New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

@ElectraBlue completely agree.

My daughter is in contact with some of the scientists in SA, including vaccine scientists, and they are pretty upbeat about it all (the danger of Omicron) and feel the flight bans etc were way over the top and anyway pointless. I guess we will have to see...

@theDudesmummy

My daughter is in contact with some of the scientists in SA, including vaccine scientists, and they are pretty upbeat about it all (the danger of Omicron) and feel the flight bans etc were way over the top and anyway pointless. I guess we will have to see...

I have been following your daughter's saga lol. Hope she is able to get back to Europe ok.

In answer to what ElectraBlue I would put this into some context: its estimated that there were at least 10,000 cases in New York City before the first case of covid was even identified. They think it was at least 3 months before the number of cases reached a critical mass that caused enough suspicion of there being a problem. No there wasn't much testing, but there wasn't enough people coming to hospital with severe covid to set alarm bells ringing. It just looked like something else early on.

We are testing now, so we'd expect to pick up a new variant far quicker. But in comparing covid with covid this job of deciding whether one is worse than the other, you have some difficulty early on. One covid case looks much like another covid case. Or even if there is unusal presentation, unless you have enough of them, you can only go on ancedotes until you have data.

It will still be some time before we have enough observed cases to be able to make an assessment that this variant causes covid to be more or less severe. It really is too early to make that scientific analysis to any degree of accuracy, even if we know that there is a substantial number of cases circulating in Southern Africa.

We also know that the is a genetic advantage and a younger population in the Southern African population to surviving covid to begin with. This does mean there is likely to be a lower number of cases needing hospitalisation compared to an outbreak of a similar size in Western Europe in particular. Again that makes it harder to identify a problem. We might find this variant is far more troublesome in the UK as a result of the size of our aging South Asian population.

I do agree there is a certain amount of winding up the public on this. I don't think the right questions are being asked on the whole. But I also very much err on the side of caution on jumping to conclusions and putting in new restrictions and very much think things need to be put into context. I'm not panicked. Concerned yes but not panicked. I would be more alarmed if the government weren't taking it seriously tbh given its genetic profile. I also am sympathetic that the government needs to be seen to do things at this stage, even if they are likely pointless, for purely political reasons. They need to look in control and on top of things. Even if it turns out they aren't...

[quote bumbleymummy]@ChequerBoard well the people who discovered it originally have only reported mild cases that didn’t even require hospitalisation. If it’s already here and is as transmissible as they think then what good do you think closing the borders is going to do?[/quote]

Slow it down whilst the actual scientists assess the evidence about the new variant so we know what we are dealing with. We need to know what impact Omicron could have on our health system before let it run rampant through the population.

We already have a health system teetering on the edge of collapse struggling to gear up for what will be an incredibly challenging winter. The Royal College of Emergency Medicine published a report this month which estimated that 4,519 patients had died after waiting more than 12 hours in emergency departments in England in 2020-2021. The queues of ambulances outside A&E are going to get worse over winter, that mean stroke patients, RTAs etc dying unnecessarily because they can't get through the doors of the hospital.

Let's hope Omicron is mild but let's actually gather some evidence from a comparable population before we assert that as a fact.

Well she seems to believe that the flights will be back to normal by 12 December, so we can just hope.

Remember we have the health and scientific side of this, but we also have the political optics of it too.

The government want to look like they have learned lessons and are acting quickly. Just so they can say 'oh look what we did'.

I think you have to look to their actions more carefully though. If they were being serious about stopping this firmly they would have introduced working from home immediately.

The fact they didn't reveals where they are more accurately - its about public crowd control.

If your booster campaign is somewhat lagging and behind were it should be, then actually a kick up the backside with a bit of a scare isn't the worst thing...

@ChequerBoard yeah, it’s a shame we didn’t invest some of the billions wasted on T&T and implementing vaccine passports on better preparing the health service. And it’s pretty clear that border closures did little to impact spread. It’s a bit silly to keep repeating things and hoping for different results.

