65% of hospitalisations are vaccinated.

[Twotone]

fullfact.org/health/economist-vaccination-status/?s=09

@ichundich linked a couple of times upthread. Here it is again. Over 80% of people in icu have a BMI>25

[quote bumbleymummy]@pointythings

“At a BMI of more than 23 kg/m2, we found a linear increase in risk of severe COVID-19 leading to admission to hospital and death, and a linear increase in admission to an ICU across the whole BMI range, which is not attributable to excess risks of related diseases. The relative risk due to increasing BMI is particularly notable people younger than 40 years and of Black ethnicity.”

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213858721000899

And I’ve already explained why it makes sense to target specific groups when the aim is to reduce hospital numbers.[/quote]
Everyone has been offered the vaccine which includes the tubbies so there is no exscuse and your constant drone about BMI is a waste of time and draws the point away from getting as many as possible vaccinated.

What do you think the purpose is of ‘getting as many people as possible vaccinated’ actually is? We are trying to reduce pressure on the NHS. Why do you think we prioritised the elderly/vulnerable? Because they were the most likely to end up in hospital. Now it is clear that there is another vulnerable group that is at increased risk of hospitalisation. So it makes sense to address that.

It only makes sense to target those with a high BMI if there is a shortage of vaccines (there isn't), or it's easy and quick to identify those with a high BMI (it isn't - it would take ages and use a lot of resources).

So while an additional layer of targeting above the existing targeting by age, clinical vulnerability and occupation maybe beneficial to a small number of people, the cost of that extra layer of targeting will be very high for the rest of the population.

@titchy I was actually suggesting a campaign to highlight that BMI >25 is a risk factor, even if you’re young. Clearly if the majority of people in icu are unvaccinated (relatively) young people with high BMIs, the message hasn’t quite got through.

@titchy

It only makes sense to target those with a high BMI if there is a shortage of vaccines (there isn't), or it's easy and quick to identify those with a high BMI (it isn't - it would take ages and use a lot of resources).

So while an additional layer of targeting above the existing targeting by age, clinical vulnerability and occupation maybe beneficial to a small number of people, the cost of that extra layer of targeting will be very high for the rest of the population.

This. Far better to target everyone who hasn't had the vaccine. For whatever reason that isn't medical exemption. Everyone needs to do what they can to slow the spread - get jabbed, social distance, work from home, wear masks. No opt outs other than for genuine medical reasons. 'I don't want to' was never good enough.

You are being utterly illogical bumbley

You are proposing measures which have not been medically substantiated, which give others an excuse to refuse the vaccine (“I’m think I don’t need it”) and will take time and resource which we don’t have.

We need to be encouraging everyone to get their jabs, not trying to shift the blame from the poorly-educated anti-vaxxers who are overwhelming the ICUs.

Ok. Clearly some people have decided not to be vaccinated, whether you like it or not. They may think that because they are young, they are safe. I think that a campaign that highlights BMI > 25 as a risk, even if you are young, may encourage people to have the vaccine and would reduce hospitalisations. I’m not sure why you think continuing to target everyone, as we have been doing for months, is actually going to encourage those who have not had the vaccine yet to have it. I think we need to highlight that, based on the current data, we can see that this group is another ‘at risk’ group.

Actually @Scautish my very point is to educate those ‘poorly educated anti-vaxxers’ that their BMI puts them at increased risk and having the vaccine would reduce that.

@bumbleymummy

Ok. Clearly some people have decided not to be vaccinated, whether you like it or not. They may think that because they are young, they are safe. I think that a campaign that highlights BMI > 25 as a risk, even if you are young, may encourage people to have the vaccine and would reduce hospitalisations. I’m not sure why you think continuing to target everyone, as we have been doing for months, is actually going to encourage those who have not had the vaccine yet to have it. I think we need to highlight that, based on the current data, we can see that this group is another ‘at risk’ group.

Because targeting everyone is much more cost effective, a better use of time and resources.

A separate advertising campaign for those with high BMI merely suggests to those with a healthy BMI that they don't really need to bother, or at least not to prioritise it. That will mean Covid continues to spread, and will thus do more harm than good.

Ok titchy, how is your plan any different to what we’ve been doing for several months now and has resulted in a disproportionate number of unvaccinated people with BMIs > 25 in ICU?

And yet you remain illogical.

ALL the poorly-educated anti-vaxxers need to encouraged to get the vaccine - fat, thin, young, old.

You are making up statistics to suit your anti-vaxx narrative. You are not qualified to be giving advice which contradicts genuine medical experts and absolutely no-one should listen to you.

Are there any statistics? How many people are vaccinated, and unvaccinated?
How many people in hospital now because of covid are unvaccinated?
Do they have a legitimate reason, like CEV, or just 'don't want it'.

