Good news re Omicron

[Tryingtryingandtrying]

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468985784338366468?t=0RA5_V7CWbGjhgxfNIDbAQ&s=19

All looking pretty positive.

And lfts for all to reduce risk in certain venues would make far more sense than giving potentially infected people a pass simply because they’ve had a vaccine.
In theory, yes. In practice, no, as there's no proof who's taken the test. The same way youngsters can present false ID to enter nightclubs while underage.

Currently lfts are accepted for unvaccinated people. So if you think people are faking it and we know that vaccinated people can still have the virus, what is any of this actually going to achieve except destroying parts of the hospitality industry any further?

TBH i think passports are kind of pointless with a variant which is evasive of vaccines and has a very short incubation period of 2 days. BOTH vaccines and lft within 48hrs are much less useful as means to 'proving' you are covid free.

The latest from John Burn Murdoch is cautious. But some reason for optimism in there too
twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338725658341381

In completely unrelated news, this just happened...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-59613507
York and Scarborough hospitals moved to highest level of alert

Two North Yorkshire hospitals have been put on the highest level of alert due to "sustained" pressure.

York and Scarborough Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust said "significantly increased" demand for A&E services has left them "unable to deliver comprehensive care".

It said measures to prevent the spread of Covid and "lack of capacity" in social care were partly to blame.

The Trust has warned patients attending A&E to expect long delays.

[quote RedToothBrush]TBH i think passports are kind of pointless with a variant which is evasive of vaccines and has a very short incubation period of 2 days. BOTH vaccines and lft within 48hrs are much less useful as means to 'proving' you are covid free.

The latest from John Burn Murdoch is cautious. But some reason for optimism in there too
twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338725658341381[/quote]
It's not 'evasive of vaccines', for God's sake. 3 x Pfizer gives a 75% chance of not getting a symptomatic infection AT ALL and is almost certain to protect against severe infection and death.

If in your mind that means vaccine passports are useless, there's no helping you. The latest statistics only support the fact that vaccines are essential now more than ever.

megustalacerveza is a long-time poster who is always measured and knowledgeable even if I don't always necessarily agree with every they say.
There is no need at all to be rude to them.

@RedToothBrush “TBH i think passports are kind of pointless”

So we agree on that at least . I’ve started following John Burn Murdoch recently. I agree that there is some optimism there - thankfully!

@MaxNormal

megustalacerveza is a long-time poster who is always measured and knowledgeable even if I don't always necessarily agree with every they say. There is no need at all to be rude to them.

Spreading misinformation is dangerous and irresponsible. Saying the virus is 'evasive of vaccines' and that vaccine passports are therefore pointless, when in fact vaccines provide extremely good protection against any symptoms, let alone serious illness or death, is completely unacceptable.

I'd say these latest developments only highlight the importance of vaccines, and it's in fact testing that will become pointless. We're likely going to have to move to a model of doing everything possible to avoid an infection in the first place (vaccines, masks, distancing) but accepting that they will still happen and it's a risk we need to live with. Being vaccinated means your chances of not ending up in hospital are fantastic.

38.6% of the population have had three jabs.

What's the likely level of protection conferred on those who have had two or only one shot?

Even if it's milder for almost everyone, the fact it's far more transmissable is a serious problem for a country with a crumbling health service. A small percentage of a very large number is enough to overload hospitals

I don't understand this. Flu and colds can cause lots of people to go into hospital. I don't see the difference between a milder version of covid and the flu?

Ok. 'more evasive' of this variant than others

And passports are 'much less effective' to the point that it kind of defeats the objective you are trying to achieve and may lull people into a false sense of security that they are 'safe' at a venue which has passports.

I just don't see the merit. If things are that bad, close things. Don't put in half arsed procedures that are doomed to run into a shit load of problems.

It'll undermine public trust in measures being implemented, if you get a shedload of newspaper stories of big events that have covid outbreaks.

I notice tonight that its being reported that its been green lighted that football stadiums will be able to spot check rather than check everyone for a passport if the ground is experiencing crowds bunching up at entrances.

So whats the fucking point?

I don't think this has really been thought about.

I genuinely think its a waste of time thats going to end up a mess.

I am entitled to that opinion. Since passports are widely untested against omicron, there isn't information either way to suggest effectiveness so how can it be spreading misinformation?