It is political I agree although I’ve heard criticism from both sides this morning

• airline industry for acting without data and ineffective
• teaching union for no masks in classroom

I think since we don’t know this is ok as a reaction

Although I agree it is likely in many places by now

@RedToothBrush

Remember we have the health and scientific side of this, but we also have the political optics of it too.

The government want to look like they have learned lessons and are acting quickly. Just so they can say 'oh look what we did'.

I think you have to look to their actions more carefully though. If they were being serious about stopping this firmly they would have introduced working from home immediately.

The fact they didn't reveals where they are more accurately - its about public crowd control.

If your booster campaign is somewhat lagging and behind were it should be, then actually a kick up the backside with a bit of a scare isn't the worst thing...

I suspect you're right.

I’ve also been musing on idea of being led by microscope eg the mutation was described as ‘horrific’ by one scientist

Yet real life experience in SA is feeling different from some quarters

I really hope this translates to this being ok but if it is I wonder if we’ll keep reacting to same level in future over mutations without the data

Maybe it will become standard response or more push back

Do you have a crystal ball, @bumbleymummy ? Billions wasn’t wasted on T&T for a laugh. When cases were low, it would have worked . Similarly vaccine passports when there was evidence of only minor vaccine escape. Then along came delta and it was useless. Border closures may not keep a virus out, but does buy some time and you don’t want to import hundreds if not thousands of new cases and allow them to seed around the country.

One is always reacting when it’s a novel virus. People are working damned hard in laboratories and it’s easy for you to sit there and do sneery “yeahs” when I’m sure you have all the answers and could see quite clearly what the right move would be.

I think the closing of borders has been a domino effect. We closed ours, partly because of the uncertainty but mostly due to optics.

Others followed suit and no one wants to be the country that didn't react when everyone else did - a panicked, domino effect....

Please can we limit coronavirus threads to RedToothbrush’s posts only?! Everything she says is sensible.

Agree that public behaviour is a huge factor. We have avoided the riots and angry demos that have happened in Europe. The behaviour in the Netherlands is quite out of national character, so heaven knows what would have happened here with greater restrictions. Now, of course, they may be needed once more, but the Omicron thing will spook a decent proportion of sceptics/agitators into acceptance.

FT now also reporting lots of suspected cases in the pipeline.

www.ft.com/content/82d66181-0502-48c6-a77d-6f303d1ae44f
UK poised to expand Covid booster programme to all adults
Further six cases of the new Omicron coronavirus variant confirmed in Scotland

The booster programme will be expanded to all over-18s and the six-month gap between second and third doses will be “substantially reduced” to maximise immunity as the Omicron variant begins to spread, following new guidance from the government’s vaccine advisers.

and

Children aged between 12 and 15 years old will also be offered a second dose of a Covid jab. The advice is expected to be handed down by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation on Monday, after the group convened an emergency meeting on Saturday.

and

Nine cases of the new variant had been identified in the UK by Monday, with three confirmed in England over the weekend. Dozens more are being treated as suspected cases, people familiar with the matter have told the Financial Times.

Ok, I've also got this tweet but I don't know where she's got this sourced from (its a poster I've followed a long time who I trust in terms of being good at sourcing her tweets and understanding journalism/politics/science even if I don't always agree with what she says or her political views).

Fionna O'Leary @fascinatorfun
About 40 travellers appeared to show, in preliminary assays, the presence of Omicron. Dozens of cases suspected.

One Bedfordshire case has no immediate travel history.

One returned from SA on 16th Nov!
How long incubation?
2 days not enough?

I would hestitate on saying this part is definitely true, but again, I think this is where this story is going to head very quickly in the next couple of days.

Its being reported Austria has 1 confirmed case and 30 suspected cases. Whilst the Czech Republic has one suspected case in a returnee from Egypt. Egypt is perhaps significant because its also being reported that 'the first case in Belgium was a woman who traveled from Egypt (via Turkey) on November 11. However, because she developed symptoms 11 days later, the possibility that she was infected in Belgium cannot be excluded'.

bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/
This is a map with details of how many cases and how many suspected cases.

