Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Do all these estimates of infection and hospitalisations and deaths, take into account the booster uptake though. I honestly can't see how we are going to get to such high numbers with the high proportion of the adult population being boosted, and those mostly at risk of dying still being 80+, how deaths are magically going to increase so substantially unless they are all going to be in the middle aged, which is also unlikely.

Probably a very silly question, but if Omicron cases a day were at (plucks figure out air) 50k, would we still have the circa 45k cases a day from delta so total 95k cases a day, or will the delta cases drop (as omicron takes over) so we’ll still only have the 50k a day?

@perdito I feel your pain . I’m often looking at the graphs and thinking but what does it all mean!!!

It’s interesting looking at South Africa and it’s wonderful they have so much data available however they have a vaccination rate of 25% which is vastly different , as well as a different demographic .

@BanditoShipman

Probably a very silly question, but if Omicron cases a day were at (plucks figure out air) 50k, would we still have the circa 45k cases a day from delta so total 95k cases a day, or will the delta cases drop (as omicron takes over) so we’ll still only have the 50k a day?

If Omicron out-competes delta in terms of transmissibility then as Omicron rises you would expect to see delta fall, however whether it would be this neat is another matter. Overall it is possible (even probable?) that we would see a general upwards trend in cases, especially if Omicron has a high chance of re-infecting those who have already had covid, or if it has a high chance of infecting the vaccinated.

If Omicron can reinfect people who've had Delta and it seems likely to be that Delta will also reinfect people who've had Omicron, so we'll have both going at once with not a lot of out competing going on. Though any measures we take to pull cases down will of course with for both variants

Nearly 60k today.

Cases up about 10% week on week, as noted by boys yesterday in reverse a disproportionately high number added to Tuesday, so it looks like some reporting delay there.

So averaging over the two days a smaller increase (yesterday was down remember) but still an increase.

LFD's not up as much as PCRs I think

Has anyone been running a positivity rate by date of test against specimen date? Has this been rising, or staying fairly static with the increase in tests?

@BigWoollyJumpers

Has anyone been running a positivity rate by date of test against specimen date? Has this been rising, or staying fairly static with the increase in tests?

Sorry - Found it! Under England stats.

But if catching up for England at least for Tuesday spec dates, although that leaves Tuesday this week 0.7% higher than the position for Tuesday last week as reported this time last Friday.

The biggest growth area in England continues, at a regional level, to be London.

bit rather than but and of as opposed to if

bit of catching up....... it should have read.

Morale of the story - avoid the one for me, one for you approach with the sherry for the trifle.

Friday dashboard Seven day average

Positive cases +10.2%
Tests +12.6%
Deaths no change
Hospital admissions +3.7%

Increasing cases looks likely but hospitalisations and deaths still way lower than this time last year

UKHSA report:

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469350830864322560

Checking in

Update from John Burn-Murdoch.:
Conclusions
• Rate of Omicron cases resulting in severe disease is lower than past waves
• But this is due in large part to dilution of that ratio due to mild cases in vaxxed & recovered
• Numbers with severe disease are lower than past waves but rising, and will keep climbing

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338725658341381

30% of Covid cases in London are Covid, already.

• Michael Gove quoted on R4 just now.

"are Omicron, already."

Firefliess If Omicron can reinfect people who've had Delta and it seems likely to be that Delta will also reinfect people who've had Omicron,

why are we thinking that people who've had Omicron might go on to get Delta ?

Comports thanks to note that 95% of Scottish swabs are tested for SGTF, therefore the reason for their seemingly high rates compared to England and Wales is simply that we’re not testing 50-70% of our swabs for it.

*Important to note

and I should have written “may well simply be” rather than “is simply”.

@boys3

bit rather than but and of as opposed to if

bit of catching up....... it should have read.

Morale of the story - avoid the one for me, one for you approach with the sherry for the trifle.

Have you all been at boy's sherry???

@Piggywaspushed

Have you all been at boy's sherry???

Not yet, but it is Friday night...

Area Rate R Region Rank
Hackney and City of London 518 1.30 London 1
Barking and Dagenham 494 1.29 London 2
Southwark 563 1.29 London 3
Lewisham 591 1.27 London 4
Lambeth 591 1.24 London 5

archive.uea.ac.uk/~e130/R.html

Rank Area Rate R
1 Hackney and City of London 518 1.30
2 Barking and Dagenham 494 1.29
3 Southwark 563 1.29
4 Lewisham 591 1.27
5 Lambeth 591 1.24

Posting this because I live in Lewisham and wondering whether to go to the nearest shops which are in Southwark :).