I'm going off understanding how omicron is behaving and how that creates issues...

3 x Pfizer gives a 75% chance of not getting a symptomatic infection AT ALL

not much help for people who had 2 x AZ and are some way off their booster

FWIW this week alone I've heard of 5 people I know personally being neg on lft but coming up positive on pcrs (they are households with a positive lft which was also confirmed as positive).

If the incubation period of omicron is shorter so you have more people able to infect others quicker this is an issue. The window for a lft is 48 hours - but if you can catch and incubate omicron within 48 hours - thats a bit of an issue.

I don't get why thats a controversial thing to point out and ask some bloody big questions about.

I also don't get why its controversial to ask why we are trusting vaccine passports if you are much more likely to get omicron anyway. Just how much of an issue could that be?

I don't understand this. Flu and colds can cause lots of people to go into hospital. I don't see the difference between a milder version of covid and the flu?

Colds are (generally, for nothing is slam dunk in biology!) unproblematic and generally do not lead to hospital admissions except in the highly immune suppressed (eg those with certain forms of blood cancer)

Flu is a major problem, and causes huge stresses annually.

@fakereview

Even if it's milder for almost everyone, the fact it's far more transmissable is a serious problem for a country with a crumbling health service. A small percentage of a very large number is enough to overload hospitals

I don't understand this. Flu and colds can cause lots of people to go into hospital. I don't see the difference between a milder version of covid and the flu?

If you released a brand new form of flu that was exactly as dangerous as a normal winter strain but super contagious and with a very quick spread from person to person and released it on a population with no immunity the hospital system would collapse within a couple of months. Because everyone would get it so quickly that a the tiny proportion of people getting very sick all hitting the hospitals at once would be disastrous.

A reasonable set of assumptions based on what we know about Omicron results in a manageable total number of people hospitalised in this wave, but the problem is that a disproportionate share of them might hit A&E within just a few weeks.

The main aim of vaccine passports seems to be to be encourage people to get vaccinated... but if you need three jabs to be reasonably protected from Omicron, then Mr X who reluctantly decides to get his first jab next week will not be fully vaccinated until May. Which isn't much help.

@RedToothBrush

Ok. 'more evasive' of this variant than others

And passports are 'much less effective' to the point that it kind of defeats the objective you are trying to achieve and may lull people into a false sense of security that they are 'safe' at a venue which has passports.

I just don't see the merit. If things are that bad, close things. Don't put in half arsed procedures that are doomed to run into a shit load of problems.

It'll undermine public trust in measures being implemented, if you get a shedload of newspaper stories of big events that have covid outbreaks.

I notice tonight that its being reported that its been green lighted that football stadiums will be able to spot check rather than check everyone for a passport if the ground is experiencing crowds bunching up at entrances.

So whats the fucking point?

I don't think this has really been thought about.

I genuinely think its a waste of time thats going to end up a mess.

I am entitled to that opinion. Since passports are widely untested against omicron, there isn't information either way to suggest effectiveness so how can it be spreading misinformation?

I'm going off understanding how omicron is behaving and how that creates issues...

You seem to think 'vaccines' and 'passports' are the same thing. The concept of a vaccine passport is still a good infection control measure even if the vaccines it certifies aren't quite as effective against a new strain than they were against the previous one.

Three vaccines provide up to 75% protection against getting sick in the first place, let alone getting hospitalised or dying. The goal isn't to stop covid spreading, the goal is to reduce the number of people going into hospital with it, with is the only thing we need to be concerned about.

Yes, you WILL read about outbreaks at events where vaccines were needed, because covid is highly transmissible, and as I've just said, the vaccines aren't 100% protective. The question is, how many of those people went into hospital or died? If the answer is zero then fantastic! The vaccine passports are working. Now, some people may still die. Does that mean the passports are useless? No! How many people would have died if they hadn't been vaccinated? How many people would have got really sick? It's not about reducing the risk to zero, it's about reducing it to a more manageable level that allows all of us to get on with our lives while not collapsing the healthcare system.

Why do you seem determined to 'close things' because of a virus which isn't going anywhere? Why should we all be locked down because some people don't want to get jabbed? I want to carry on with my life, thanks very much. If Joe Bloggs has chosen not to get vaccinated and feels sad that he can't go clubbing now, well, that's his lookout. We need to move on, and vaccines are a big part of that. We cannot keep closing down the entire country every time there's a wave or a new variant. That's a fact.