Its interesting...

Hard to get away from the point that this has been around for a while...

@RedToothBrush is it almost better that it's been around a while?

Stopping direct flights is silly imho. Closing the border only works if you immediately also go into a full lockdown for at least a couple of weeks. And then you are still playing catch up on all the cases that are already out there.

Even then NZ is proving that this strategy hasn't really worked with Delta. If Omicron is more infectious, then realistically how much are the measures we've put in going to slow the spread to a significant level?

Honestly, thats our reality and I am yet to see a counter argument that I can say makes me give much pause for thought and consideration.

We have massive international hubs which people are moving through from all over the world. Strained Brits (and other nationalities) in Southern Africa are going to try and take any flight possible to get out and then take a connecting flight to the UK. What is that going to do? There is a certain flawed argument to a level which is almost genuis in its stupidity here.

If there is concerns flights shouldn't stop. Non-essential travel should be stopped and quaratine mandatory. You want to be monitoring those travellers not leaving them in limbo and to spread the problem even further in the process.

The logic of many people on this, kind of boggles my mind. You need routes immediately set up for the managed return foreign nationals. Not flight bans and routes stopped.

[quote 1990butgrey]@RedToothBrush is it almost better that it's been around a while?[/quote]
Well it depends on whether its better or worse than Delta! Which we don't know.

If it less severe and displaces Delta, then arguably its a blessing. If it is worse and evades vaccines and treatments its a bad thing.

I don't think its really worth thinking about too much apart from the question of 'how long' and 'what could we do better for future pandemics'. We have to get on and deal with it either way!

Can people disguise from which country they’ve originally travelled from? If you book a flight from Pretoria to Morocco, then book another separate one to the UK, would they pick up on it? Especially if you have a British passport.

@DottyHarmer

Can people disguise from which country they’ve originally travelled from? If you book a flight from Pretoria to Morocco, then book another separate one to the UK, would they pick up on it? Especially if you have a British passport.

Surely they pick up on that.

When will the scientists know if this is milder or worse than delta ?
I keep hearing different things and people are confused.

Ireland hasn’t yet banned flights from SA, so if you could get to Ireland, you’re within the common travel area - that could be a route some people might take.

@the80sweregreat

When will the scientists know if this is milder or worse than delta ? I keep hearing different things and people are confused.

I read 2 to 8 weeks to get an understanding of what we are now dealing with.

Pfizer claims they can have a vaccine for Omicron in about 3 months.

Just published 8 mins ago:

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-six-omicron-variant-cases-detected-in-scotland-authorities-say-12482070
COVID-19: Community transmission suspected as UK Omicron cases detected with no travel history

Some of the cases in Scotland are thought to have no known travel history, suggesting they could have been transmitted within the country.

and

Meanwhile, a case in Brentwood, Essex, which was announced on Saturday, has been linked to Larchwood Primary School.

Specialist testing is being made available for all pupils and school staff. One class will be held remotely.

Bag met cat a while ago and they have departed company.

@QuentininQuarantino

Ireland hasn’t yet banned flights from SA, so if you could get to Ireland, you’re within the common travel area - that could be a route some people might take.

Best get on that plane bloody quick... not sure how long that will last...

www.independent.ie/news/number-of-suspected-omicron-cases-in-ireland-government-scrapping-antigen-test-subsidy-health-minister-41098757.html
Number of suspected Omicron cases in Ireland

A number of suspected cases of the Omicron Covid-19 variant have been identified in Ireland, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly has said.

Minister Donnelly said that a number of cases with the S-gene dropout evident in Omicron but not in Delta have been identified and have been sent for sequencing. The Minister said it’s very likely at least some of these will be the Omicron variant.

and

Ireland, in line with the EU, has limited travel to and from seven countries in Africa due to Omicron. These are South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.