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New Covid variant *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

998 replies

Wingingthis · 25/11/2021 11:56

Can anyone talk some sense about how dangerous this is or is it just the media over exaggerating?

OP posts:
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herecomesthsun · 30/11/2021 19:58

I'm not panicking.

But we do still need more data than that (as is well discussed by the scientists in the recent broadcasts, we are waiting on more information)

1990butgrey · 30/11/2021 20:01

@manolantern I could actually cry, that sounds like very very good news

RedToothBrush · 30/11/2021 20:19

Ignore the headline on this. The detail here is more interesting and promising.

apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-health-travel-africa-fe004c1e59fa5cd73fbc41a9efe86f99

“We’ve seen a sharp increase in cases for the past 10 days. So far they have mostly been very mild cases, with patients having flu-like symptoms: dry coughs, fever, night sweats, a lot of body pains,” said Dr. Unben Pillay, a general practitioner in Gauteng province where 81% of the new cases have been reported.

“Most of these patients have been treated at home,” Pillay told an online press briefing Monday. “Vaccinated people tend to do much better. We have not seen a vast increase in hospitalizations, but this is still early days. Hospitalizations often come several days after a rise in confirmed cases.”

and

The hotspot for the new surge is Gauteng’s Tshwane metropolitan area, incorporating the capital, Pretoria. The “vast majority” of those hospitalized there have been unvaccinated people, said Waasila Jassat of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

“Of recent hospitalizations 87% have been unvaccinated, 13% have been vaccinated,” Jassat said of the 455 hospital admissions in the Tshwane area in the past two weeks.^

Vaccination appears to have also helped people avoid infection, she said.

Of South Africa’s 60 million people, 16.5 million are vaccinated and the number of fully vaccinated who are testing positive is very small, said Nicholas Crisp, the acting director general of the department of health. “It is a very small number of those people who tested positive. It’s minute in comparison to unvaccinated people.”

Largethighsbadeyes · 30/11/2021 20:37

That's is brilliant news 😊 hopefully the headlines will start looking a bit more positive now

OutOfBounds · 30/11/2021 20:39

The 9 Glasgow cases are all linked to a birthday party on the 20th of November- they tested on the 23rd.

Incidentally COP26 ended on the 13th.

If it's been in the country for at least 10 days and we're not seeing a huge increase in the next couple of days then I think that's potentially very positive news?

Icewiththat · 30/11/2021 20:44

I’m so glad I came back to this thread and read the last few posts. Promising news! Let’s hope it continues…

rrhuth · 30/11/2021 20:57

Is it not the case that so far all variants of covid have been mostly mild cases, but the issue is likely to be the increased transmissibility and teh impact on our healthcare system?

MarshaBradyo · 30/11/2021 20:59

Really good to read the last few posts.

Here’s hoping it gets more certain over next few weeks.

Overthebow · 30/11/2021 21:05

[quote manolantern]"There are indications that individuals fully vaccinated against corona within six months or with the booster are also protected against the Omicron variant, [Israeli] Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said on Tuesday

... Later in the evening, a report by Channel 12 said the Pfizer vaccine is just slightly less effective in preventing infection with Omicron than with Delta – 90% as opposed to 95% – while it is as effective – around 93% – in preventing serious symptoms at least for those vaccinated with a booster.

According to the report, the ability of the variant to infect is higher than Delta but not as much as feared – around 1.3 times higher.

At the same time, those not inoculated have a 2.4 times greater chance of developing serious symptoms, a significant figure."

www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/covid-1st-data-about-vaccine-efficacy-against-omicron-expected-tuesday-687392[/quote]
This is brilliant news. Fingers crossed for this!

AllaboutMary · 30/11/2021 21:08

🤞🏼🤞🏼🤞🏼🤞🏼

kirinm · 01/12/2021 07:30

I cannot see that being reported anywhere else. That would be pretty amazing news re vaccine immunity if true. Is it reported anywhere else?

Cornettoninja · 01/12/2021 07:54

The news in general from Israel has been pretty accurate regarding data from vaccines so hopefully this will be as positive as it sounds.

