New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Wingingthis]

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

@kirinm given how much this variant has mutated I think it’s probably wise that they’re poised to develop a vaccine based on newer strains, one is going to escape them sooner or later. Don’t forget current vaccines have been developed from strains in circulation in spring 2020.

I'm really sceptical about the report in the JP is all. It's the only place reporting it.

Your right to reserve judgement @kirinm, it’s still very early days and the pool of cases (and all the variables that go along with that) to draw data from is still small.

[quote manolantern]Another bumper thread estimates that even if Omicron is a worse variant, it wouldn't really have an impact on cases until February/March:

twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1465846728750510082[/quote]
Doesn't Lilico hold slightly wacky views?

@idiotfacelicker

My year 11 son was in tears last night over the uncertainty. Until recently they were absolutely assured exams were going ahead, and I'm sure they still will, but now this variant is making people speculate about lockdowns etc and now they are getting mixed messages.

He's a robust lad and I can't remember the last time he cried. These poor exam year children are being put through the ringer.

Poor him . I think lots of school pupils have memories of last year and it is hard not to imagine this year will go the same way.

We are all completely in the dark and will be for a bit longer yet.

Doesn't Lilico hold slightly wacky views?

I would tend to class him as 'fringe'. Sometimes interesting to see a different point of view and how others are thinking, but i dont think hes particularly representative of the mainstream.

As it goes I do think exams will most likely go ahead.

The problem is the isolation for oricrom laws are in place now until March. So i think that could badly affect some (not all) schools. And I doubt there will be adjustments for this. So yeah more controversy to come on that front. On the plus side Gavin Williamson isn't in charge anymore.

I have to say that although the law is controversial, its difficult to see what the alternative is because cases are only just staying stable with Delta's transmission level. The R of Omicron means we probably can't continue with the vaccinated being able to just test. Thats not considering the possibility of increased rate of vaccine breakthrough. So the threat of a steep growth in cases is pretty real as immunity wanes. So until they get through the booster program my suspicion is this will have to remain unless they have compelling information that omicron is significantly less severe and results in less hospitalisations.

Btw, being offered a booster by the end of Jan does not mean you will have the booster by the end of Jan. It means they will have opened it up for booking in. That suggests that the booster programme may well be actually still be going into February and March...

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-most-omicron-cases-are-mild-and-theres-no-evidence-to-suggest-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-against-the-variant-says-who-12483729

twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAGRkjjMgyJl

Live FT discussion re omicron

@RedToothBrush,

I am interested in this isolation idea with Omicron.

How will they know it is omicron? I don't think genotyping is that quick and, by the time you get the genotype, your isolation will probably be nearly over anyway.

Of course, if omicron massively dominates, I guess we are back to isolation with any contact.

Another confused piece of policy making.

How will they know it is omicron? I don't think genotyping is that quick and, by the time you get the genotype, your isolation will probably be nearly over anyway.

There’s a very quick test that looks at the s gene. If that’s negative, it’s essentially going to be positive for omicron.

[quote manolantern]Another bumper thread estimates that even if Omicron is a worse variant, it wouldn't really have an impact on cases until February/March:

twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1465846728750510082[/quote]
I've only glanced through the twitter thread but I don't think Dr Lilico knows much about epidemiology however good a mathematician he is. I would say he is broadly right that it will take a considerable amount of time for omicron to take hold in the UK if there are only a few cases at the moment.

He seems to have made a lot of assumptions with no real evidence (ie there are only 100 seed cases in the UK as of yesterday) and we really don't have the data yet to estimate the R0 of omicron accurately or the effect of vaccination on transmission of omicron.

I would rate his predictions as about as accurate as those made by @PrincessNutNuts on MN (that's not an insult, she clearly has a grasp of the basics). His calculations are so oversimplified that they are wildly inaccurate. He seems to have made the same mistake that she did in one of her calculations that he has forgotten to include immunity from infection.

From his tweets:

Let's begin by assuming a single unsegmented population. Let's assume that with behaviour modifications the R0 of delta is currently 5 & that we are at the HIT (80%).

R0 is constant It is the average number of people infected by an infectious person when nobody has immunity and everyone is susceptible, in a homogenous population. The R0 of delta is about 5. If you are taking into account things like behaviour modifications, you are taking about Re, the effective R number at the current time (which is what he is goes on to try and calculate). I guess what he means is that he is assuming behaviour modifcations will remain constant (which they won't, we have already reintroduced masks) but it suggests to me that he isn't an expert in epidemiology if he is using terms incorrectly and expressing things in inaccurate language.

I really have no idea why he is taking about the herd immunity threshold (HIT) here. It really isn't relevant to his calculations. He's just randomly decided that 80% of the population has immunity. It would be more accurate to estimate the level of immunity in the population by taking the actual data of the percentage of the population who has been vaccinated and the estimated percentage of the population who currently have antibodies from infection. The ONS publishes that data. The total percentage of the population with immunity was about 93% last time I checked.

