New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

“ What? With no idea what we are dealing with or the impact slowing it run rampant may have?

Great strategic thinking there. Let's at least learn the lessons of the early days of last year.”

Except if we’re to learn the lesson from the past few years, it is that travel restrictions didn’t do much useful.

They did stop people moving. But didn’t stop the virus circulating.

This time we’ve acted lots faster. Yet still the same result.

So spend money on ineffective measures? Or on effective ones?

Open back up. And:

a) massively donat vaccinations to third world countries so that this doesn’t happen again;

b) accelerate the finding out of whether Om is more dangerous than previous.

Let’s let reason and science guide us. Not loose our heads please.

Scottish govt says their six cases are not linked to travel, so community transmission.

b) accelerate the finding out of whether Om is more dangerous than previous.

In fairness, I doubt this process can go any faster. It's not that they're being inefficient, it's just that it genuinely takes time.

Agree @puppeteer it is very clear closing borders and travel restrictions merely delay. For some countries that gives them time to get more vaccines etc

The G7 should come together to get vaccines out everywhere.

We should get boosters and 12-15 double jabbed

accelerate the finding out of whether Om is more dangerous than previous.

That requires people to catch it and be followed up. I don’t see how that can be any faster.

@theDudesmummy

Flightradar24 is showing tonight's Air France as cancelled already...

Is this the flight she was booked for?

Tomorrow some BA flights resume.

What are AF telling her?

She still has not told me exactly which day she was booked, her boyfriend was booked for Saturday so he has obviously missed his flight. She has gone back to not answering her phone now (even though it is her birthday today).

@PiffleWiffleWoozle

Apparently health officials are currently investigating 75 probable omicron cases in the uk and another 150 possible cases.

😱 Is there a source for this @RedToothBrush or is that something you have heard behind the scenes?

DailyMail and Sun are reporting but I do think its probably credible / likely.

Harry Cole @mrharrycole
NEW: Health chiefs confirm a third case of the new Omicron Covid strain in the UK — amid fears there are already hundreds of others.

> 75 “probable” cases of the mutant variant have been flagged with > 150 “possible” others, according to gov sources.

Harry Cole is well connected and has good sources. I don't think this nonsense. I think it likely to be true and for other news outlets to report similar over the course of the day once their correspondents have checked with their sources if its true.

Thanks Red that definitely sounds credible/likely.

I think if we are seeing community cases in Scotland then that number is more likely than what had already have been reported

It’s still unknown though what the variables are so not all just bad yet

…Already reported

Scotland looks like has community transmission with cases not linked to travel found there.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59457332.amp

Is anyone actually going to be surprised when we find lots of cases?

If she did her PCR test yesterday, as she said she was going to, she only has a small window of time to get a flight, until she will have to get a further PCR. So it is very unclear what will happen...

No I suspect it has been around awhile and is behind the spike in central Europe in the Netherlands/Austria etc. I imagine it is already fairly rife in Europe and has probably driven the last couple of week

Quartz wouldn’t they know which variant was driving those spikes?

If would be ridiculous if half of Europe was experiencing a huge spike driven by a new variant and they hadn't picked it up via testing.

Well done South Africa for sounding the alarm!

@Quartz2208

No I suspect it has been around awhile and is behind the spike in central Europe in the Netherlands/Austria etc. I imagine it is already fairly rife in Europe and has probably driven the last couple of week

Why would it be omicron over delta?

Not if sequencing had stopped - I am not sure how much was being done. I thought the UK had definitely stopped - the US never did much not sure about Europe. Now we are arent the cases and lack of links showing that actually it must have been around awhile

That is the argument South Africa have about how unfair it is that flights have stopped. They were the ones doing the investigating

@MarshaBradyo

Quartz wouldn’t they know which variant was driving those spikes?

The UK is doing a substantial amount of the WORLD's genetic sequencing so its a plausible argument. Where I might have my doubts about whether its omicron or delta is even if they aren't sequencing most countries will have testing which should have noticed a substantial amount of cases with the dropped S gene.

Also the pattern of cases has travelled east to west with the furthest most countries in the EU already having had massive spikes and starting to decline (partly due to restrictions). If it did orginate in an HIV carrier in southern africa which is the theory, you would expect the pattern of case spikes to travel west to east because that follows patterns of international travel. Its possible that something different happened but I'm not sure I buy it.

So i personally, don't think its Omicron thats driving spikes in Europe. Yet.

@ChequerBoard well the people who discovered it originally have only reported mild cases that didn’t even require hospitalisation. If it’s already here and is as transmissible as they think then what good do you think closing the borders is going to do?

@Quartz2208

Not if sequencing had stopped - I am not sure how much was being done. I thought the UK had definitely stopped - the US never did much not sure about Europe. Now we are arent the cases and lack of links showing that actually it must have been around awhile

That is the argument South Africa have about how unfair it is that flights have stopped. They were the ones doing the investigating

I didn’t realise it had stopped? Where did you hear that can you remember

I googled and we’re doing 60,000 a week currently but that doesn’t really confirm either way

OK, she has now called. They have rebooked for 12 December and seem to believe that AF will definitely be flying again by then. They delayed the PCR after making this decusion. They seem to have wangled a way to continue their studies online until then. I am going to stop worrying about her, apart from hoping flights resume by then...

I too think S gene dropout would have been picked up if driving spike

Here or there

@Quartz2208

No I suspect it has been around awhile and is behind the spike in central Europe in the Netherlands/Austria etc. I imagine it is already fairly rife in Europe and has probably driven the last couple of week

Unlikely, this variant can be picked up on pcr tests even without full sequencing.

@ElectraBlue

I just don't understand the hysteria and some the narratives are just bizarre.

The new variant has just been identified but it is likely it has been circulating for a good while which is why cases are being picked up everywhere now. All the cases have been mild and people have recovered which is why the variant was only picked up recently.

So why is the media/government narrative selling it like it has only starting spreading this week (which makes it sound like a dramatic explosion) and that it is lethal (when Covid has a 90% plus recovery rate and this variant has seen mild cases only?)

This is why I think people are getting fed up with this. The rampant scaremongering rather than a calm and objective reporting of the facts.

These are reasonable questions.