I actually would like to know. With rumours of Boris making further restrictions, I'd be hacked off of my Christmas gets cancelled again just because of covid vaccination 'don't want to'er's?

@bumbleymummy

Ok titchy, how is your plan any different to what we’ve been doing for several months now and has resulted in a disproportionate number of unvaccinated people with BMIs > 25 in ICU?

You've not understood my point - targeting those with high BMIs would have saved a few of those currently in ICU, it would have cost many more healthy BMI people being in ICU.

Save 10, but 100 have to die, or save 100, while 10 have to die. Blunt, but that's basically it.

Back when I was backpacking in Australia, I worked with two blokes who argued with me about how unfair it was they weren't allowed to drink then drive because statistics proved that the majority of people causing accidents wrote sober.

Which was a crappy use of statistics that omitted the fact the vast majority of the population weren't stupid enough to drive after drinking.

Stats work both ways as has been said upthread. No pro vaxxer was complaining when The Economist quoted its earlier percentages subsequently corrected by Full Fact were they?

Yes, the vaccines work. As a % of their total number more unvaxxed are in hospital.

However (imho) the differential is NOT enough to make vaccinations mandatory. There are plenty of other life ‘choice’ issues that also place a burden on the NHS. So, you’d be opening a can of worms. Plus, these people have paid NI, tax on their vices etc.

Also. ITU is not overwhelmed & neither are hospital beds atm. Even with a backlog of old people to offload.

@SatsumasRock

Back when I was backpacking in Australia, I worked with two blokes who argued with me about how unfair it was they weren't allowed to drink then drive because statistics proved that the majority of people causing accidents wrote sober.

Which was a crappy use of statistics that omitted the fact the vast majority of the population weren't stupid enough to drive after drinking.

Great analogy @SatsumasRock!

ITU

Scautish, I haven’t given advice, I’ve expressed my opinion. I haven’t made up statistics, I’ve linked to the data that shows over 80% of people in icu have a BMI>25.

@titchy “ You've not understood my point - targeting those with high BMIs would have saved a few of those currently in ICU, it would have cost many more healthy BMI people being in ICU.”

Do you think I’m suggesting that we should have ever only targeted people with a high BMI? I’m not saying that at all. I’m saying that now we have recognised a specific subgroup of unvaccinated people who are more likely to end up in ICU, we should address it directly. Targeting the message to get vaccinated at everyone has still resulted in a significant number of hospitalisations in unvaccinated people with high BMIs so it may be time to try a different approach.

Why do you think it would cost more healthy people in icu? People with healthy BMIs make up

@Scautish

And yet you remain illogical.

ALL the poorly-educated anti-vaxxers need to encouraged to get the vaccine - fat, thin, young, old.

You are making up statistics to suit your anti-vaxx narrative. You are not qualified to be giving advice which contradicts genuine medical experts and absolutely no-one should listen to you.

This.

And people here do listen to you, trust you, and believe you.

Ok. Clearly some people have decided not to be vaccinated

In no small part thanks to being scared off by anti vaxx disinformation.

Add in the UK's more hesitant than most other countries around the world stance on vaccine passes... and there you go. Vaccine bookings shot right up in Europe and elsewhere after they announced measures including vaccine passes and mandatory vaccines for particular jobs (like working with the vulnerable).

And before anyone screams freeeedom, the more sensible policies around vaccine passes offer the alternative option of showing a negative test before entrance to public places - restaurants, bars, shops, etc.

[quote bumbleymummy]Scautish, I haven’t given advice, I’ve expressed my opinion. I haven’t made up statistics, I’ve linked to the data that shows over 80% of people in icu have a BMI>25.

@titchy “ You've not understood my point - targeting those with high BMIs would have saved a few of those currently in ICU, it would have cost many more healthy BMI people being in ICU.”

Do you think I’m suggesting that we should have ever only targeted people with a high BMI? I’m not saying that at all. I’m saying that now we have recognised a specific subgroup of unvaccinated people who are more likely to end up in ICU, we should address it directly. Targeting the message to get vaccinated at everyone has still resulted in a significant number of hospitalisations in unvaccinated people with high BMIs so it may be time to try a different approach.

Why do you think it would cost more healthy people in icu? People with healthy BMIs make up

Anyway targeting high BMI isn't hugely different from targeting the majority.

More than 50% of us in the UK are overweight (I suspect linked to the declining smoking rates).

Oh - and also high bmi is not the only risk factor. Not for SARS-Cov-2, nor for diseases like diabetes type 2. It's just one particular risk factor.

Also. ITU is not overwhelmed & neither are hospital beds atm.

Yet. The predicted growth in cases from omicron - even if it's generally milder - may change that all too rapidly.