is likely to be a superspreader into the older generation and then we will have similar chaos to last January. The only way this won’t happen is if omicron turns out to be mild and not needing hospital treatment. Which, if it does, could spell the end of the pandemic.

Not the case in Scotland, it's the 20-44 age group.

@whyohwhyohwhyohwhywhy

The problem is that lockdown is required because the NHS can't cope, not because covid is causing large numbers of hospitalisations. It is just the straw that broke the camel's back. Social care is the solution in reality, but it takes time and money, and everyone in the sector has known this for years.

Numbers in hospital and ICU in Scotland are the lowest they've been in months when there was no 'lockdown' chat 🤷🏻‍♀️

[quote Charles11]@LakieLady hopefully your dss’ 83 year old granny is vaccinated so she should be fairly safe.[/quote]
Indeed she is, triple-jabbed! But it doesn't work against Omicron and at 83 even something mild can be serious ifykwim.

I'm not going, because I have a cold and don't want to give it to her. If nothing else, catching a cold could spoil her Christmas.

@LakieLady why do you say being triple jabbed doesn't work against Omicron? It most definitely does. It's not 100% but it's a very good level of protection.

Your DSS still sounds awful, though.

Inevitable? I think so, and probably end of January / early February the way things are going. But whether it will be with the same restrictions as the first one is anybody's guess. Because they already know that people will flout the rules, there is no point in bringing in regulations that are unenforceable. They also know that there are many industries (restaurants and theatres for instance) that are already on their knees, and another full lockdown will finish them off for good.

[quote megustalacerveza]@LakieLady why do you say being triple jabbed doesn't work against Omicron? It most definitely does. It's not 100% but it's a very good level of protection.

Your DSS still sounds awful, though.[/quote]
I didn't think it did. And my double-jabbed (but not yet called for her booster) SIL is ill with Covid as we speak. She's waiting for a PCR result to see if it's Omicron.

Being triple jabbed does work against Omicron, it's been reported. Double jabbed not so good.

@LakieLady early reports say about 75% effective against any symptomatic infection. Protection against severe disease and death likely to be much higher. Double jabbed is much less protection, which is why the gov are pushing for people to get boosted asap.

There you go again. Using the USA system as the end goal

Huh?? I said the US doesn't have an NHS to profit from selling, which is true, but that doesn't mean I regard their system as any sort of "goal" - far from it in fact

Fortunately there are plenty of alternatives without going the US route, but we're certainly agreed that change is urgently needed. What worries me is that no matter what's selected, the MPs' main motivation will be to profit personally rather than deliver something which works properly for the rest of us

Why are people so terrified of catching covid if all double/ triple vaccinated?. Why do some say my parents won’t survive covid why ? Do they have underlying health conditions? Or are they reasonably well and fit . I would really like to see the statistics that people who are double vaccinated who are reasonably well are dying . For that no way am I locking down for those people it’s insane to even suggest such a thing of closing schools / industry’s for your 90 year old granny who has how many Christmas left ? who I’m sure if you asked her would not want to miss seeing family nor would she want anyone to stop living . Sorry if it’s selfish but that shipped sailed long ago.

@LittleDandelionClock

There better bastard NOT be another lockdown. We are mostly vaccinated now, so why on earth would we/SHOULD we have one?

Like I said on a thread yesterday, what the F was the point of getting triple vaccinated if they are just going to force us to stay in for several months again?

What's the point in another lockdown? To protect the unvaccinated? Not likely matey. The fact that the vast, VAST majority of unvaccinated people are unvaccinated by choice, means they can take their chances!

I call it natural selection.

so you think the unvaccinated should die in a process called " natural selection" given that they have not had a manmade vaccine? What a vile post