Besides which, the HIT is only 80% if immunity is sterilising (ie you can't become infected if you have immunity) rather than partial so I am not sure he understands the term...

Let's assume that collective 80% immunity comes in two flavours: the triple-dose vaxxed (or double-dosed plus one infection or any equivalent variation) & the non-triple-dose-vaxxed ("the rest"). Let's assume they're half the population each by the time omicron gets going.

What about the infected and recovered? Although it's not clear whether he has just ignored them or is lumping them into the "non-triple-dose-vaxxed" and assuming that they (and the single vaxxed) have the same immunity levels as the double vaxxed (in his next tweet, he assumes all this group have "65% transmission protection").

I'm not going any further in dissecting his calculations. Yes, he's right, it will take some time for omicron to spread in the UK. If there really are only a handful of cases in the UK at the moment, it is unlikely to overwhelm us before Christmas, but he can't predict when it will really take hold with any accuracy at all from those calculations. He could have at least used the correct values for antibody levels in the population.

@kirinm

I'm really sceptical about the report in the JP is all. It's the only place reporting it.

Yes, there are doubts expressed about it here too:

twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1466065395182452740

Still it's a change from the usual to have supposed GOOD news that might not stand up. We're so used to terrible prophecies of doom being spread without any evidence behind them that it really stands out when the opposite happens.

Andrew Lilico's predictions of case rates this year have been proved right again and again. He has been the most accurate modeller there is. Look back and you will see the facts back this up.

@manolantern

Andrew Lilico's predictions of case rates this year have been proved right again and again. He has been the most accurate modeller there is. Look back and you will see the facts back this up.

Iirc he has a doctorate in game theory which is basically the mathematical discipline which relates to modelling and predictions? So you can't argue with his maths (although as said the initial assumptions they are based on may not be accurate)

@manolantern

Andrew Lilico's predictions of case rates this year have been proved right again and again. He has been the most accurate modeller there is. Look back and you will see the facts back this up.

I can't comment on his previous predictions as I haven't seen them.

Those tweets are not "modelling" or at, least not modelling in the sense of what epidemiologists actually do using huge amounts of data and complex computer programs. He is just doing basic calculations that a primary school child could do using the most basic and simplified form of the model that all epidemiological models are based on with some very rough estimates (and incorrect) data.

TBF, having looked at it again, I don't think he is claiming that he is making an accurate prediction. He is just doing some very rough calculations to illustrate the point that omicron is unlikely to have much of an impact before Christmas in the UK and it will likely take several months for it to start to take hold.

Another interesting read, again suggesting immune-escape will prove to be a more significant factor with Omicron than transmissibility:

twitter.com/trvrb/status/1466076761427304453

He is just doing some very rough calculations to illustrate the point that omicron is unlikely to have much of an impact before Christmas in the UK and it will likely take several months for it to start to take hold.

This is something that isn't rocket science tbf. I don't have a doctorate. I can manage to work out that we aren't going to go from a couple of hundred cases now to a situation where tens of thousands are in omicrom home jail in 25 days.

"omicrom home jail"

@RedToothBrush

He is just doing some very rough calculations to illustrate the point that omicron is unlikely to have much of an impact before Christmas in the UK and it will likely take several months for it to start to take hold.

This is something that isn't rocket science tbf. I don't have a doctorate. I can manage to work out that we aren't going to go from a couple of hundred cases now to a situation where tens of thousands are in omicrom home jail in 25 days.

Exactly.

I don't think he is actually claiming to predict that omicron wont start to have an impact until February/March just illustrating with a back of a fag packet type calculation that it will be some months. He's just making a point rather than a prediction.

There's nothing wrong with his maths @Bordois it's just that he is only doing some very basic arithmetic with huge assumptions and some inaccurate estimates (when more accurate estimates are avaialbe) rather than actually using a complex model and real data. I dont think he is claiming otherwise, he talks through his workings.

Random musing here, but dies anyone know if you in theory could have delta and omni at the same time? Or in very close succession?

Now in America too.... Surprised it took them so long!

"The Covid-19 case was identified by the California and San Francisco health departments in a person who had traveled to South Africa and returned on Nov. 22, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a release. The individual, who was fully vaccinated and had mild symptoms that are improving, has been isolating since testing positive on Nov. 29. All close contacts have tested negative thus far, health officials said.

At a White House briefing, Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease official, said to his knowledge, the person had not received a booster."

@IncessantNameChanger

Random musing here, but dies anyone know if you in theory could have delta and omni at the same time? Or in very close succession?

Yes, you could, there have been a few reported cases of co-infections. You would have to be pretty unlucky though...

Second thread here

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4416171-Omicron-New-Variant-2?watched=1