Apparently health officials are currently investigating 75 probable omicron cases in the uk and another 150 possible cases.
Given that it was only apparently discovered Wednesday, and countries added to the red list and flights immediately stopped Thursday and we have the most extensive testing in the world for variants it does highlight how bloody useless border closures are to the uk because we have so many people passing through.
There is quite a bit of concern about how travel PCRs will pick up Omicron cases promptly enough to limit the numbers who ignore quarantine rules awaiting a negative result. People will go nuts if they are waiting days and days. Apparently this variant is fortunate in that in some regular testing systems they get information about a positive but there is a protein missing which distinguishes it from other variants meaning they don't necessarily have to send these samples for sequencing too before saying its a case of concern. They can reasonably say this is a case of omicron and then confirm it later. The problem is not all labs are testing for this protein so this raises the question of if you test positive on return to the uk how long do you wait for that result or do you get informed you are positive but still have to isolate pending a further test to confirm the variant - and how long this will take?
So back to my original point and 'probable' cases. What is this about and why are these suspicious cases that they haven't yet confirmed?
Are these close contacts or people who have returned from Southern Africa in the last week? Or are they positive cases that have been picked up by labs purely for this missing protein and have now been sent for sequencing? And crucially when are these dated and have these people been told? The longer it takes to get a result the more likely people are to just ignore self isolating rules...
The rumour certainly suggests we are about to get told that omicron is already spreading fast within the UK and that efforts to slow the spread using masks and isolation by variant type are going to be pretty damn useless.
I can well see advice to work from home where possible being likely this side of Christmas as its what SAGE say is the measure which has the greatest impact on transmission before you start to hit more strict restrictions.
I still don't think we will see a Christmas lockdown but a post Christmas lockdown is something that possibly is back on the cards. Nor do i think that the government will seek to reimpose social distancing or vaccine passports for pubs / restaurants in England this side of Christmas. The gamble being that omicron may turn out to be less severe than previous variants. I was reading last night that the case fatality rate for each new dominant variant (original, alpha and delta) has roughly halved (though i cavet this by saying that could be merely flawed data as testing has become more comprehensive or simply from treatment improving).
How long it will take to establish how much of a threat omicron is, is a massive issue now and I think its going to get really politicised with one camp pushing for hard restrictions immediately and another urging patience and monitoring first before acting rashly. The government is likely to be in the later camp wanting to protect the December economy which is crucial. Labour will have a lot in the shut everything camp but i wonder whether the shadow cabinet will also take the gamble. (I'm thinking the LD will go hard line and the Scottish and Welsh governments will go hard line). And i do wonder if government back benchers will break ranks.
Things are going to get fracious quickly. This week is going to be extremely testing (sic) if those numbers of 75 and 150 are right and cases are going to rapidly spiral at an alarming speed.
I wonder how long the government will manage public fears on this one. Any new restrictions without significant credible data will spark civil unrest of some sort. Whether that manifests as protests or more spontaneous rioting is a question with no answer.
Am i worried? Concerned at this stage but still a way to go before I start to think we are in trouble. I'm still reasonably optimistic at this point - we shall see if that lasts the week! I am still thinking Christmas isn't going to be disrupted for most people. Test positive or get pinged as a close contact and you will be stuffed. The trouble is I do see the likelihood of many ignoring advice and actively avoiding testing particularly if we hear of lengthening test turnaround times. Which I do think is almost inevitable tbh. I really think turnaround times is the thing to watch this week - especially on those rumoured omicron cases. It matters hugely in terms of how quickly the situation will go downhill both in practical terms and political terms.
I really think we will have huge problems with lab capacity over Christmas too with extra demand from both outgoing and returning holiday makers at the same time as lab workers take Christmas leave. Its normally a peak time for travel. I can well see a lot of people out of pocket missing flights out and lots of returning passengers waiting up to a week for a negative result. If they can book a test at all...
Fun times.