@RoseAndRose

38.6% of the population have had three jabs.

What's the likely level of protection conferred on those who have had two or only one shot?

Early reports (look on Twitter) show that there is little protection from symptomatic infection from 2 shots of Pfizer and almost none from 2 shots of AZ, but the sample size was very small. It also may not be as alarming as it sounds because 'symptomatic infection' could be a runny nose and sneezing a bit. We won't know on a wider scale how the virus has progressed in those infected for a couple more weeks.

If I had only had 2 jabs, I'd be clamouring for my booster right now, that's for sure. It seems that the level of protection is more than double.

@fakereview

3 x Pfizer gives a 75% chance of not getting a symptomatic infection AT ALL

not much help for people who had 2 x AZ and are some way off their booster

People who had 2 x AZ shouldn't be way off their booster because it was only given to over 40s and younger people who were jabbed early through being vulnerable. Anyone in these categories would now be at or very close to 6 months post second jab. I would be very surprised if they were turned away at a walk-in.

Posted by an epidemiologist just now on Twitter:

“Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.”

@RedToothBrush

FWIW this week alone I've heard of 5 people I know personally being neg on lft but coming up positive on pcrs (they are households with a positive lft which was also confirmed as positive).

If the incubation period of omicron is shorter so you have more people able to infect others quicker this is an issue. The window for a lft is 48 hours - but if you can catch and incubate omicron within 48 hours - thats a bit of an issue.

I don't get why thats a controversial thing to point out and ask some bloody big questions about.

I also don't get why its controversial to ask why we are trusting vaccine passports if you are much more likely to get omicron anyway. Just how much of an issue could that be?

I'm not sure why you're using the word 'controversial'. It's not controversial. It just makes no sense.

It's not at all unusual for people to be negative on LFT and positive on PCRs. It never was. LFTs are less reliable.

Yes, it is an issue that the incubation period of omicron is shorter. All the more reason to get vaccinated to lower your chances of getting it in the first place.

I have no idea what your last question even means. 'You are much more likely to get omicron anyway'. More likely than what? You're a lot less likely to get it than someone who hasn't been vaccinated, that's for sure!

@JoanOgden

The main aim of vaccine passports seems to be to be encourage people to get vaccinated... but if you need three jabs to be reasonably protected from Omicron, then Mr X who reluctantly decides to get his first jab next week will not be fully vaccinated until May. Which isn't much help.

But it is SOME help. Actually quite a lot of help.

This is the thing people need to remember. It's not an all or nothing approach.

If Mr X is 30% protected against infection, and almost fully protected against severe outcomes or death, after just one or two jabs, then that's a massive win. Mr X's chances of getting very sick are dying are now far lower than they would be if he wasn't vaccinated at all. A win for Mr X and a win for the NHS.

It's absolutely not a situation where anyone should be thinking "there's no point in bothering to get jabbed if the first two aren't as effective." I wish this fact was being pushed a bit harder by the scientists.

You seem to think 'vaccines' and 'passports' are the same thing.

Actually I think you’re the one who seems to think this. We know that vaccines reduce the risk of serious illness/hospitalisation. The vaccine passports do not. They simply allow potentially infected people to enter a crowded venue without testing.

@bumbleymummy

You seem to think 'vaccines' and 'passports' are the same thing.

Actually I think you’re the one who seems to think this. We know that vaccines reduce the risk of serious illness/hospitalisation. The vaccine passports do not. They simply allow potentially infected people to enter a crowded venue without testing.

Are you on a wind up?

You read my post and that's what you've come back with?

Yep.

These parts in particular make you look very confused between what vaccines do and what vaccine passports are supposed to do.

“ The goal isn't to stop covid spreading, the goal is to reduce the number of people going into hospital with it”

“ Yes, you WILL read about outbreaks at events where vaccines were needed, because covid is highly transmissible, and as I've just said, the vaccines aren't 100% protective. The question is, how many of those people went into hospital or died? If the answer is zero then fantastic! The vaccine passports are working. Now, some people may still die. Does that mean the passports are useless? No! How many people would have died if they hadn't been
vaccinated?”