Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Central Beds had an increase of 2000 cases last week....

Thank you @Lockheart and @Firefliess :)

@Piggywaspushed

Central Beds had an increase of 2000 cases last week....

Central Beds has been high for months. Unlike London they never had much of a fall. I don't think Omicron has hit there yet.

Ok sorry if it's been asked before but if omicron is different to usual pattern of covid can you catch delta and omicron at the same time!

Re: South and East London - I am pretty sure what we are seeing here now is the Omicron wave. Barking and Dagenham, for instance, was pretty much shielded during the Delta surge given its high level of acquired immunity from the Alpha wave. The rapid growth of cases this week follows a very different pattern.

I just checked AlasdairGrant4's latest figures for Central Bedfordshire. He has the R0 rate at 1.04, and cases 705/100k. So they have remained high rather than currently rocketing.

Reading in the Guardian that a booster gives a out 70 to 75 protection against Omicron. I'm wondering how much that will translate to serious cases in the elderly?

@wintertravel1980

Re: South and East London - I am pretty sure what we are seeing here now is the Omicron wave. Barking and Dagenham, for instance, was pretty much shielded during the Delta surge given its high level of acquired immunity from the Alpha wave. The rapid growth of cases this week follows a very different pattern.

Vaccination rates are very very low in some of these areas. Where I am it's over 20% below the national average. So would expect everyone who mixes and hasn't had it yet will now get it.

spec date graphic for England

@peridito

Firefliess If Omicron can reinfect people who've had Delta and it seems likely to be that Delta will also reinfect people who've had Omicron,

why are we thinking that people who've had Omicron might go on to get Delta ?

Because the fact that people who've had Delta can catch Omicron means that the two strains are sufficiently different that having had one doesn't enable your immune system to recognise the other (at least not quickly enough to stop you catching it) I can't see any reason why we'd expect this to be asymmetric - it would be odd biologically if catching Omicron gave protection against Delta but not vice versa. But Delta is very low in South Africa (pretty much burnt out) and everywhere else is too early on with Omicron to tell. As to whether you can catch both at once, I'm not sure, but can't quite see why not.

So would expect everyone who mixes and hasn't had it yet will now get it.

I am afraid even people who had it already are likely to get it again.

Hopefully, they will have “mild” cases as described by the SA doctors.

*Because the fact that people who've had Delta can catch Omicron means that the two strains are sufficiently different that having had one doesn't enable your immune system to recognise the other (at least not quickly enough to stop you catching it) I can't see any reason why we'd expect this to be asymmetric - it would be odd biologically if catching Omicron gave protection against Delta but not vice versa. But Delta is very low in South Africa (pretty much burnt out) and everywhere else is too early on with Omicron to tell. As to whether you can catch both at once, I'm not sure, but can't quite see why not^

Firefliess thank you ,I sort of wondered that but wasn't sure .

And @Imdreamingofapeacefulxmas above also answers your query I think .

Thank you all for being so generous with your time and going over stuff for people like me!

@manolantern

I just checked AlasdairGrant4's latest figures for Central Bedfordshire. He has the R0 rate at 1.04, and cases 705/100k. So they have remained high rather than currently rocketing.

I got the 2000 cases direct from C Beds council for last week..

Yes thank you

Bollocks, keep saying it wrong. I don't even drink sherry. Has risen to over 2000 cases is what I meant. South Northants is in big trouble. Brackley outbreak. MK also quite high.

COVID-19 cases reach record high and first Omicron case confirmed locally
Over the last week (week ending 8 December), new cases of COVID-19 in Central Bedfordshire have gone up by 445 to 2,179, the highest number ever recorded here (740.9 cases per 100,000) with rates currently highest among 5-10 year olds and 40-49 year olds. Sadly there were 5 deaths in the last reporting week

The first estimate of VE against symptomatic infections for Omicron (2 doses + booster) is 71-75%:

twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1469350543172771852

[quote wintertravel1980]The first estimate of VE against symptomatic infections for Omicron (2 doses + booster) is 71-75%:

twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1469350543172771852[/quote]
That's not bad really is it? I got my booster a week ago today so sounds like I'm now better protected against Omicron than I was a week ago against Delta (except the fact that not everyone is boosted yet will of course means Omicron spreads faster)

I agree - it is pretty good!

I suppose delay a little bit whilst booster rolls out quickly seems to be the plan?

Then high numbers I guess

@EducatingArti

Reading in the Guardian that a booster gives a out 70 to 75 protection against Omicron. I'm wondering how much that will translate to serious cases in the elderly?

I'm slightly cynical that this is nothing more than propaganda, there are a lot of shoulds in that article, plus a very small sample size, only 581 double jabbed people and an undisclosed amount of boostered. Of those boostered, no mention of their age or vulnerability, plus we know omicron is more prevalent in the younger age group atm who would have better natural immunity.

Are these immunity calculations based on the manufacturers 3 week dosing schedule for the initial course or our 8 -12 week during schedule which supposedly gives better protection 🤔

@manolantern

Rank Area Rate R 1 Hackney and City of London 518 1.30 2 Barking and Dagenham 494 1.29 3 Southwark 563 1.29 4 Lewisham 591 1.27 5 Lambeth 591 1.24

Posting this because I live in Lewisham and wondering whether to go to the nearest shops which are in Southwark :).

Lewisham too. Nice to see we are top of the charts.

Just thinking about the comments up thread regarding omicron and delta and reinfection and it's making my head spin. I just saw on Twitter in London 30% of cases are omicron numbers have been rising in London recently (is that correct?). I'm wondering if we could see a dual wave, rather than one outcompeting the other. How can we start to discern that? Will we be looking for a proportionate decline in delta numbers as omicron rises to see if it squeezes delta out?

Is it correct reinfections are not counted in daily case numbers? If natural immunity isn't protective against omicron, is this recorded separately somewhere?

What kind of volume of PCRs can we process, that will affect reporting of growth if the numbers run into 6/7 figures, right?