Though I think the government are being slightly optimistic about boosting ‘everyone’ by January, it’s great that there is such a push right now.

twosticksandanapple · 01/12/2021 09:01

It doesn't sound like great news for the 40% of the population that have not been vaccinated. Any more news on the higher proportion of under 2s that are ending up in S African hospitals?

1.3 x infection rate and 2.4 x severe illness sounds pretty terrible to me.

manolantern · 01/12/2021 09:22

Another bumper thread estimates that even if Omicron is a worse variant, it wouldn't really have an impact on cases until February/March:

twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1465846728750510082

PiffleWiffleWoozle · 01/12/2021 09:35

Agree @twosticksandanapple

I would like to know more about impact on children who are too young to have been vaccinated in the U.K. (unless CEV etc)

Other countries are offering vaccines to children, so maybe an increased risk will change the balance in the U.K. of risk vs benefit assessment for vaccines for young children.

Largethighsbadeyes · 01/12/2021 09:49

I also want them to hurry up and vaccinate the under 12s.

However I also don't want my child missing out on any more school, family gatherings and to have his one hobby cancelled again. So if the news above re vaccination success etc means that the government don't bring in further restrictions and his school gets rid of bubbles again which they brought back in at the start of this week then I still think it's very positive news

idiotfacelicker · 01/12/2021 09:53

My year 11 son was in tears last night over the uncertainty. Until recently they were absolutely assured exams were going ahead, and I'm sure they still will, but now this variant is making people speculate about lockdowns etc and now they are getting mixed messages.

He's a robust lad and I can't remember the last time he cried. These poor exam year children are being put through the ringer.

NearlyAlwaysInsane · 01/12/2021 09:57

Great re the good news and let's hope we get back to as close to normal as fast as possible.

DottyHarmer · 01/12/2021 09:59

It is horrible for the young. Some students have had a really crappy time. Not what they had hoped for at all. And the exam uncertainty is awful. Dd said her A Level results were worthless because nearly everyone was bunged a good grade.

However, we just don’t know. Yesterday one journalist asked Boris, “When will this be over?” The only person who could tell would be a time traveller coming here from the future.

idiotfacelicker · 01/12/2021 10:08

I know that no one can provide any certainty about when it will be over but they could provide certainty to exams years by going with CAGs again if there is any doubt whatsover about exams taking place.

My son has done half his GCSE course online, constant cover teachers, time at home waiting for COVID test results and now the prospect of contact isolations again and no confirmation on how his grades will be decided and even if exams are on they've already been told the grade boundaries are to be dropped so he knows no matter how well he does, he's unlikely to match what an equivalent student achieved last year.

It's shit but there is radio silence about that group. No one cares Sad

Sorry, I'm ranting here because I can't in real life as I have friends be family whose kids got GCSEs and a levels last year and by speaking like this I fear it would come across as denigrating their children's grades, which I wouldn't want to do.

Cornettoninja · 01/12/2021 10:17

@twosticksandanapple

It doesn't sound like great news for the 40% of the population that have not been vaccinated. Any more news on the higher proportion of under 2s that are ending up in S African hospitals?

1.3 x infection rate and 2.4 x severe illness sounds pretty terrible to me.

That’s a fair observation, I’ve a 5yr old myself whose class is currently experiencing covid working through it. It’s like Russian roulette, every new positive triggers another round of PCR’s but they all keep attending whilst they’re waiting for results so it’s a never ending cycle. It’s painful.

I suppose the optimistic view on that is that the vaccinated population should still provide some sort of buffer and there is the option of extending vaccines down to five year olds should it be proved that this variant is more dangerous in the very young. Still very concerning for parents of pre-school children though.

(I’m in favour of opening up vaccinations to 5+ btw)

kirinm · 01/12/2021 10:24

Why is Pfizer working on a new vaccine that will be ready in 6 weeks if the results from Israel are correct?

Largethighsbadeyes · 01/12/2021 10:30

Because it will take time to be sure? Because it's better to get working on one straight away rather than wait?

PurpleDaisies · 01/12/2021 10:30

@kirinm

Why is Pfizer working on a new vaccine that will be ready in 6 weeks if the results from Israel are correct?
Because we don’t know it’s correct. It’s far to early for that. Much more data is needed. Why wouldn’t the vaccine companies try to scroll better vaccines? They don’t have to be used if not necessary.
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