@Bluepinkyellowcakes
Fox you say the booster raises protection to near 95% and I've seen that figure elsewhere too. Genuinely wondering how that works, if most people's natural protection from death is around 99% anyway without a jab?
Taking this at face value:
It's really useful in circumstances like these to put some actual numbers in.
Let's say we do a trial on 50,000 people. 25k get the vaccine, 25k don't. These will be matched groups - for age, sex and known risk factors.
Imaginarily 5,000 of them get Covid.
If 2,500 were vaccinated and 2,500 weren't, then we'd say the vaccination wasn't effective.
If 500 were vaccinated, and 4500 weren't we'd say the vaccine was (4500-500)/4500 = 88% effective. You'd be nearly 10x less likely to catch symptomatic Covid having been vaccinated.
In this instance it's actually 95% effective. So more like 4,750 in the unvaccinated group and 250 in the vaccinated.
You can then apply the same logic to deaths.
The above (statistical work on trial data) also tells us that we know that the vaccine (not just people choosing to be healthier/a milder strain) is what has reduced the death rates - because we have vaccinated Vs unvaccinated comparison groups.
Finally, to address another of the points you made about a low death rate: if a disease spreads to the point that everyone either catches it or is vaccinated you have essentially a 100% chance of catching the disease over a given time period (X). That means over that time period you then have (using your numbers) a 1/100 chance of dying of the disease.
Yet by taking the vaccination you can actually reduce that to a 1/2,000 chance. If we pretend we have no idea what Covid is but that we know going out and doing things we enjoy has a 1/100 chance of killing us but through 3 injections et can cut that 20 fold, most people would think that sounded like a pretty good deal.
That's the same logic we use for seatbelts. (And, incidentally childhood vaccinations - measles only has a death rate of 1/100 ish, you don't see many people suggesting measles vaccinations are a bad idea.)